Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Risk Management Among Georgia Farmers

Recent increases in the scientific robustness of seasonal climate forecasts have not led to substantial changes in farmers’ risk management strategies of actors, largely because there is poor integration of scientific forecasting into farmers’ decision-making processes. The goal of the research presented here is to explore the potentials and constraints for farmers’ application of seasonal climate forecasts through an analysis of the cultural contexts of their decision-making and information use. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 farmers in southern Georgia, examining their approaches, risk-management, to livelihood goals and strategies, and interactions with weather and climate information. Findings indicate that farmers’ management of risks associated with climate variability is embedded within a broad array of social factors, including subjective construction of social and personal identities, goals, and values. These cultural contexts affect the ways that farmers interpret and might apply seasonal climate forecasts to agricultural decisions. These findings indicate that, rather than simply acting as a technical information input, seasonal climate forecasts and forecasters must gradually work theirway into farmers’ trusted social networks before their potential as risk management tools will be realized. Furthermore, while seeking to produce scientific information to support farmers’ adaptive practices, scientists themselves must adapt their own practices to better fit a coproduction of knowledge approach

Shuttle orbiter Ku-band radar/communications system design evaluation

Tasks performed in an examination and critique of a Ku-band radar communications system for the shuttle orbiter are reported. Topics cover: (1) Ku-band high gain antenna/widebeam horn design evaluation; (2) evaluation of the Ku-band SPA and EA-1 LRU software; (3) system test evaluation; (4) critical design review and development test evaluation; (5) Ku-band bent pipe channel performance evaluation; (6) Ku-band LRU interchangeability analysis; and (7) deliverable test equipment evaluation. Where discrepancies were found, modifications and improvements to the Ku-band system and the associated test procedures are suggested

Asymmetries in the Value of Existence

According to asymmetric comparativism, it is worse for a person to exist with a miserable life than not to exist, but it is not better for a person to exist with a happy life than not to exist. My aim in this paper is to explain how asymmetric comparativism could possibly be true. My account of asymmetric comparativism begins with a different asymmetry, regarding the (dis)value of early death. I offer an account of this early death asymmetry, appealing to the idea of conditional goods, and generalize it to explain how asymmetric comparativism could possibly be true. I also address the objection that asymmetric comparativism has unacceptably antinatalist implications

Early discharge hospital at home

Background: Early discharge hospital at home is a service that provides active treatment by healthcare professionals in the patient's home for a condition that otherwise would require acute hospital inpatient care. This is an update of a Cochrane review. Objectives To determine the effectiveness and cost of managing patients with early discharge hospital at home compared with inpatient hospital care. Search methods We searched the following databases to 9 January 2017: the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group (EPOC) register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and EconLit. We searched clinical trials registries. Selection criteria Randomised trials comparing early discharge hospital at home with acute hospital inpatient care for adults. We excluded obstetric, paediatric and mental health hospital at home schemes. Data collection and analysis We followed the standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and EPOC. We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the body of evidence for the most important outcomes. Main results: We included 32 trials (N = 4746), six of them new for this update, mainly conducted in high-income countries. We judged most of the studies to have a low or unclear risk of bias. The intervention was delivered by hospital outreach services (17 trials), community-based services (11 trials), and was co-ordinated by a hospital-based stroke team or physician in conjunction with community-based services in four trials. Studies recruiting people recovering from stroke: Early discharge hospital at home probably makes little or no difference to mortality at three to six months (risk ratio (RR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.57 to 1.48, N = 1114, 11 trials, moderate-certainty evidence) and may make little or no difference to the risk of hospital readmission (RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.66, N = 345, 5 trials, low-certainty evidence). Hospital at home may lower the risk of living in institutional setting at six months (RR 0.63, 96% CI 0.40 to 0.98; N = 574, 4 trials, low-certainty evidence) and might slightly improve patient satisfaction (N = 795, low-certainty evidence). Hospital at home probably reduces hospital length of stay, as moderate-certainty evidence found that people assigned to hospital at home are discharged from the intervention about seven days earlier than people receiving inpatient care (95% CI 10.19 to 3.17 days earlier, N = 528, 4 trials). It is uncertain whether hospital at home has an effect on cost (very low-certainty evidence). Studies recruiting people with a mix of medical conditions: Early discharge hospital at home probably makes little or no difference to mortality (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.49; N = 1247, 8 trials, moderate-certainty evidence). In people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) there was insufficient information to determine the effect of these two approaches on mortality (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.25 to 1.12, N = 496, 5 trials, low-certainty evidence). The intervention probably increases the risk of hospital readmission in a mix of medical conditions, although the results are also compatible with no difference and a relatively large increase in the risk of readmission (RR 1.25, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.58, N = 1276, 9 trials, moderate-certainty evidence). Early discharge hospital at home may decrease the risk of readmission for people with COPD (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.13, N = 496, 5 trials low-certainty evidence). Hospital at home may lower the risk of living in an institutional setting (RR 0.69, 0.48 to 0.99; N = 484, 3 trials, low-certainty evidence). The intervention might slightly improve patient satisfaction (N = 900, low-certainty evidence). The effect of early discharge hospital at home on hospital length of stay for older patients with a mix of conditions ranged from a reduction of 20 days to a reduction of less than half a day (moderate-certainty evidence, N = 767). It is uncertain whether hospital at home has an effect on cost (very low-certainty evidence). Studies recruiting people undergoing elective surgery: Three studies did not report higher rates of mortality with hospital at home compared with inpatient care (data not pooled, N = 856, low-certainty evidence; mainly orthopaedic surgery). Hospital at home may lead to little or no difference in readmission to hospital for people who were mainly recovering from orthopaedic surgery (N = 1229, low-certainty evidence). We could not establish the effects of hospital at home on the risk of living in institutional care, due to a lack of data. The intervention might slightly improve patient satisfaction (N = 1229, low-certainty evidence). People recovering from orthopaedic surgery allocated to early discharge hospital at home were discharged from the intervention on average four days earlier than people allocated to usual inpatient care (4.44 days earlier, 95% CI 6.37 to 2.51 days earlier, , N = 411, 4 trials, moderate-certainty evidence). It is uncertain whether hospital at home has an effect on cost (very low-certainty evidence). Authors' conclusions: Despite increasing interest in the potential of early discharge hospital at home services as a less expensive alternative to inpatient care, this review provides insufficient evidence of economic benefit (through a reduction in hospital length of stay) or improved health outcomes

Agent-based Social Psychology: from Neurocognitive Processes to Social Data

Moral Foundation Theory states that groups of different observers may rely on partially dissimilar sets of moral foundations, thereby reaching different moral valuations. The use of functional imaging techniques has revealed a spectrum of cognitive styles with respect to the differential handling of novel or corroborating information that is correlated to political affiliation. Here we characterize the collective behavior of an agent-based model whose inter individual interactions due to information exchange in the form of opinions are in qualitative agreement with experimental neuroscience data. The main conclusion derived connects the existence of diversity in the cognitive strategies and statistics of the sets of moral foundations and suggests that this connection arises from interactions between agents. Thus a simple interacting agent model, whose interactions are in accord with empirical data on conformity and learning processes, presents statistical signatures consistent with moral judgment patterns of conservatives and liberals as obtained by survey studies of social psychology.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, 2 C codes, to appear in Advances in Complex System

Bitopic binding mode of an M1 muscarinic acetylcholine receptor agonist associated with adverse clinical trial outcomes

The realisation of the therapeutic potential of targeting the M1 muscarinic acetylcholine receptor (M1 mAChR) for the treatment of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease has prompted the discovery of M1 mAChR ligands showing efficacy in alleviating cognitive dysfunction in both rodents and humans. Among these is GSK1034702, described previously as a potent M1 receptor allosteric agonist, which showed pro-cognitive effects in rodents and improved immediate memory in a clinical nicotine withdrawal test but induced significant side-effects. Here we provide evidence using ligand binding, chemical biology and functional assays to establish that rather than the allosteric mechanism claimed, GSK1034702 interacts in a bitopic manner at the M1 mAChR such that it can concomitantly span both the orthosteric and an allosteric binding site. The bitopic nature of GSK1034702 together with the intrinsic agonist activity and a lack of muscarinic receptor subtype selectivity reported here, all likely contribute to the adverse effects of this molecule in clinical trials. We conclude that these properties, whilst imparting beneficial effects on learning and memory, are undesirable in a clinical candidate due to the likelihood of adverse side effects. Rather, our data supports the notion that "pure" positive allosteric modulators showing selectivity for the M1 mAChR with low levels of intrinsic activity would be preferable to provide clinical efficacy with low adverse responses

Biological Records Centre Annual Report 2005-2006

The period covered by this report is the first year of a new six-year partnership between CEH and JNCC. For this period, there is increased emphasis on targeted survey, on analysis and interpretation and on communications and outreach. These activities were always part of BRC’s work, but they have been given greater prominence as a result of rapid developments in information technology. Data are increasingly reaching BRC in electronic form, so that the effort of data entry and collation is reduced. The data, collected by many volunteers and then collated and analysed at BRC, document the changing status and distribution of plants and animals in Britain. Distribution maps are published in atlases and are available via the internet through the NBN Gateway. The effects of change or loss of habitats, the influence of climate change and the consequences of changing water quality are all examples of the environmental factors that affect our biodiversity and which BRC aims to document and understand. The results are vital for developing environmental policies, to support conservation, and for fundamental ecological research. BRC is funded jointly by JNCC and NERC through a partnership based on a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA). The partnership started in 1973 when the Nature Conservancy was divided to form the successor bodies Nature Conservancy Council (NCC) and Institute of Terrestrial Ecology (ITE). NCC was in turn divided further to form JNCC and three Country Agencies, while ITE was merged with other NERC units to form CEH. Through all these changes, the partnership has been maintained. A six-year memorandum of agreement ended on 31 January 2005 (Hill et al. 2005). The present report covers the first full year, 2005-6, of the new agreement for 2005-2010. Rapid progress in information technology continues to be highly beneficial for BRC, whose data are increasingly used by the UK country conservation agencies, environmental consultants, NGOs, research workers, policy makers and volunteers. It is gratifying to know that, through our ability to display data on the National Biodiversity Network (NBN) Gateway, some of our data suppliers now have immediate access to their own data in a convenient form. The year 2005-6 has been one of steady progress, with new datasets added to BRC, substantial additions to existing data, and improved communication with the NBN Gateway. The most high profile activity of the year has been the Harlequin Ladybird Survey, which has enabled us to observe the early stages of colonization by a mobile insect in greater detail than has been possible in any previous case

The Notion of a General Will

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Retrotransposition of gene transcripts leads to structural variation in mammalian genomes

BACKGROUND: Retroposed processed gene transcripts are an important source of material for new gene formation on evolutionary timescales. Most prior work on gene retrocopy discovery compared copies in reference genome assemblies to their source genes. Here, we explore gene retrocopy insertion polymorphisms (GRIPs) that are present in the germlines of individual humans, mice, and chimpanzees, and we identify novel gene retrocopy insertions in cancerous somatic tissues that are absent from patient-matched non-cancer genomes. RESULTS: Through analysis of whole-genome sequence data, we found evidence for 48 GRIPs in the genomes of one or more humans sequenced as part of the 1,000 Genomes Project and The Cancer Genome Atlas, but which were not in the human reference assembly. Similarly, we found evidence for 755 GRIPs at distinct locations in one or more of 17 inbred mouse strains but which were not in the mouse reference assembly, and 19 GRIPs across a cohort of 10 chimpanzee genomes, which were not in the chimpanzee reference genome assembly. Many of these insertions are new members of existing gene families whose source genes are highly and widely expressed, and the majority have detectable hallmarks of processed gene retrocopy formation. We estimate the rate of novel gene retrocopy insertions in humans and chimps at roughly one new gene retrocopy insertion for every 6,000 individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We find that gene retrocopy polymorphisms are a widespread phenomenon, present a multi-species analysis of these events, and provide a method for their ascertainment