Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS

A simple model that simulates the spread of AIDS is used to generate estimates of deaths from AIDS, which are incorporated into population projections covering 20 years. Preliminary results for one country are shown - not firm estimates, as the model has several arbitrarily set parameters. The results suggest that the number of infectionsand deaths could be extremely large, even if transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is substantially reduced. In five years, deaths in a single country will be in the tens of thousands, and after 20 years could be hundreds of thousands and still rising. Nevertheless, the impact on population size appears small. The authors discuss why these results should not be entirely trusted, and what work remains to be done. Where HIV is relatively widespread, changes in sexual behavior, particulary increases in condom use, are essential to reduce the scale of the epidemic. Earlier changes are more effective than later changes. But across countries with different levels of prevalence and sexual activity, changes in sexual behavior produce similar effects.Health Indicators,,HIV AIDS,Adolescent Health,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Global estimates and projections of mortality by cause, 1970-2015

The authors report estimates and projections of deaths by cause for major world regions, based on data from country reports to the World Health Organization and regression models. They report mortality rates for seven major causes: infectious and parasitic diseases, neoplasms, circulatory system diseases, complications of pregnancy, certain perinatal conditions, injury and poisoning, and other causes. Some more specific causes are reported on. They give estimates for six age groups by sex for four years (1970, 1985, 2000, and 2015) and six country groups: industrial market economies, industrial nonmarket economies, Latin America and the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and Asia and the Pacific. Among their findings: The population over 45 in developing countries is projected to more than double between 1985 and 2015, rising from 17 to 24 percent of the population. Causes of death, which are closely related to age at death, must change accordingly. Infant mortality in developing countries is projected to fall from 78 per thousand in 1985 to 43 per thousand in 2015 and life expectancy at birth in developing countries is projected to rise by five years. The leading causes of death for the world as a whole for both 1970 and 1985 were infectious and parasitic diseases and circulatory system diseases - with the first more important in developing countries, and the second more important in developed countries. Certain perinatal conditions were also more important for developing countries, but accounted for only a fourth or a fifth as many deaths in 1985. Neoplasms were more important in developed than in developing countries. Deaths from infectious diseases are expected to decline as a percentage of deaths; proportionate deaths from diseases of the circulatory system are expected to rise. The greatest number of deaths will continue to be in Asia, where almost half of all deaths in the world take place. This proportion is not projected to change. Better data on causes of death are essential. The World Health Organization is working with countries to strengthen their cause-of-death information systems as an essential support for health monitoring.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Indicators,Early Child and Children's Health,Adolescent Health,Demographics

Africa region population projections - 1988-89

The report which is part of a series, presents population projection tables for each country in the Africa region. The report provides an explanation on projection results as well as a description of the projection methodology, summarizing the main results. The projections in the report cover the period 1985 - 2150. This time period allows countries to approach stability. The key elements in these projections are the base year (mid 1985). Total population estimates and age - sex structures are for the base period (1985 - 90). Mortality, fertility and migration rates are included in the statistics.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Earth Sciences&GIS

Asia region population projections : 1988-89 edition

Population projections are provided here for the individual countries comprising the Asia region. The projections cover the period 1985-2150. The length of the projection period was chosen to allow countries to approach stability, which for several is expected to take as long as two centuries. The paper begins with an introduction which explains what projection results are provided in the detailed tables, describes the projection methodology, and summarizes and interprets the main results.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Europe, Middle East, and North Africa region population projections : 1988-89 edition

Population projections are provided in this paper for the individual countries comprising EMENA region. The projections cover the period 1985-2150. The length of the projection period was chosen to allow countries to approach stability, which for several is projected to take as long as two centuries. The paper begins with an introduction which explains what projection results are provided in the detailed tables, describes the projection methodology, and summarizes and interprets the main results.Demographics,Health Indicators,,Health Information&Communications Technologies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Latin America and the Caribbean region population projections 1988-89

The report which is part of a series, presents population projection tables for each country in the Latin America andCaribbean region. The report provides an explanation on projection results as well as a description of the projection methodology, summarizing the main results. The projections in the report cover the period 1985 - 2150. This time period allows countries to approach stability. The key elements in these projections are the base year (mid - 1985). Total population estimates and age - sex structures are for the base period (1985 - 90 ). Mortality, fertility and migration rates are included in the statistics.Demographics,Health Indicators,,Health Information&Communications Technologies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Latin America and the Caribbean region population projections : 1990-91

This paper provides population projections for each country, economy, or territory in one World Bank region, as well as for nonborrower countries in the same geographic area. The Latin American and the Caribbean region is demographically at an intermediate stage. Fertility has declined to between 3 and 4 children per woman in all subregions as contraceptive use has continued to broaden. Life expectancy has risen to between 65 and 69, or about 10 years below countries with the most favorable mortality conditions. Some countries in the region have advanced to replacement level fertility; a few others are just starting the fertility transition. The projections show all countries in the region completing the transition by 2030 - the earliest of all regions. In this 1990-91 edition, projects are provided in a new format to permit the inclusion of data on recent demographic trends. Projection methods have changed only marginally since the previous edition. Essentially, recent country-specific data about levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are applied to available age-sex distributions in order to obtain short-run projections. Long-run projections, up to 2150, are also made under the assumptions that fertility and mortality eventually become stable and net international migration declines to zero.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Country Population Profiles

Africa region population projections : 1990-91

As recently as the mid-1970s, the Africa region had a smaller population than the Asia, the Latin American and the Caribbean, or the Europe, Middle East, and North Africa regions. Explosive population growth of more than 3 percent per year, projected to decline only gradually, will make Africa the second largest region by 2005. Its share of the world's population will increase from less than 10 percent now to 20 percent in the middle of the next century and to 25 percent when stationarity is finally reached. Vital rates vary relatively little among the subregions of sub-Saharan Africa. Fertility is uniformly high, with the total fertility rate higher than 6 children per woman. Linked with high fertility are high infant mortality rates, which are above 100 per thousand births for subregions. A few countries - Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya - are leading the way in the African fertility transition. Recent fertility surveys in these countries show an increase in the use of contraceptives and the first evidence of fertility decline. It is assumed in the projections that this trend will spread to other countries. Most African governments now report their country's population growth rates as too high.Demographics,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Earth Sciences&GIS

Europe, Middle East, and North Africa (EMN) region population projections : 1989-90 edition

The population of the region is growing at 2.4 percent a year, second only to the Africa region, and should double in size in about 30 years. Regional growth would appear even more rapid were growth not offset by slow and even negative growth in the Eastern and Southern European countries included in the region. The projections of fertility and mortality are modeled on recent trends worldwide,and therefore incorporate the effects of deliberate efforts to reduce vital rates in various countries. Although altering projected trends is possible, it would require at least as much demographic interventions as in the recent past. The projections in the report cover almost two centuries, from 1985 to 2150. The length of the projection period was chosen to allow populations to approach stability, which for several takes essentially the entire period. The report begins with an introduction which explains what projection results are provided in the detailed tables, describes the projection methodology, and summarizes and interprets the main results.Demographics,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,

Asia region population projections : 1989-90 edition

Of the 90 million people added to world population this year, half live in the Asia region. Asia's contribution to world population growth is proportional to its size and dwarfs the contribution of every other region. The scale of this contribution may be illustrated by the fact that India is adding to its population every year as many people as live in Australia. This paper studies population projections, covering almost two centuries from 1985 to 2150. The length of the projection period was chosen to allow populations to approach stability, which for several takes essentially the entire period. The paper begins with an introduction which explains what projection results are provided in the detailed tables, describes the projection methodology, and summarizes and interprets the main results.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Indicators,Health Information&Communications Technologies,,Demographics