Network structure of inter-industry flows

We study the structure of inter-industry relationships using networks of money flows between industries in 20 national economies. We find these networks vary around a typical structure characterized by a Weibull link weight distribution, exponential industry size distribution, and a common community structure. The community structure is hierarchical, with the top level of the hierarchy comprising five industry communities: food industries, chemical industries, manufacturing industries, service industries, and extraction industries.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Dynamic Carbon Emission Linkages Across Boundaries

Cities are increasingly linked to domestic and foreign markets during rapid globalization of trade. While transboundary carbon footprints of cities have been recently highlighted, we still have limited understanding of how carbon emission linkages between sectors are reshaping urban carbon footprints through time. In this study, we propose an integrated input-output approach to trace the dynamics of various types of carbon emission linkages associated with a city. This approach quantifies full linkages in the urban carbon system from both production- and consumption-based perspectives. We assess the dynamic roles that economic sectors and activities play in manipulating multiscale linkages induced by local, domestic, and international inputs. Using Beijing as a case study, we find that imports from domestic and foreign markets have an increasing impact on the city's carbon footprint with more distant linkages during the period from 1990 to 2012. The manufacturing-related carbon emission linkages have been increasingly transferred outside the urban boundary since 2005, while the linkages from the energy sector to services sectors remain important in Beijing's local economy. Applying systems thinking to input-output linkage analysis provides important details on when and how carbon emission linkages evolved in cities, whereby sector-oriented and activity-oriented carbon mitigation policies can be formulated

Functional Integration of Ecological Networks through Pathway Proliferation

Large-scale structural patterns commonly occur in network models of complex systems including a skewed node degree distribution and small-world topology. These patterns suggest common organizational constraints and similar functional consequences. Here, we investigate a structural pattern termed pathway proliferation. Previous research enumerating pathways that link species determined that as pathway length increases, the number of pathways tends to increase without bound. We hypothesize that this pathway proliferation influences the flow of energy, matter, and information in ecosystems. In this paper, we clarify the pathway proliferation concept, introduce a measure of the node--node proliferation rate, describe factors influencing the rate, and characterize it in 17 large empirical food-webs. During this investigation, we uncovered a modular organization within these systems. Over half of the food-webs were composed of one or more subgroups that were strongly connected internally, but weakly connected to the rest of the system. Further, these modules had distinct proliferation rates. We conclude that pathway proliferation in ecological networks reveals subgroups of species that will be functionally integrated through cyclic indirect effects.Comment: 29 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, Submitted to Journal of Theoretical Biolog

What makes Input-Output Tables of Trade of Raw Material Goods Peculiar Networks? The World and Mexican Cases

(¿Qué hace que las tablas insumo-producto del comercio de mercancías de materia prima sean redes peculiares? Los casos mundial y mexicano)Objetivo: se examinan varias peculiaridades de las tablas de input-output (IOT) del comercio de materias primas cuando se tratan como redes. Metodología: dos IOTs de comercio de materias primas (mundial y México) se comparan con una red con distribución de escala y organización jerárquica (una base de datos de correos electrónicos) utilizando distintas centralidades y estadísticas de la teoría de grafos. Resultados: las IOTs son un tipo de gráfico muy particular debido a su idiosincrasia, para las cuales las medidas de estándar de gráficas no proporcionan resultados satisfactorios, y que deben adaptarse para dar un retrato fragmentado de toda la red. Recomendaciones: las herramientas analíticas de redes aplicadas a las IOTs mejoran la comprensión del comercio de materias primas, a nivel nacional como mundial, lo cual es útil en el diseño de la política comercial. Limitaciones: no se incluye la centralidad de caminata aleatoria ni cambios de régimen por shocks externos. Originalidad: es una contribución novedosa que resalta particularidades de las IOTs, vistas como redes, para México. Conclusiones: se encuentran importantes particularidades de las IOTs al compararlas con otras redes.Objective: This paper examines several peculiarities of Input-Output Tables (IOTs) of trade of raw material goods when treated as networks. Methodology: two IOTs of trade of raw material goods (World and Mexico) are compared with a network with a scale free distribution and hierarchical organization (an email database) by using distinct centralities and statistics from graph theory. Results: IOTs are a very particular type of graph due to their idiosyncrasies, for which standard graph measures cannot provide satisfactory results, and which have to be adapted to give a fragmented picture of the whole network. Recommendations: analytical tools of network theory applied to IOTs substantially improve the understanding of trade of raw material goods, both at the national and the global level, which is useful in the design of trade policy. Limitations: this research does not include random walk centrality and regime switching from external shocks. Originality: this is a novel research that enlightens the particularities of the IOTs, seen as networks, for the Mexican case. Conclusions: this investigation finds important particularities of IOTs when compared with other networks

Transforming innovation for decarbonisation? Insights from combining complex systems and social practice perspectives

Technological innovations seem to be among the great promises for achieving the urgent modernisation of economies towards carbon-neutrality. Ranging from fusion energy, bio-based fuels, carbon capture and storage to PV panels and so-called smart energy systems, plenty of technologies promise to reduce use or greenhouse gas emissions of carbon based energy sources. This techno-centric view disregards to a great extent that technological change affects and is affected by societal practices and norms. The present paper argues that contemporary methodological approaches informed by complex systems and social practices theories provide urgently needed insights into innovation for decarbonisation. It specifically addresses the following questions: Why are current conceptualisations of innovation narrowly framed and with what consequences? How would a framing of innovation grounded on complex systems and social practice theories improve the understanding of opportunities and challenges at stake with innovation for decarbonisation? How could this framing help uncover and deploy an important and still often neglected social innovation potential? In a nutshell, the authors advocate for research and policy agendas that are firmly grounded in social practices and take complex and dynamic interactions of energy supply and demand as departing point to seriously reflect about the transitions that are put before us

Percutaneous revascularization for ischemic left ventricular dysfunction: Cost-effectiveness analysis of the REVIVED-BCIS2 trial

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is frequently undertaken in patients with ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The REVIVED (Revascularization for Ischemic Ventricular Dysfunction)-BCIS2 (British Cardiovascular Society-2) trial concluded that PCI did not reduce the incidence of all-cause death or heart failure hospitalization; however, patients assigned to PCI reported better initial health-related quality of life than those assigned to optimal medical therapy (OMT) alone. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of PCI+OMT compared with OMT alone. METHODS: REVIVED-BCIS2 was a prospective, multicenter UK trial, which randomized patients with severe ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction to either PCI+OMT or OMT alone. Health care resource use (including planned and unplanned revascularizations, medication, device implantation, and heart failure hospitalizations) and health outcomes data (EuroQol 5-dimension 5-level questionnaire) on each patient were collected at baseline and up to 8 years post-randomization. Resource use was costed using publicly available national unit costs. Within the trial, mean total costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated from the perspective of the UK health system. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using estimated mean costs and QALYs in both groups. Regression analysis was used to adjust for clinically relevant predictors. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2020, 700 patients were recruited (mean age: PCI+OMT=70 years, OMT=68 years; male (%): PCI+OMT=87, OMT=88); median follow-up was 3.4 years. Over all follow-ups, patients undergoing PCI yielded similar health benefits at higher costs compared with OMT alone (PCI+OMT: 4.14 QALYs, £22 352; OMT alone: 4.16 QALYs, £15 569; difference: −0.015, £6782). For both groups, most health resource consumption occurred in the first 2 years post-randomization. Probabilistic results showed that the probability of PCI being cost-effective was 0. CONCLUSIONS: A minimal difference in total QALYs was identified between arms, and PCI+OMT was not cost-effective compared with OMT, given its additional cost. A strategy of routine PCI to treat ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction does not seem to be a justifiable use of health care resources in the United Kingdom

Arrhythmia and death following percutaneous revascularization in ischemic left ventricular dysfunction: Prespecified analyses from the REVIVED-BCIS2 trial

BACKGROUND: Ventricular arrhythmia is an important cause of mortality in patients with ischemic left ventricular dysfunction. Revascularization with coronary artery bypass graft or percutaneous coronary intervention is often recommended for these patients before implantation of a cardiac defibrillator because it is assumed that this may reduce the incidence of fatal and potentially fatal ventricular arrhythmias, although this premise has not been evaluated in a randomized trial to date. METHODS: Patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction, extensive coronary disease, and viable myocardium were randomly assigned to receive either percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) plus optimal medical and device therapy (OMT) or OMT alone. The composite primary outcome was all-cause death or aborted sudden death (defined as an appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy or a resuscitated cardiac arrest) at a minimum of 24 months, analyzed as time to first event on an intention-to-treat basis. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular death or aborted sudden death, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapy or sustained ventricular arrhythmia, and number of appropriate ICD therapies. RESULTS: Between August 28, 2013, and March 19, 2020, 700 patients were enrolled across 40 centers in the United Kingdom. A total of 347 patients were assigned to the PCI+OMT group and 353 to the OMT alone group. The mean age of participants was 69 years; 88% were male; 56% had hypertension; 41% had diabetes; and 53% had a clinical history of myocardial infarction. The median left ventricular ejection fraction was 28%; 53.1% had an implantable defibrillator inserted before randomization or during follow-up. All-cause death or aborted sudden death occurred in 144 patients (41.6%) in the PCI group and 142 patients (40.2%) in the OMT group (hazard ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.82–1.30]; P =0.80). There was no between-group difference in the occurrence of any of the secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: PCI was not associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality or aborted sudden death. In patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, PCI is not beneficial solely for the purpose of reducing potentially fatal ventricular arrhythmias. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT01920048

Effect of remote ischaemic conditioning on clinical outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI): a single-blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Remote ischaemic conditioning with transient ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm has been shown to reduce myocardial infarct size in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). We investigated whether remote ischaemic conditioning could reduce the incidence of cardiac death and hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months. METHODS: We did an international investigator-initiated, prospective, single-blind, randomised controlled trial (CONDI-2/ERIC-PPCI) at 33 centres across the UK, Denmark, Spain, and Serbia. Patients (age >18 years) with suspected STEMI and who were eligible for PPCI were randomly allocated (1:1, stratified by centre with a permuted block method) to receive standard treatment (including a sham simulated remote ischaemic conditioning intervention at UK sites only) or remote ischaemic conditioning treatment (intermittent ischaemia and reperfusion applied to the arm through four cycles of 5-min inflation and 5-min deflation of an automated cuff device) before PPCI. Investigators responsible for data collection and outcome assessment were masked to treatment allocation. The primary combined endpoint was cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure at 12 months in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02342522) and is completed. FINDINGS: Between Nov 6, 2013, and March 31, 2018, 5401 patients were randomly allocated to either the control group (n=2701) or the remote ischaemic conditioning group (n=2700). After exclusion of patients upon hospital arrival or loss to follow-up, 2569 patients in the control group and 2546 in the intervention group were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. At 12 months post-PPCI, the Kaplan-Meier-estimated frequencies of cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure (the primary endpoint) were 220 (8·6%) patients in the control group and 239 (9·4%) in the remote ischaemic conditioning group (hazard ratio 1·10 [95% CI 0·91-1·32], p=0·32 for intervention versus control). No important unexpected adverse events or side effects of remote ischaemic conditioning were observed. INTERPRETATION: Remote ischaemic conditioning does not improve clinical outcomes (cardiac death or hospitalisation for heart failure) at 12 months in patients with STEMI undergoing PPCI. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, University College London Hospitals/University College London Biomedical Research Centre, Danish Innovation Foundation, Novo Nordisk Foundation, TrygFonden