Vegetation and climate change on the Bolivian Altiplano between 108,000 and 18,000 years ago

A 90,000-yr record of environmental change before 18,000 cal yr B.P. has been constructed using pollen analyses from a sediment core obtained from Salar de Uyuni (3653 m above sea level) on the Bolivian Altiplano. The sequence consists of alternating mud and salt, which reflect shifts between wet and dry periods. Low abundances of aquatic species between 108,000 and 50,000 yr ago (such as Myriophyllum and Isoëtes) and marked fluctuations in Pediastrum suggest generally dry conditions dominated by saltpans. Between 50,000 yr ago and 36,000 cal yr B.P., lacustrine sediments become increasingly dominant. The transition to the formation of paleolake “Minchin” begins with marked rises in Isoëtes and Myriophyllum, suggesting a lake of moderate depth. Similarly, between 36,000 and 26,000 cal yr B.P., the transition to paleolake Tauca is also initiated by rises in Isoëtes and Myriophyllum; the sustained presence of Isoëtes indicates the development of flooded littoral communities associated with a lake maintained at a higher water level. Polylepis tarapacana-dominated communities were probably an important component of the Altiplano terrestrial vegetation during much of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and previous wet phases

Continental-Scale Assessment of Risk to the Australian Odonata from Climate Change

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56–69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3–17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species

Risk factors for hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis in England: a population-based birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the timing and duration of RSV bronchiolitis hospital admission among term and preterm infants in England and to identify risk factors for bronchiolitis admission. DESIGN: A population-based birth cohort with follow-up to age 1 year, using the Hospital Episode Statistics database. SETTING: 71 hospitals across England. PARTICIPANTS: We identified 296618 individual birth records from 2007/08 and linked to subsequent hospital admission records during the first year of life. RESULTS: In our cohort there were 7189 hospital admissions with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis, 24.2 admissions per 1000 infants under 1 year (95%CI 23.7-24.8), of which 15% (1050/7189) were born preterm (47.3 bronchiolitis admissions per 1000 preterm infants (95% CI 44.4-50.2)). The peak age group for bronchiolitis admissions was infants aged 1 month and the median was age 120 days (IQR = 61-209 days). The median length of stay was 1 day (IQR = 0-3). The relative risk (RR) of a bronchiolitis admission was higher among infants with known risk factors for severe RSV infection, including those born preterm (RR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.8-2.0) compared with infants born at term. Other conditions also significantly increased risk of bronchiolitis admission, including Down's syndrome (RR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-3.7) and cerebral palsy (RR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-4.0). CONCLUSIONS: Most (85%) of the infants who are admitted to hospital with bronchiolitis in England are born at term, with no known predisposing risk factors for severe RSV infection, although risk of admission is higher in known risk groups. The early age of bronchiolitis admissions has important implications for the potential impact and timing of future active and passive immunisations. More research is needed to explain why babies born with Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy are also at higher risk of hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis

Novel community data in ecology -- properties and prospects

New technologies for acquiring biological information such as eDNA, acoustic or optical sensors, make it possible to generate spatial community observations at unprecedented scales. The potential of these novel community data to standardize community observations at high spatial, temporal, and taxonomic resolution and at large spatial scale ('many rows and many columns') has been widely discussed, but so far, there has been little integration of these data with ecological models and theory. Here, we review these developments and highlight emerging solutions, focusing on statistical methods for analyzing novel community data, in particular joint species distribution models; the new ecological questions that can be answered with these data; and the potential implications of these developments for policy and conservation

CSF1R-dependent macrophages control postnatal somatic growth and organ maturation

Homozygous mutation of the Csf1r locus (Csf1rko) in mice, rats and humans leads to multiple postnatal developmental abnormalities. To enable analysis of the mechanisms underlying the phenotypic impacts of Csf1r mutation, we bred a rat Csf1rko allele to the inbred dark agouti (DA) genetic background and to a Csf1r-mApple reporter transgene. The Csf1rko led to almost complete loss of embryonic macrophages and ablation of most adult tissue macrophage populations. We extended previous analysis of the Csf1rko phenotype to early postnatal development to reveal impacts on musculoskeletal development and proliferation and morphogenesis in multiple organs. Expression profiling of 3-week old wild-type (WT) and Csf1rko livers identified 2760 differentially expressed genes associated with the loss of macrophages, severe hypoplasia, delayed hepatocyte maturation, disrupted lipid metabolism and the IGF1/IGF binding protein system. Older Csf1rko rats developed severe hepatic steatosis. Consistent with the developmental delay in the liver Csf1rko rats had greatly-reduced circulating IGF1. Transfer of WT bone marrow (BM) cells at weaning without conditioning repopulated resident macrophages in all organs, including microglia in the brain, and reversed the mutant phenotypes enabling long term survival and fertility. WT BM transfer restored osteoclasts, eliminated osteopetrosis, restored bone marrow cellularity and architecture and reversed granulocytosis and B cell deficiency. Csf1rko rats had an elevated circulating CSF1 concentration which was rapidly reduced to WT levels following BM transfer. However, CD43hi non-classical monocytes, absent in the Csf1rko, were not rescued and bone marrow progenitors remained unresponsive to CSF1. The results demonstrate that the Csf1rko phenotype is autonomous to BM-derived cells and indicate that BM contains a progenitor of tissue macrophages distinct from hematopoietic stem cells. The model provides a unique system in which to define the pathways of development of resident tissue macrophages and their local and systemic roles in growth and organ maturation

Glacial-Interglacial changes in moisture balance and the impact on vegetation in the southern hemisphere tropical Andes (Bolivia/Peru)

A palynological investigation of the last glacial-interglacial cycle in the southern hemisphere tropical Andes reveals changes in the moisture balance as the main driver in vegetation change. Thirty accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates, biostratigraphy and tephra correlation reveal that a 119 m sediment core recovered from the Huiñaimarca sub-basin of Lake Titicaca (16.0° to 17.5° S, 68.5° to 70° W; 3810 masl) contains sediments covering > 151,000 years. Correlation of aridity indicators with precessional variations in insolation is used to fine tune the structure of the age-depth curve within this period. Variations in Isoëtes concentration (above/below 10,000 grains/cm3) identify the extent of shallow water environments. Examination of another palaeolimnological indicator (Pediastrum) and consideration of the bathymetry of the Huiñaimarca sub-basin allow the reconstruction of lake-level fluctuations. These data indicate five wet/dry cycles between c. 151,000 and 14,200 cal yr BP. High stands are suggested during the transition into (c. 134,000 cal yr BP), and out of (c. 114,000 and 92,000 cal yr BP), the last interglacial, and during full glacial conditions (c. 70,000 and 45,000 cal yr BP). These cycles are superimposed on a general trend of deepening lake levels through the glacial period. This interpretation is supported by correlation with sediments from Salar de Uyuni (20°S, 68°W; 3653 masl). The youngest wet episode is concurrent with palaeolake Minchin (c. 45,000 cal yr BP), with further evidence for an additional wet period commencing c. 28,000 cal yr BP, concomitant with palaeolake Tauca. The timing of lake level fluctuations is also supported by palaeoshoreline reconstructions from the Uyuni-Poopó region. However, our data do not suggest a major peak in lake level in Huiñaimarca during the Ouki lake cycle (c. 120,000–98,000 cal yr BP) as inferred from U–Th ages obtained from palaeoshorelines around Lago Poopó. The most extreme dry event occurs during the last interglacial period and resulted in a sedimentary hiatus tentatively dated to c. 121,000–129,000 cal yr BP. The observed wet/dry cycles are shown to have a marked and rapid impact on the vegetation. The aridity of the last interglacial promoted a community dominated by Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthacae, with no modern Andean analogue. Polylepis/Acaena pollen is also shown to fluctuate markedly (0–20%), particularly during the transitions into, and out of, the last interglacial. It is probable that this pollen taxon is primarily representative of the high altitude arboreal genus Polylepis, which is a key component of highly biodiverse Andean woodlands today. Rapid fluctuations indicate the sensitivity of this ecosystem to natural environmental pressure and potential vulnerability to future human impact and climate change. The 100,000 year (eccentricity) solar cycle is shown to be the major controlling factor in moisture balance and vegetation over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. However, significant fluctuations in moisture balance are also evident on timescales considerably shorter than the full glacial-interglacial cycle. We have linked these to precessional (21,000 year) forcing. Nevertheless, precise independent dating during the full glacial cycle is required to confirm the importance of this forcing mechanism. Introduction The tropical Andes play a fundamental role in global climate systems today (Zhou and Lau, 1998, Lenters and Cook, 1999, Garreaud et al., 2003), yet the contribution of different mechanisms affecting these systems in the past remains controversial. Debate has focused primarily on the nature of the moisture balance in the Andes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, c. 26,000–21,000 cal yr BP/22,000–18,000 14C yr BP). Geomorphological, sedimentological, biological and geochemical data have been presented from terrestrial and aquatic records in support of both wetter and drier conditions (e.g. Clapperton, 1993, Thompson et al., 1998, Heine, 2000, Smith et al., 2005a, Smith et al., 2005b). In the southern hemisphere tropical Andes, records from: i) Lake Siberia (17° 50′S, 64° 43′W; Mourguiart and Ledru, 2003) and ii) Huiñaimarca (16° 20′S, 68° 57′W; Argollo and Mourguiart, 2000) have been interpreted as indicative of lowered LGM precipitation, although alternative mechanisms and interpretation have been postulated by Baker et al. (2003). Conversely, LGM sediments from the Lago Grande basin of Lake Titicaca (Baker et al., 2001b) and fluvial sediments from its southerly outflow, the Río Desaguadero (Rigsby et al., 2005), suggest deep fresh water. These data imply that there must have been a positive moisture balance at this time to allow the overtopping of Lake Titicaca, i.e. wet conditions persisted. While controversy surrounds the interpretation of LGM records, little is known regarding longer-term fluctuations in moisture balance and its impact on the vegetation of the region. Radiocarbon and U–Th dating of palaeoshorelines in the Altiplano have suggested that six lake cycles occurred during the last glacial-interglacial cycle (Placzek et al., 2006a, Placzek et al., 2006b): the Ouki (120,000–98,000 cal yr BP), the Salinas (95,000–80,000 cal yr BP), the Inca Huasi (c. 46,000 cal yr BP), the Sajsi (c. 24,000–20,500 cal yr BP), the Tauca (18,100–14,100 cal yr BP) and the Coipasa (13,000–11,000 cal yr BP). Placzek et al. (2006b) suggest that the Ouki and the Tauca cycles created the deepest palaeolakes, reaching c. 80 m and c. 140 m, respectively. Cores recovered from the Salar de Uyuni (20°S, 68°W) provide the only published palaeoecological records from the southern hemisphere tropical Andes that cover the last glacial-interglacial cycle (Sylvestre et al., 1999, Baker et al., 2001a, Fritz et al., 2004, Chepstow-Lusty et al., 2005). However, the palynological record from Salar de Uyuni is not continuous because during arid phases the evaporitic deposits did not preserve micro-fossils. The intermittent presence of lake sediments beneath this modern salt pan indicates that the precipitation:evaporation (P:E) ratio was greater than today at various points during the last glacial-interglacial cycle (Baker et al., 2001a). Palynological data from the layers of lake sediment found beneath the Salar de Uyuni suggest that during these episodes of high P:E ratios the glacial landscape was dominated by grasses with elements of high Andean woodlands continually present (Chepstow-Lusty et al., 2005). In this paper, we present a more continuous palynological record from the last glacial-interglacial cycle (c. 151,000–14,200 cal yr BP) obtained from a 119 m sediment core from the Huiñaimarca sub-basin of Lake Titicaca. Data are used to assess moisture balance changes and their impact on the vegetation through this period. Comparison and correlation with other records from the Altiplano place these data within a regional context

Warming, drought, and disturbances lead to shifts in functional composition: A millennial-scale analysis for Amazonian and Andean sites

Tropical forests are changing in composition and productivity, probably in response to changes in climate and disturbances. The responses to these multiple environmental drivers, and the mechanisms underlying the changes, remain largely unknown. Here, we use a functional trait approach on timescales of 10,000¿years to assess how climate and disturbances influence the community-mean adult height, leaf area, seed mass, and wood density for eight lowland and highland forest landscapes. To do so, we combine data of eight fossil pollen records with functional traits and proxies for climate (temperature, precipitation, and El Niño frequency) and disturbances (fire and general disturbances). We found that temperature and disturbances were the most important drivers of changes in functional composition. Increased water availability (high precipitation and low El Niño frequency) generally led to more acquisitive trait composition (large leaves and soft wood). In lowland forests, warmer climates decreased community-mean height probably because of increased water stress, whereas in highland forests warmer climates increased height probably because of upslope migration of taller species. Disturbance increased the abundance of acquisitive, disturbance-adapted taxa with small seeds for quick colonization of disturbed sites, large leaves for light capture, and soft wood to attain fast height growth. Fire had weak effects on lowland forests but led to more stress-adapted taxa that are tall with fast life cycles and small seeds that can quickly colonize burned sites. Site-specific analyses were largely in line with cross-site analyses, except for varying site-level effects of El Niño frequency and fire activity, possibly because regional patterns in El Niño are not a good predictor of local changes, and charcoal abundances do not reflect fire intensity or severity. With future global changes, tropical Amazonian and Andean forests may transition toward shorter, drought- and disturbance-adapted forests in the lowlands but taller forests in the highlands.We thank various funding sources. M.T.v.d.S. was supported by the Rubicon research program with project number 019.171LW.023 and the Veni research program with project number NWO-VI.Veni.192.027, both funded by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO); M.T.v.d.S. and L.P. by the European Research Council Advanced Grant PANTROP 834775; M.B.B. by the National Science Foundation 621 (grant # EAR1338694, BCS0926973 and 1624207), the Belmont Forum, the National Aeronautics 622 and Space Administration (grant no. NNX14AD31G), and National Geographic Society (grant no. 8763-10); S.G.A.F. by Trond Mohn Stiftelse (TMS) and University of Bergen (Grant No. TMS2022STG03/Past, Present and Future of Alpine Biomes Worldwide); H.H. by the Netherlands Organization for Tropical Research (grant WB 84-636) to study Lake La Cocha; S.Y.M. and W.D.G. by the European Commission (Marie Curie Fellowship 792197); C.N.H.M. by the European Research Council Starting Grant StG 853394 (2019) and the NWO-ALWOP.322; E.M. by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) of UK (grant NE/J018562/1), and for radiocarbon dating by the NERC Radiocarbon Facility NRCF010001 (allocation number 1682.1112); M.d.N.N. by the National Science Foundation (NSF)—DEB 1260983, EAR 1338694 and 1624207. All work for Lake Kumpaka was conducted under Ecuadorian Collection Permit 08-620 2017-IC and for Lake Pindo under Permit 14-2012-IC-FLO-DPAP-MA

DNA metabarcoding reveals metacommunity dynamics in a threatened boreal wetland wilderness

Too often, ecological monitoring studies are designed without understanding whether they have sufficient statistical power to detect changes beyond natural variability. The Peace–Athabasca Delta is North America’s largest inland delta, within a World Heritage area, and is currently threatened by human development. Using multispecies occupancy models we show that the wetland macroinvertebrate community is highly diverse, and spatial and temporal turnover are so high that composition is nearly random, emphasizing stochastic processes of assembly. Using DNA metabarcoding, our study detected more taxa, both overall and per sample, than traditional morphology-based sample processing, increasing our power to detect ecosystem change. Improving data quality and quantifying error are key to delivering effective monitoring and understanding the dynamic structure of the metacommunity.The complexity and natural variability of ecosystems present a challenge for reliable detection of change due to anthropogenic influences. This issue is exacerbated by necessary trade-offs that reduce the quality and resolution of survey data for assessments at large scales. The Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) is a large inland wetland complex in northern Alberta, Canada. Despite its geographic isolation, the PAD is threatened by encroachment of oil sands mining in the Athabasca watershed and hydroelectric dams in the Peace watershed. Methods capable of reliably detecting changes in ecosystem health are needed to evaluate and manage risks. Between 2011 and 2016, aquatic macroinvertebrates were sampled across a gradient of wetland flood frequency, applying both microscope-based morphological identification and DNA metabarcoding. By using multispecies occupancy models, we demonstrate that DNA metabarcoding detected a much broader range of taxa and more taxa per sample compared to traditional morphological identification and was essential to identifying significant responses to flood and thermal regimes. We show that family-level occupancy masks high variation among genera and quantify the bias of barcoding primers on the probability of detection in a natural community. Interestingly, patterns of community assembly were nearly random, suggesting a strong role of stochasticity in the dynamics of the metacommunity. This variability seriously compromises effective monitoring at local scales but also reflects resilience to hydrological and thermal variability. Nevertheless, simulations showed the greater efficiency of metabarcoding, particularly at a finer taxonomic resolution, provided the statistical power needed to detect change at the landscape scale

Connecting Earth Observation to High-Throughput Biodiversity Data

There is much interest in using Earth Observation (EO) technology to track biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and ecosystem services, understandable given the fast pace of biodiversity loss. However, because most biodiversity is invisible to EO, EO-based indicators could be misleading, which can reduce the effectiveness of nature conservation and even unintentionally decrease conservation effort. We describe an approach that combines automated recording devices, high-throughput DNA sequencing, and modern ecological modelling to extract much more of the information available in EO data. This approach is achievable now, 62 offering efficient and near-real time monitoring of management impacts on biodiversity and its functions and services