The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts

Social exclusion and the value of mobility

This paper investigates factors likely to increase a person’s risk of social exclusion, drawing on survey data specifically framed for this purpose. We use a generalised ordered logit model that accounts for observed and unobserved heterogeneity and derive the marginal effects for each influencing attribute. We find that people are less likely to be at risk of social exclusion if they have regular contact with significant others, have a sense of community, are not poor, are mobile and are open to new experiences which enable them to grow on a personal level. The value of an additional trip is estimated at $A20

Shared decision-making during childbirth in maternity units: the VIP mixed-methods study

Background NHS policy emphasises shared decision-making during labour and birth. There is, however, limited evidence concerning how decision-making happens in real time. Objectives Our objectives were as follows – create a data set of video- and audio-recordings of labour and birth in midwife-led units; use conversation analysis to explore how talk is used in shared decision-making; assess whether or not women’s antenatal expectations are reflected in experiences and whether or not the interactional strategies used (particularly the extent to which decisions are shared) are associated with women’s postnatal satisfaction; and disseminate findings to health-care practitioners and service users to inform policy on communication in clinical practice. Design This was a mixed-methods study. The principal method was conversation analysis to explore the fine detail of interaction during decision-making. Derived from the conversation analysis, a coding frame was developed to quantify interactions, which were explored alongside questionnaire data concerning women’s antenatal expectations and preferences, and women’s experiences of, and postnatal satisfaction with, decision-making. Semistructured interviews with health-care practitioners explored factors shaping decision-making. Setting and participants The study took place in midwife-led units at two English NHS trusts. A total of 154 women (aged ≥ 16 years with low-risk pregnancies), 158 birth partners and 121 health-care practitioners consented to be recorded. Of these participants, 37 women, 43 birth partners and 74 health-care practitioners were recorded. Key findings Midwives initiate the majority of decisions in formats that do not invite women’s participation (i.e. beyond consenting). The extent of optionality that midwives provide varies with the decision. Women have most involvement in decisions pertaining to pain relief and the third stage of labour. High levels of satisfaction are reported. There is no statistically significant relationship between midwives’ use of different formats of decision-making and any measures of satisfaction. However, women’s initiation of decisions, particularly relating to pain relief (e.g. making lots of requests), is associated with lower satisfaction. Limitations Our data set is explored with a focus on decision initiation and responses, leaving other important aspects of care (e.g. midwives’ and birth partners’ interactional techniques to facilitate working with pain) underexplored, which might be implicated in decision-making. Despite efforts to recruit a diverse sample, ethnic minority women are under-represented. Conclusions Policy initiatives emphasising patient involvement in decision-making are challenging to enact in practice. Our findings illustrate that women are afforded limited optionality in decision-making, and that midwives orient to guidelines/standard clinical practice in pursuing particular decisional outcomes. Nonetheless, the majority of women were satisfied with their experiences. However, when women needed to pursue decisions, particularly concerning pain relief, satisfaction is lower. Conversation analysis demonstrates that such ‘women-initiated’ decision-making occurs in the context of midwives’ avoiding pharmacological methods of pain relief at particular stages of labour. Future research We suggest that future research address the following – the barriers to inclusion of ethnic minority research participants, decision-making in obstetric units, systematic understanding of how pain relief decisions are pursued/resolved, conversation analysis of interactional elements beyond the specific decision-making context, interactional ‘markers’ of the emotional labour and inclusion of antenatal encounters

Measuring changes in self-concept: a qualitative evaluation of outcome questionnaires in people having acupuncture for their chronic health problems

BACKGROUND: Changes in self-concept are an important potential outcome for many interventions for people with long-term conditions. This study sought to identify and evaluate outcome questionnaires suitable for quantifying changes in self-concept in people with long-term conditions, in the context of treatment with acupuncture and Chinese medicine. METHODS: A literature search was followed by an evaluation of three questionnaires: The Wellbeing Questionnaire W-BQ12, the Patient Enablement Instrument (PEI), and the Arizona Integrative Outcome Scale (AIOS). A convenience sample of 23 people completed the questionnaires on two occasions and were interviewed about their experience and their questionnaire responses. All acupuncturists were interviewed. RESULTS: Changes in self-concept were common and emerged over time. The three questionnaires had different strengths and weaknesses in relation to measuring changes in self-concept. The generic AIOS had face validity and was sensitive to changes in self-concept over time, but it lacked specificity. The PEI was sensitive and specific in measuring these changes but had lower acceptability. The sensitivity of the W-BQ12 was affected by initial high scores (ceiling effect) and a shorter timescale but was acceptable and is suitable for repeated administration. The PEI and W-BQ12 questionnaires worked well in combination. CONCLUSION: Changes in self-concept are important outcomes of complex interventions for people with long-term illness and their measurement requires carefully evaluated tools and long-term follow-up. The literature review and the analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the questionnaires is a resource for other researchers. The W-BQ12 and the PEI both proved useful for this population and a larger quantitative study is planned

The Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder: Performance of the Boolardy Engineering Test Array

We describe the performance of the Boolardy Engineering Test Array, the prototype for the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder telescope. Boolardy Engineering Test Array is the first aperture synthesis radio telescope to use phased array feed technology, giving it the ability to electronically form up to nine dual-polarisation beams. We report the methods developed for forming and measuring the beams, and the adaptations that have been made to the traditional calibration and imaging procedures in order to allow BETA to function as a multi-beam aperture synthesis telescope. We describe the commissioning of the instrument and present details of Boolardy Engineering Test Array’s performance: sensitivity, beam characteristics, polarimetric properties, and image quality. We summarise the astronomical science that it has produced and draw lessons from operating Boolardy Engineering Test Array that will be relevant to the commissioning and operation of the final Australian Square Kilometre Array Path telescope

Discovery of HI gas in a young radio galaxy at z = 0.44 using the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder

We report the discovery of a new 21-cm H i absorption system using commissioning data from the Boolardy Engineering Test Array of the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP). Using the 711.5–1015.5 MHz band of ASKAP we were able to conduct a blind search for the 21-cm line in a continuous redshift range between z = 0.4 and 1.0, which has, until now, remained largely unexplored. The absorption line is detected at z = 0.44 towards the GHz-peaked spectrum radio source PKS B1740−517 and demonstrates ASKAP's excellent capability for performing a future wide-field survey for H i absorption at these redshifts. Optical spectroscopy and imaging using the Gemini-South telescope indicates that the H i gas is intrinsic to the host galaxy of the radio source. The narrow [O iii] emission lines show clear double-peaked structure, indicating either large-scale outflow or rotation of the ionized gas. Archival data from the XMM–Newton satellite exhibit an absorbed X-ray spectrum that is consistent with a high column density obscuring medium around the active galactic nucleus. The H i absorption profile is complex, with four distinct components ranging in width from 5 to 300 km s−1 and fractional depths from 0.2 to 20 per cent. In addition to systemic H i gas, in a circumnuclear disc or ring structure aligned with the radio jet, we find evidence for a possible broad outflow of neutral gas moving at a radial velocity of v ~ 300 km s−1. We infer that the expanding young radio source (tage ≈ 2500 yr) is cocooned within a dense medium and may be driving circumnuclear neutral gas in an outflow of ~1 M⊙ yr−1