Machine-learning-based calving prediction from activity, lying, and ruminating behaviors in dairy cattle

The objective of this study was to use automated activity, lying, and rumination monitors to characterize prepartum behavior and predict calving in dairy cattle. Data were collected from 20 primiparous and 33 multiparous Holstein dairy cattle from September 2011 to May 2013 at the University of Kentucky Coldstream Dairy. The HR Tag (SCR Engineers Ltd., Netanya, Israel) automatically collected neck activity and rumination data in 2-h increments. The IceQube (IceRobotics Ltd., South Queensferry, United Kingdom) automatically collected number of steps, lying time, standing time, number of transitions from standing to lying (ly-. ing bouts), and total motion, summed in 15-min increments. IceQube data were summed in 2-h increments to match HR Tag data. All behavioral data were collected for 14 d before the predicted calving date. Retrospective data analysis was performed using mixed linear models to examine behavioral changes by day in the 14 d before calving. Bihourly behavioral differences from baseline values over the 14 d before calving were also evaluated using mixed linear models. Changes in daily rumination time, total motion, lying time, and lying bouts occurred in the 14 d before calving. In the bihourly analysis, extreme values for all behaviors occurred in the final 24 h, indicating that the monitored behaviors may be useful in calving prediction. To determine whether technologies were useful at predicting calving, random forest, linear discriminant analysis, and neural network machine -learning techniques were constructed and implemented using R version 3.1.0 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). These methods were used on variables from each technology and all combined variables from both technologies. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies at the daily level yielded 100.0% sen-sitivity and 86.8% specificity. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies in bihourly increments was used to identify 2-h periods in the 8 h before calving with 82.8% sensitivity and 80.4% specificity. Changes in behavior and machine-learning alerts indicate that commercially marketed behavioral monitors may have calving prediction potential

The Role of Tourism and Recreation in the Spread of Non-Native Species: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Managing the pathways by which non-native species are introduced and spread is considered the most effective way of preventing species invasions. Tourism and outdoor recreation involve the frequent congregation of people, vehicles and vessels from geographically diverse areas. They are therefore perceived to be major pathways for the movement of non-native species, and ones that will become increasingly important with the continued growth of these sectors. However, a global assessment of the relationship between tourism activities and the introduction of non-native species–particularly in freshwater and marine environments–is lacking. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the impact of tourism and outdoor recreation on non-native species in terrestrial, marine and freshwater environments. Our results provide quantitative evidence that the abundance and richness of non-native species are significantly higher in sites where tourist activities take place than in control sites. The pattern was consistent across terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments; across a variety of vectors (e.g. horses, hikers, yachts); and across a range of taxonomic groups. These results highlight the need for widespread biosecurity interventions to prevent the inadvertent introduction of invasive non-native species (INNS) as the tourism and outdoor recreation sectors grow

Deferoxamine mesylate in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (i-DEF): a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind phase 2 trial

BackgroundIron from haemolysed blood is implicated in secondary injury after intracerebral haemorrhage. We aimed to assess the safety of the iron chelator deferoxamine mesylate in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage and to establish whether the drug merits investigation in a phase 3 trial.MethodsWe did a multicentre, futility-design, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 2 trial at 40 hospitals in Canada and the USA. Adults aged 18-80 years with primary, spontaneous, supratentorial intracerebral haemorrhage were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive deferoxamine mesylate (32 mg/kg per day) or placebo (saline) infusions for 3 consecutive days within 24 h of haemorrhage onset. Randomisation was done via a web-based trial-management system centrally in real time, and treatment allocation was concealed from both participants and investigators. The primary outcome was good clinical outcome, which was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2 at day 90. We did a futility analysis: if the 90% upper confidence bound of the absolute risk difference between the two groups in the proportion of participants with a good clinical outcome was less than 12% in favour of deferoxamine mesylate, then to move to a phase 3 efficacy trial would be futile. Primary outcome and safety data were analysed in the modified intention-to-treat population, comprising only participants in whom the study infusions were initiated. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02175225, and is completed.FindingsWe recruited 294 participants between Nov 23, 2014, and Nov 10, 2017. The modified intention-to-treat population consisted of 144 patients assigned to the deferoxamine mesylate group and 147 assigned to the placebo group. At day 90, among patients with available data for the primary outcome, 48 (34%) of 140 participants in the deferoxamine mesylate group, and 47 (33%) of 143 patients in the placebo group, had modified Rankin Scale scores of 0-2 (adjusted absolute risk difference 0·6% [90% upper confidence bound 6·8%]). By day 90, 70 serious adverse events were reported in 39 (27%) of 144 patients in the deferoxamine mesylate group, and 78 serious adverse events were reported in 49 (33%) of 147 patients in the placebo group. Ten (7%) participants in the deferoxamine mesylate and 11 (7%) in the placebo group died. None of the deaths were judged to be treatment related.InterpretationDeferoxamine mesylate was safe. However, the primary result showed that further study of the efficacy of deferoxamine mesylate with anticipation that the drug would significantly improve the chance of good clinical outcome (ie, mRS score of 0-2) at day 90 would be futile.FundingUS National Institutes of Health and US National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke