Integrating Community-Based Interventions to Reverse the Convergent TB/HIV Epidemics in Rural South Africa.

The WHO recommends integrating interventions to address the devastating TB/HIV co-epidemics in South Africa, yet integration has been poorly implemented and TB/HIV control efforts need strengthening. Identifying infected individuals is particularly difficult in rural settings. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of community-based, integrated TB/HIV case finding and additional control strategies on South Africa's TB/HIV epidemics. We developed a model incorporating TB and HIV transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of integrating TB and HIV interventions in rural South Africa over 10 years. We modeled the impact of a novel screening program that integrates case finding for TB and HIV in the community, comparing it to status quo and recommended TB/HIV control strategies, including GeneXpert, MDR-TB treatment decentralization, improved first-line TB treatment cure rate, isoniazid preventive therapy, and expanded ART. Combining recommended interventions averted 27% of expected TB cases (95% CI 18-40%) 18% HIV (95% CI 13-24%), 60% MDR-TB (95% CI 34-83%), 69% XDR-TB (95% CI 34-90%), and 16% TB/HIV deaths (95% CI 12-29). Supplementing these interventions with annual community-based TB/HIV case finding averted a further 17% of TB cases (44% total; 95% CI 31-56%), 5% HIV (23% total; 95% CI 17-29%), 8% MDR-TB (68% total; 95% CI 40-88%), 4% XDR-TB (73% total; 95% CI 38-91%), and 8% TB/HIV deaths (24% total; 95% CI 16-39%). In addition to increasing screening frequency, we found that improving TB symptom questionnaire sensitivity, second-line TB treatment delays, default before initiating TB treatment or ART, and second-line TB drug efficacy were significantly associated with even greater reductions in TB and HIV cases. TB/HIV epidemics in South Africa were most effectively curtailed by simultaneously implementing interventions that integrated community-based TB/HIV control strategies and targeted drug-resistant TB. Strengthening existing TB and HIV treatment programs is needed to further reduce disease incidence

Snake prices and crocodile appetites: Aquatic wildlife supply and demand on Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

Commercial trade is a major driver of over-exploitation of wild species, but the pattern of demand and how it responds to changes in supply is poorly understood. Here we explore the markets for snakes from Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia to evaluate future exploitation scenarios, identify entry points for conservation and, more generally, to illustrate the value of multi-scale analysis of markets to traded wildlife conservation. In Cambodia, the largest driver of snake exploitation is the domestic trade in snakes as crocodile food. We estimate that farmed crocodiles consume between 2.7 and 12.2 million snakes per year. The market price for crocodiles has been in decline since 2003, which, combined with rising prices for their food, has led to a reduced frequency of feeding and closure of small farms. The large farms that generate a disproportionate amount of the demand for snakes continue to operate in anticipation of future market opportunities, and preferences for snakes could help maintain demand if market prices for crocodiles rise to pre 2003 levels. In the absence of a sustained demand from crocodile farms, it is also possible that alternative markets will develop, such as one for human snack food. The demand for snakes, however, also depends on the availability of substitute resources, principally fish. The substitutability and low price elasticity of demand offers a relatively sustainable form of consumerism. Given the nature of these market drivers, addressing consumer preferences and limiting the protection of snakes to their breeding season are likely to be the most effective tools for conservation. This study highlights the importance of understanding the structure of markets and the behaviour of consumer demand prior to implementing regulations on wildlife hunting and trade

Applicability of Drug Response Metrics for Cancer Studies using Biomaterials

Bioengineers have built models of the tumour microenvironment (TME) in which to study cell–cell interactions, mechanisms of cancer growth and metastasis, and to test new therapies. These models allow researchers to culture cells in conditions that include features of the in vivo TME implicated in regulating cancer progression, such as extracellular matrix (ECM) stiffness, integrin binding to the ECM, immune and stromal cells, growth factor and cytokine depots, and a three-dimensional geometry more representative of the in vivo TME than tissue culture polystyrene (TCPS). These biomaterials could be particularly useful for drug screening applications to make better predictions of efficacy, offering better translation to preclinical models and clinical trials. However, it can be challenging to compare drug response reports across different biomaterial platforms in the current literature. This is, in part, a result of inconsistent reporting and improper use of drug response metrics, and vast differences in cell growth rates across a large variety of biomaterial designs. This study attempts to clarify the definitions of drug response measurements used in the field, and presents examples in which these measurements can and cannot be applied. We suggest as best practice to measure the growth rate of cells in the absence of drug, and follow our ‘decision tree’ when reporting drug response metrics

Characterizing the Bladderʼs Response to Onabotulinum Toxin Type A Using a Rat Model

To characterize the response of the rat bladder neuromuscular system to intramural injection of onabotulinum toxin type A (BoNT/A) over 9 weeks using in vivo cystometry (CMG) and in vitro contractility (IVC)

How do Zimbabweans value health states?

Background Quality of life weights based on valuations of health states are often used in cost utility analysis and population health measures. This paper reports on an attempt to develop quality of life weights within the Zimbabwe context. Methods 2,384 residents in randomly selected small residential plots of land in a high-density suburb of Harare valued descriptors of 38 health states based on different combinations of the five domains of the EQ-5D (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain or discomfort and anxiety or depression). The English version of the EQ-5D was used. The time trade-off method was used to determine the values, and 19,020 individual preferences for health states were analysed. A residual maximum likelihood linear mixed model was used to estimate a function for predicting the values of all possible combinations of levels on the five domains. The model was fit to a random subset of two-thirds of the observations, with the remaining observations reserved for analysis of predictive validity. The results were compared to a similar study undertaken in the United Kingdom. Results A credible model was developed to predict the values of states that were not valued directly. In the subset of observations reserved for validation, the mean absolute difference between predicted and observed values was 0.045. All domains of the EQ-5D were found to contribute significantly to the model, both at the moderate and severe levels. Severe pain was found to have the largest negative coefficient, followed by the inability to wash and dress oneself. Conclusion Despite a generally lower education level than their European counterparts, urban Zimbabweans appear to value health states in a consistent manner, and the determination of a global method of establishing quality of life weights may be feasible and valid. However, as the relative weightings of the different domains, although correlated, differed from the standard set of weights recommended by the EuroQol Group, the locally determined coefficients should be used within the Zimbabwean context

A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process model with the individual reproduction number following a Poisson lognormal distribution. We estimate that, on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0.41 (95% CrI 0.30,0.60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0.24 (0.14,0.48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 39% (26%,60%) of UK cases and 23%(13%,37%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in the NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. In conclusion, while TB in low incidence countries is strongly associated with reactivated infections, we demonstrate that recent transmission remains sufficient to warrant policies aimed at limiting local TB spread

Snake prices and crocodile appetites: Aquatic wildlife supply and demand on Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

a b s t r a c t Commercial trade is a major driver of over-exploitation of wild species, but the pattern of demand and how it responds to changes in supply is poorly understood. Here we explore the markets for snakes from Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia to evaluate future exploitation scenarios, identify entry points for conservation and, more generally, to illustrate the value of multi-scale analysis of markets to traded wildlife conservation. In Cambodia, the largest driver of snake exploitation is the domestic trade in snakes as crocodile food. We estimate that farmed crocodiles consume between 2.7 and 12.2 million snakes per year. The market price for crocodiles has been in decline since 2003, which, combined with rising prices for their food, has led to a reduced frequency of feeding and closure of small farms. The large farms that generate a disproportionate amount of the demand for snakes continue to operate in anticipation of future market opportunities, and preferences for snakes could help maintain demand if market prices for crocodiles rise to pre 2003 levels. In the absence of a sustained demand from crocodile farms, it is also possible that alternative markets will develop, such as one for human snack food. The demand for snakes, however, also depends on the availability of substitute resources, principally fish. The substitutability and low price elasticity of demand offers a relatively sustainable form of consumerism. Given the nature of these market drivers, addressing consumer preferences and limiting the protection of snakes to their breeding season are likely to be the most effective tools for conservation. This study highlights the importance of understanding the structure of markets and the behaviour of consumer demand prior to implementing regulations on wildlife hunting and trade

Species-level classification of the vaginal microbiome

Background The application of next-generation sequencing to the study of the vaginal microbiome is revealing the spectrum of microbial communities that inhabit the human vagina. High-resolution identification of bacterial taxa, minimally to the species level, is necessary to fully understand the association of the vaginal microbiome with bacterial vaginosis, sexually transmitted infections, pregnancy complications, menopause, and other physiological and infectious conditions. However, most current taxonomic assignment strategies based on metagenomic 16S rDNA sequence analysis provide at best a genus-level resolution. While surveys of 16S rRNA gene sequences are common in microbiome studies, few well-curated, body-site-specific reference databases of 16S rRNA gene sequences are available, and no such resource is available for vaginal microbiome studies. Results We constructed the Vaginal 16S rDNA Reference Database, a comprehensive and non-redundant database of 16S rDNA reference sequences for bacterial taxa likely to be associated with vaginal health, and we developed STIRRUPS, a new method that employs the USEARCH algorithm with a curated reference database for rapid species-level classification of 16S rDNA partial sequences. The method was applied to two datasets of V1-V3 16S rDNA reads: one generated from a mock community containing DNA from six bacterial strains associated with vaginal health, and a second generated from over 1,000 mid-vaginal samples collected as part of the Vaginal Human Microbiome Project at Virginia Commonwealth University. In both datasets, STIRRUPS, used in conjunction with the Vaginal 16S rDNA Reference Database, classified more than 95% of processed reads to a species-level taxon using a 97% global identity threshold for assignment. Conclusions This database and method provide accurate species-level classifications of metagenomic 16S rDNA sequence reads that will be useful for analysis and comparison of microbiome profiles from vaginal samples. STIRRUPS can be used to classify 16S rDNA sequence reads from other ecological niches if an appropriate reference database of 16S rDNA sequences is available