Regional Geographic Factors Mediate the Climate-war Relationship in Europe

It has been demonstrated in recent studies by that wars occurred with greater frequency in Europe in periods of cold climate over the past millennium, and food scarcity is the explanation. However, the issue of whether the climate-war relationship holds consistently across the European continent has been insufficiently explored. In the present study, we seek to advance the macroscopic understanding of the climate-war association in Europe via the statistical analysis of fine-grained paleo-climate and historical warfare data covering the period 1400–1999, with a specific focus on how regional geographic factors mediate the association. Our statistical results show that the climate-war correlation varied across Europe. At multi-centennial time-scale, temperature-war correlation was stronger in Eastern Europe, in part because of the region’s greater dependence on agriculture and in part due to the region’s prevailing continental climate. At multi-decadal to centennial time-scale, the temperature-war correlation in Europe was periodically distorted when population pressure was unleashed via a significant decline in the rate of population growth or through industrialization. Furthermore, the regional disparity in terms of population growth rate and pace of industrialization might be responsible for the diverse trends and trajectories of the temperature-war correlation in Eastern Europe and Western Europe. Our results may help to resolve some major controversies about the climate-conflict link.published_or_final_versio

Migration in the Middle East: Transformation and change

The large-scale international movement of manpower is one of the most dramatic effects of the oil price increase and related events of 1973. The issues raised by migration in the Middle East have not received the attention they deserve from political analysts, economists, or area specialists. Yet the economic development of the Arab region is critically tied to manpower requirements; many of the bottlenecks and constraints on economic growth stem directly from the flow of labor across national borders. So, too, labor migration is changing the political demography of the region, shaping the parameters for political and social conflict in the years to come. This paper places contemporary migration in the Middle East in its historical context and then reviews the transformations in migration over the past ten years. It seeks to trace the evolution of migration processes. The basic, guiding proposition is that the "reality" has changed. The challenge lies in delineating these transformations and identifying the various flows and sequences in the evolution of the migration process

Positive Correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Violent Conflicts in Europe

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Who wins and who loses from protectionism

SIGLEBibliothek Weltwirtschaft Kiel YY11,338 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism

Benghal dayflower (Commelina benghalensis) seed viability in soil

Benghal dayflower is an exotic weed species in the United States that is a challenge to manage in agricultural fields. Research was conducted in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida to evaluate the longevity of buried Benghal dayflower seeds. Seeds were buried in the field for 2 to 60 mo at a depth of 20 cm in mesh bags containing soil native to each area. In North Carolina, decline of Benghal dayflower seed viability was described by a sigmoidal regression model, with seed size having no effect on viability. Seed viability at the initiation of the study was 81%. After burial, viability declined to 51% after 24 mo, 27% after 36 mo, and \u3c ‰1% after 42 mo. In Georgia, initial seed viability averaged 86% and declined to 63 and 33% at 12 and 24 mo, respectively. Burial of 36 mo or longer reduced seed viability to \u3c ‰2%. The relationship between Benghal dayflower seed viability and burial time was described by a sigmoidal regression model. In Florida, there was greater variability in Benghal dayflower seed viability than there was at the other locations. Seed viability at the first sampling date after 2 mo of burial was 63%. Although there were fluctuations during the first 24 mo, the regression model indicated approximately 60% of seed remained viable. After 34 mo of burial, seed viability was reduced to 46% and then rapidly fell to 7% at 39 mo, which was consistent with the decrease in seed viability at the other locations. Although there is a physical dormancy imposed by the seed coat of Benghal dayflower, which has been detected in previous studies, it appears that a decline in buried seed viability to minimal levels occurs within 39 to 48 mo in the southeastern United States, suggesting that management programs must prevent seed production for at least four growing seasons to severely reduce the Benghal dayflower soil seedbank