Benchmarking the Acceleration of Materials Discovery by Sequential Learning

Sequential learning (SL) strategies, i.e. iteratively updating a machine learning model to guide experiments, have been proposed to significantly accelerate materials discovery and research. Applications on computational datasets and a handful of optimization experiments have demonstrated the promise of SL, motivating a quantitative evaluation of its ability to accelerate materials discovery, specifically in the case of physical experiments. The benchmarking effort in the present work quantifies the performance of SL algorithms with respect to a breadth of research goals: discovery of any “good” material, discovery of all “good” materials, and discovery of a model that accurately predicts the performance of new materials. To benchmark the effectiveness of different machine learning models against these goals, we use datasets in which the performance of all materials in the search space is known from high-throughput synthesis and electrochemistry experiments. Each dataset contains all pseudo-quaternary metal oxide combinations from a set of six elements (chemical space), the performance metric chosen is the electrocatalytic activity (overpotential) for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER). A diverse set of SL schemes is tested on four chemical spaces, each containing 2121 catalysts. The presented work suggests that research can be accelerated by up to a factor of 20 compared to random acquisition in specific scenarios. The results also show that certain choices of SL models are ill-suited for a given research goal resulting in substantial deceleration compared to random acquisition methods. The results provide quantitative guidance on how to tune an SL strategy for a given research goal and demonstrate the need for a new generation of materials-aware SL algorithms to further accelerate materials discovery

A cyclic electrochemical strategy to produce acetylene from CO2, CH4, or alternative carbon sources

Electrochemical transformation of potent greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 to produce useful carbon-based products is a highly desirable sustainability goal. However, selectivity challenges remain in aqueous electrochemical processes as selective CO2 reduction to desired products is difficult and electrochemical CH4 oxidation often proceeds at very low rates. The formation of C–C coupled products in these fields is particularly desirable as this provides a path for the production of high-value fuels and chemicals. We have developed a cyclic electrochemical strategy which can produce acetylene, a C–C coupled product, from such carbon sources and water, with favorable current density and selectivity. This strategy is exemplified with a lithium-mediated cycle: an active Li0 surface is electrochemically generated from LiOH, the newly formed Li0 reacts with a carbon source to form Li2C2, and Li2C2 is hydrolyzed to form acetylene and regenerate LiOH. We demonstrate this process primarily using CO2 gas, achieving a current efficiency of 15% to acetylene (which represents 82% of the maximum based on stoichiometric production of oxygenated byproducts, e.g. LiCO3 and/or Li2O), as verified by gas chromatography and Fourier transform infrared radiation studies. We also explore CH4, CO, and C as alternative precursors in the acetylene synthesis. Notably, the use of graphitic carbon at higher temperatures resulted in over 55% current efficiency to acetylene, with opportunity for further optimization. Importantly, this cycling method avoids the formation of common side products observed during aqueous electrochemical CO2 and CH4 redox reactions, such as H2, CO, HCO2−, or CO2. Theoretical considerations elucidate the feasibility and general applicability of this cycle and the process steps have been characterized with specific electrochemical and materials chemistry techniques. The continued development of this strategy may lead to a viable route for the sustainable production of C–C coupled carbon fuels and chemicals

Sexual Behaviors and HIV Status: A Population-Based Study Among Older Adults in Rural South Africa

Objective: To identify the unmet needs for HIV prevention among older adults in rural South Africa. Methods: We analyzed data from a population-based sample of 5059 men and women aged 40 years and older from the study Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of INDEPTH Communities (HAALSI), which was carried out in the Agincourt health and sociodemographic surveillance system in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa. We estimated the prevalence of HIV (laboratory-confirmed and self-reported) and key sexual behaviors by age and sex. We compared sexual behavior profiles across HIV status categories with and without age–sex standardization. Results: HIV prevalence was very high among HAALSI participants (23%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 21 to 24), with no sex differences. Recent sexual activity was common (56%, 95% CI: 55 to 58) across all HIV status categories. Condom use was low among HIV-negative adults (15%, 95% CI: 14 to 17), higher among HIV-positive adults who were unaware of their HIV status (27%, 95% CI: 22 to 33), and dramatically higher among HIV-positive adults who were aware of their status (75%, 95% CI: 70 to 80). Casual sex and multiple partnerships were reported at moderate levels, with slightly higher estimates among HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative adults. Differences by HIV status remained after age–sex standardization. Conclusions: Older HIV-positive adults in an HIV hyperendemic community of rural South Africa report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV transmission risk. Older HIV-negative adults report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV acquisition risk. Prevention initiatives tailored to the particular prevention needs of older adults are urgently needed to reduce HIV risk in this and similar communities in sub-Saharan Africa

Performance of self-reported HIV status in determining true HIV status among older adults in rural South Africa: a validation study

Abstract Introduction:: In South Africa, older adults make up a growing proportion of people living with HIV. HIV programmes are likely to reach older South Africans in home-based interventions where testing is not always feasible. We evaluate the accuracy of self-reported HIV status, which may provide useful information for targeting interventions or offer an alternative to biomarker testing. Methods:: Data were taken from the Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) baseline survey, which was conducted in rural Mpumalanga province, South Africa. A total of 5059 participants aged ≥40 years were interviewed from 2014 to 2015. Self-reported HIV status and dried bloodspots for HIV biomarker testing were obtained during at-home interviews. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for self-reported status compared to “gold standard” biomarker results. Log-binomial regression explored associations between demographic characteristics, antiretroviral therapy (ART) status and sensitivity of self-report. Results:: Most participants (93%) consented to biomarker testing. Of those with biomarker results, 50.9% reported knowing their HIV status and accurately reported it. PPV of self-report was 94.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 92.0–96.0), NPV was 87.2% (95% CI: 86.2–88.2), sensitivity was 51.2% (95% CI: 48.2–54.3) and specificity was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.7–99.4). Participants on ART were more likely to report their HIV-positive status, and participants reporting false-negatives were more likely to have older HIV tests. Conclusions:: The majority of participants were willing to share their HIV status. False-negative reports were largely explained by lack of testing, suggesting HIV stigma is retreating in this setting, and that expansion of HIV testing and retesting is still needed in this population. In HIV interventions where testing is not possible, self-reported status should be considered as a routine first step to establish HIV status

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline