Optimistic bias in relation to hurricane risk

Department Head: Greg Luft.2010 Summer.Includes bibliographical references (pages 97-101).Public officials in the natural disaster field benefit from knowing whether individuals tend to underestimate or overestimate the dangers they could face from future hurricanes. Correcting hurricane risk misperceptions can encourage individuals living in coastal regions to take action and prepare themselves for the next hurricane season. One of the first steps in this process is to understand social perceptions of risk. In order to so, this quantitative study explored optimistic bias in relation to hurricane risk. Optimistic bias is defined as the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about life events (Weinstein, 1980). Weinstein explains this belief through the idea that individuals expect others to suffer hardship, but not themselves. After conducting a secondary analysis on 824 surveys collected from Gulf Coast residents, results show implications on the effects that dispositional optimism, age and tenure have on optimistic bias pertaining to hurricane risk. This data provides important information for future research and has implications for hurricane risk education

Neighborhood Level Socioeconomic Status And Rurality And Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia Coli Incidence: Connecticut, 2000-2011

Background: Shiga toxin Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 and other STEC strains are a well-known cause of enteric illness. National estimates are that STEC O157 causes approximately 96,534 illnesses every year in the United States, with another 168,698 illnesses caused by non-O157 STEC serotypes. Determining economic and sociodemographic factors associated with enteric disease incidence may provide new understandings of the transmission of these illnesses, particularly community transmission, and may prove useful in the prevention of disease. Methods: A total of 764 incident STEC cases were reported in CT from 2000 to 2011. Incident cases were geocoded based on the case\u27s address using ArcGIS. Incident cases were linked to neighborhood poverty level and neighborhood rurality level at the census tract level. Neighborhood poverty level was broken down into four categories for analysis: 0 - 4.99%, 5 - 9.99%, 10 - 19.99%, and greater than 20% of the population in the census tract living below the federal poverty line. Neighborhood rurality level was broken down into quartiles for analysis as well: 0 - 24.9%, 25 - 49.9%, 50 - 74.9%, and greater than 75% of housing units in the census tract considered rural. Twelve-year age-adjusted Shiga toxin E. coli incidence rates were calculated for each poverty category and each rurality category. Incidence rates were also determined by race/ethnicity. Results: Of the 764 cases, 744 (97.4%) were able to be geocoded. Both neighborhood level poverty and neighborhood level rurality were found to be significantly associated with STEC incidence. Age-adjusted rates of all STEC infections revealed a trend of decreasing neighborhood poverty level and increasing STEC incidence (p\u3c0.001); residents of the wealthiest census tracts were four times as likely to contract STEC compared to residents of the highest poverty census tracts. Age-adjusted rates of all STEC infections showed a trend of increasing neighborhood rurality and increasing incidence (p\u3c0.001); residents of the most rural census tracts were 1.7 times as likely to contract STEC compared to residents of the most urban census tracts The same significant incidence associations were seen among O157 STEC cases and non-O157 STEC cases separately and were consistent across time periods, age, and race/ethnicity groups. Conclusions: STEC incidence decreased as neighborhood poverty increased, showing a dose-response relationship with socioeconomic status, and increased as neighborhood rurality increased. These findings can be used to more effectively target education and interventions, especially in high-income neighborhoods, which include more rural neighborhoods in Connecticut. Area-based socioeconomic measures provide additional insights into the epidemiology of infectious diseases and can be used further to elucidate possible control and prevention measures. Future study implications include the need to better understand what risk exposures are driving the differences between higher and lower poverty areas, including among infants and children. What types of educational efforts are effective at reducing risk among those of higher SES also needs to be investigated. This analysis provides support that community-level risk factors play a larger role in the transmission of STEC

A neonicotinoid insecticide reduces fueling and delays migration in songbirds

NSERC Discovery, Kenneth M Molson Foundation, NSERC RTI, Mitacs AcceleratePeer ReviewedNeonicotinoids are neurotoxic insecticides widely used as seed treatments, but little is known of their effects on migrating birds that forage in agricultural areas. We tracked the migratory movements of imidacloprid-exposed songbirds at a landscape scale using a combination of experimental dosing and automated radio telemetry. Ingestion of field-realistic quantities of imidacloprid (1.2 or 3.9 milligrams per kilogram body mass) by white-crowned sparrows (Zonotrichia leucophrys) during migratory stopover caused a rapid reduction in food consumption, mass, and fat and significantly affected their probability of departure. Birds in the high-dose treatment stayed a median of 3.5 days longer at the site of capture after exposure as compared with controls, likely to regain fuel stores or recover from intoxication. Migration delays can carry over to affect survival and reproduction; thus, these results confirm a link between sublethal pesticide exposure and adverse outcomes for migratory bird populations

The Vaginal Microbiome: The Influence of Intramuscular Depot-medroxyprogesterone Acetate Initiation on Vaginal Microbiota and A Comparison of PCR Approaches for Use in Predicting HIV Acquisition

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2020The vaginal microbiome is a key factor in women’s reproductive health and hormones may play an important role in the composition of vaginal bacterial communities. The vaginal microbiome is commonly evaluated using broad-range polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with next generation sequencing (NGS) or taxon-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR); both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. We sought to describe how DMPA-IM initiation influences the vaginal microbiome in postpartum women and provide evidence as to whether both PCR approaches provide the same value for predicting important biological outcomes of interest, such as HIV acquisition, to help identify optimal PCR approach(s) for use in future research and clinical applications. To assess the impact of DMPA-IM initiation on the vaginal microbiome, we used data from the Postpartum Family Planning (PFP) cohort, a prospective study of postpartum women in Kenya initiating DMPA-IM or non-hormonal contraception (non-HC). Enrollment occurred at the time of contraception initiation, approximately 6-14 weeks postpartum, and vaginal swabs for Nugent score determination, taxon-specific qPCR, and broad-range 16S rRNA gene PCR coupled with NGS were collected at enrollment and three-months post-initiation. Generalized estimating equations and linear mixed models were used to estimate mean change in Nugent score, total bacterial load, taxa concentrations, and bacterial community alpha diversity in women using DMPA-IM compared to those using non-HC. The effect of DMPA-IM on microbial community composition was assessed by comparing change in community type (CT) membership, created through hierarchical clustering, using a Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The PFP cohort enrolled 54 HIV-negative women, 33 choosing DMPA-IM and 21 choosing non-HC. Women who chose DMPA-IM were more likely to be married (97% vs. 67%) and have resumed intercourse since delivery (52% vs. 29%) compared to women who chose non-HC. Baseline distributions of CTs was similar between contraceptive groups, however bacterial vaginosis by Nugent score was more common among DMPA-IM users. After three months, non-HC users were more likely to have Lactobacillus spp. dominant microbiomes compared to DMPA-IM users (n=11, 61% vs. n=8, 31%; chi-square p=0.046). Nugent score decreased significantly among DMPA-IM users (change=-1.89 points, p=0.02), however there was not a corresponding decrease in alpha diversity (change=0.03, p=0.83). Among non-HC users, Nugent score remained more stable (change=-0.73 points, p=0.33) while alpha diversity decreased (change=-0.34, p=0.05). While there were significant changes in Nugent score and alpha diversity within contraceptive groups, the observed changes were not significantly different between the groups. After three months, significant decreases in the concentrations of Sneathia species, Mycoplasma hominis, and Parvimonas species Type 1 were seen among non-HC users, however concentrations remained stable among DMPA-IM users; contraceptive method was associated with significantly different changes in M. hominis concentration between groups (p=0.010). To assess how abundance measures from qPCR and NGS compare in their relative value for predicting HIV acquisition, we used data from a case-control study evaluating the association between vaginal bacteria and HIV acquisition comprised of women from Eastern and Southern Africa at risk of HIV. A subset of 55 cases and 55 matched controls had both NGS and qPCR sequencing performed on their samples. We generated a series of models using logistic regression to assess the performance of bacterial concentration, from 9 selected taxa, and relative abundance measures as predictors of HIV. We performed principal components analysis (PCA) to assess the combined predictive value of bacterial abundances of taxa of interest. We also performed least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to select the most informative taxa for HIV prediction. Level of discrimination was quantified using the area under the receiver‐operating curve (AUC) and AUCs were compared between models. Within the nested case-control study, median concentrations and relative abundances of bacteria associated with HIV acquisition were low. A reference model containing demographic and risk factor variables had an acceptable discrimination value (AUC=0.706, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.609-0.804). The first three principal components (PCs) from qPCR data resulted in an AUC=0.787 (95%CI: 0.702-0.872) and the first three PCs from NGS data resulted in an AUC=0.761 (95%CI: 0.672-0.850). AUCs from LASSO selection resulted in similar discrimination (AUC=0.771 vs. AUC=0.784, respectively); there was no significant difference in discrimination between PCR approaches. In a cohort of postpartum African women, vaginal bacterial diversity did not change in DMPA-IM users despite a reduction in Nugent-BV, but decreased significantly among women using non-HC. Choice of contraception may influence Lactobacillus recovery in postpartum women. Additionally, our findings suggest that postpartum use of DMPA-IM and non-HC may have differential impacts on the vaginal concentrations of some bacteria that have previously been associated with HIV acquisition. In the nested case-control study, we found the abundance of bacterial taxa associated with HIV acquisition from qPCR, in the form of concentration, and from broad-range PCR with NGS, in the form of relative abundance, provide similar predictive discrimination between women who acquired HIV and women who remained HIV uninfected

Dietary and Activity Factors Influence Poor Sleep and the Sleep-Obesity Nexus among Children

Background: Behavioral factors such as physical activity, sedentary behavior and diet have previously been found to be key modifiable determinants of childhood overweight and obesity, yet require further investigation to provide an understanding of their potential influence on sleep outcomes along with the sleep-obesity nexus. Methods: The study included 2253 students (ages 8.8−13.5) from two monitoring studies across regional Victoria. Students completed a self-report electronic questionnaire on demographic characteristics, health behaviors (including sleep, physical activity, screen time and diet) and well-being, and were invited to have anthropometric measurements (height and weight) taken. Regression models were used to assess the associations between sleep, behavioral factors and BMI z-scores. Results: Screen time (particularly in bed) and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption were shown to increase the likelihood of having more than three sleep problems, while physical activity and other dietary factors were not. After controlling for these behaviors, significance remained for having two or more than three sleep problems and an increased odds of overweight/obesity. Conclusions: This study highlights how the usage of screen devices and SSB consumption behaviors might influence children’s weight status via the sleep-obesity nexus

Death and Rebirth in Queer Fandoms

Panel Rationale This panel takes up the conference theme “Reinvention” through a focus on changes occurring to fandoms, fan communities, and fan practices with regard to feminism and sexuality. Cultural and generational changes contribute to: ongoing shifts in the reception of feminist and queer media texts; the technology fans use to create, share, and find work; and attitudes toward other existing media canons. An individual fan’s lifestyle and lifecycle within fandoms is marked by a series of deaths and rebirths. Our papers interrogate reinvention in fandom and fan practices through a variety of methodological approaches. First, Bridget Kies looks at how, as new and more diverse canons become favored, “cancel culture” has contributed to the cultural death of LGBTQ media texts once considered groundbreaking. Kies finds tension in this ahistorical approach to queerness and the simultaneous reiteration of the power of fandoms. Next, Katherine Morrissey examines the digital platforms fans use to distribute fan works and their affordances. Morrissey interrogates the relationship between these platforms and ways different generations of fans organize fan works and conceptualize their desires. Finally, drawing on an autoethnographic account of her Baby-Sitters Club fandom, Megan Connor traces how long-term fandom deeply bound up in identity-making shifts alongside changes in identity. Specifically, Connor identifies strategies of retroactively queering a fan-text following her own coming out, especially alongside new entries to the canon and the growth of fan-created paratexts. Canceling Queerness: Historical Media and the Problem with ProgressBridget Kies When The L Word (2004-2009) premiered, it was hailed as groundbreaking but has since been met with criticism that it made too many “mistakes” with representation. Its announced revival in 2020 as The L Word: Generation Q was subsequently received with skepticism. The original series’ focus on affluent lesbians didn’t seem authentic to a wider spectrum of gender and sexual identities today. To allay concerns, the revival has included more BIPOC characters and trans actors. When The Boys in the Band (1970) was revived for Broadway and then turned into a feature film for Netflix in 2020, producers opted to keep some of the original script’s offensive language, justifying their choice as historically accurate. The different approaches to historical concerns taken by The L Word and The Boys in the Band demonstrate some of the key tensions with queer representation. This paper uses a broad understanding of “cancel culture” as a backlash toward and blackballing of that which is deemed offensive. Drawing on popular criticism, fan commentary, and social media posts, this paper shows how “cancelling” historical queer media creates a double-bind. Cancelling contributes to a larger cultural phenomenon in which queer history has been systematically erased. At the same time, fans who cancel historical media texts often turn their passions to contemporary media that moves beyond a gay/straight binary and is produced through the lived experience of its creative team. Thus, as queer media history is erased, greater possibilities for new forms of media queerness are opened up. From Sla/sh to #Ship: An Archive of Our Own and the Restructuring of Fan Networks Katherine E. Morrissey The not-for-profit website Archive of Our Own (AO3) has become a nexus for fans to write and read fanfiction. Launched in 2008, AO3 emerged when Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube were establishing themselves as major Web 2.0 platforms. AO3’s widespread adoption signals a shift in the visibility and organizational capacity of fan networks. These industrial and technological changes intersect with another change for fan practices: a move away from terms like “slash” and towards #ships. In the late 20th century, media fandoms used the term slash as an identity and a genre label for male/male content. Fans “slashed” beloved characters and self-identified as “slashers.” The term unified a subset of fans interested in sexy, romantic, male/male content across media fandoms. Today, same-gender pairings remain popular, but the word slash is falling out of use. Instead, many fans rely on pairings and “ships” to mark their fandoms and tag internet content. AO3’s interface and affordances helped enable this transition. However, AO3 and its parent organization, the Organization for Transformative Works, exist because slashers organized and advocated for themselves. Utilizing fan archives, posts, and websites from the past and present, I argue the move from slash to ships signals a fundamental change in how fan content is organized and how fans conceptualize sexuality, gender, and desire. However, it also marks the loss of an identity that once forged connections across fan networks and raises questions about the fragmentation of fans into ever smaller fandom silos. Kristy Sun, Mallory Rising: Fannish Identification and Rereading Queer Potential in The Baby-Sitters Club Megan Connor As a young girl, my obsession with The Baby-Sitters Club (BSC), a middle-grade book series about a group of girls and their adventures in baby-sitting reached such levels that I would casually talk about the characters as if they were my real life friends. My parents’ varying levels of concern about this behavior as I grew up has become a well-trod family anecdote. However, in recent years, my passion for the series has returned. I once again display my collection of 100+ thin pastel tomes and (attempt to) casually reference the series in conversation. This paper uses the mode of autoethnography to explore the differences between these two high-water marks in my BSC fandom―then and now―performing what Harrington and Bielby call a “life-course analysis.” I situate myself as part of a larger Millennial cohort of women (the target demographic of the series), while also identifying my specific positionality and preoccupations as a white, cisgender bisexual woman and feminist media studies scholar. I first provide context for my childhood fandom, identifying the ways the series was bound up in my identity-making process. I then focus on my selective rereading of the series after coming out as a queer woman―a significant identity shift. I identify fannish strategies of hunting for queer significance and suggest that such an identity change, like coming out, necessitates a shift in fan identity and behavior as well