Šnekamosios kalbos identifikavimas

Šiame straipsnyje gilinamasi į skirtingų autorių naudojamus šnekamosios kalbos identifikavimo metodus ir pasiektus rezultatus. Tiriamos jau egzistuojančios atviro kodo sistemos. Bandoma jas optimizuoti, apjungti naudojant bendrą duomenų rinkinį, atlikti kryžminį sistemų patikrinimą ir apjungti gautus rezultatus naudojant meta-klasifikatorių [1]. Taip pat, didesniam klasifikavimo tikslumui išgauti yra panaudojamas šnekos atpažinimo servisas, gauti rezultatai yra sujungiami su atviro kodo sistemų rezultatais naudojant meta-klasifikatorių. Tyrime yra atlikti 4 eksperimentai, kurių pagalba buvo pasiektas statistiškai reikšmingas klasifikavimo tikslumo pagerinimas

Robust Estimation of Loss Models for Truncated and Censored Severity Data

In this paper, we consider robust estimation of claim severity models in insurance, when data are affected by truncation (due to deductibles), censoring (due to policy limits), and scaling (due to coinsurance). In particular, robust estimators based on the methods of trimmed moments (T-estimators) and winsorized moments (W-estimators) are pursued and fully developed. The general definitions of such estimators are formulated and their asymptotic properties are investigated. For illustrative purposes, specific formulas for T- and W-estimators of the tail parameter of a single-parameter Pareto distribution are derived. The practical performance of these estimators is then explored using the well-known Norwegian fire claims data. Our results demonstrate that T- and W-estimators offer a robust and computationally efficient alternative to the likelihood-based inference for models that are affected by deductibles, policy limits, and coinsurance.Comment: 32 pages, 2 figure

Gyvenimas virš vandens ankstyvuoju metalų laikotarpiu Lietuvoje. Įspūdžiai apie Elenos Pranckėnaitės disertacijos gynimą

Scientific lifeDOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15181/ahuk.v25i0.33

Method of Winsorized Moments for Robust Fitting of Truncated and Censored Lognormal Distributions

When constructing parametric models to predict the cost of future claims, several important details have to be taken into account: (i) models should be designed to accommodate deductibles, policy limits, and coinsurance factors, (ii) parameters should be estimated robustly to control the influence of outliers on model predictions, and (iii) all point predictions should be augmented with estimates of their uncertainty. The methodology proposed in this paper provides a framework for addressing all these aspects simultaneously. Using payment-per-payment and payment-per-loss variables, we construct the adaptive version of method of winsorized moments (MWM) estimators for the parameters of truncated and censored lognormal distribution. Further, the asymptotic distributional properties of this approach are derived and compared with those of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of trimmed moments (MTM) estimators. The latter being a primary competitor to MWM. Moreover, the theoretical results are validated with extensive simulation studies and risk measure sensitivity analysis. Finally, practical performance of these methods is illustrated using the well-studied data set of 1500 U.S. indemnity losses. With this real data set, it is also demonstrated that the composite models do not provide much improvement in the quality of predictive models compared to a stand-alone fitted distribution specially for truncated and censored sample data.Comment: 35 pages, 4 figures, et

Evolução espaço-temporal da área de restinga do setor norte do município de Pontal do Paraná (PR)

Orientador: Marcelo Renato LamourMonografia (graduação) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Campus Pontal do Paraná - Centro de Estudos do Mar, Curso de Graduação em OceanografiaInclui referênciasResumo : O município de Pontal do Paraná (25°45’S/48°30’W), localizado na porção centro-norte do litoral paranaense, configura uma área de grande importância ecológica por comportar Áreas de Preservação Permanente (APP) como restingas e manguezais que, ao longo do tempo, passaram a experimentar degradação ambiental pelo consequente aumento da urbanização. Compreender os processos costeiros é fundamental para a elaboração de planos de manejo e gestão ambiental, oferecendo segurança a população, a propriedade e a biota. Desta maneira, o objetivo geral deste trabalho consistiu em caracterizar o uso do solo das áreas de restinga dos balneários de Barrancos - Pontal do Sul, evidenciando taxas de variação da posição da linha de costa (erosão e/ou deposição sedimentar) ao longo do tempo. Para tanto foi executada a análise comparativa entre quatro conjuntos de fotografias aéreas dos anos de 1953, 1980, 2003 e 2012, sendo o último obtido através de um Veículo Aéreo Não Tripulado (VANT). Os resultados foram integrados e analisados em um Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG), onde possibilitou a caracterização do uso do solo e feições naturais, bem como a confecção de mapas temáticos usados para a interpretação espacial da variação da linha de costa. Os resultados demonstram que as intervenções que ocorrem sobre a área são bastante variadas, contemplando as seguintes categorias: trilhas de acesso à praia; descaracterização da vegetação; ranchos de pesca; e sangradouros. A descaracterização da vegetação está associada em maior parte com a instalação de infra-estruturas de grande porte, assim como quadras esportivas, jardins e paisagismo. Os ranchos de pesca estão associados à colônia de pescadores, são obras de pequeno porte, indicando uma baixa alteração ao ambiente. Os sangradouros presentes na área de estudo são característicos de planícies costeiras e indicam uma tendência de acreção bem como sentido de migração do corpo d’água no sentido N, provavelmente motivada pelo transporte dos sedimentos realizado pela corrente de deriva litorânea que possui sentido S-N. Foi observado no presente estudo um crescimento exponencial das trilhas de acesso à praia ao longo dos anos favorecido pelo consequente adensamento urbano do município. Essas categorias correspondem a uma alteração crítica nas características do sistema ecológico, indicando ao mesmo tempo a dificuldade e necessidade de proteção e gerenciamento da área. Com relação à evolução da posição da linha de costa disposta na área de estudo, entre os anos de 1953 e 2012 foram identificados processos sedimentares predominantemente deposicionais, com o avanço da linha de costa na maior parte de sua extensão. A progradação da linha de costa aumenta seguindo na direção norte, conforme a proximidade da desembocadura na Baía de Paranaguá Contudo, em períodos de menor abrangência temporal podem-se observar pequenos trechos de erosão, possivelmente relacionados com a mudança da dinâmica praial e conformação do sistema, sendo mais observados no balneário de Pontal II, o qual apresenta uma maior sensibilidade à erosão Os problemas ambientais resultantes da falta de planejamento urbano e de gestão desse espaço estão se tornando cada vez mais evidentes, desta maneira, é de se esperar ações administrativas por parte do governo para minimização dos mesmos

When Inflation Causes No Increase in Claim Amounts

It is well known that when (re)insurance coverages involve a deductible, the impact of inflation of loss amounts is distorted, and the changes in claims paid by the (re)insurer cannot be assumed to reflect the rate of inflation. A particularly interesting phenomenon occurs when losses follow a Pareto distribution. In this case, the observed loss amounts (those that exceed the deductible) are identically distributed from year to year even in the presence of inflation. Nevertheless, in this paper we succeed in estimating the inflation rate from the observations. We develop appropriate statistical inferential methods to quantify the inflation rate and illustrate them using simulated data. Our solution hinges on the recognition that the distribution of the number of observed losses changes from year to year depending on the inflation rate

Factors in Patient Responsiveness to Directional Preference-Matched Treatment of Neck Pain With or Without Upper Extremity Radiation

Purpose: Patient-related predictive factors in responsiveness to directional preference therapy for neck pain with or without upper extremity radiation (NP/R) have not been reported. A directional preference is any neck movement that, when performed repeatedly to end range, results in centralization and/or alleviation of NP/R. It was hypothesized that patient compliance with a prescribed, directional preference-matched home exercise program would improve positive responsiveness to NP/R treatment. Methods: Patient-related factors thought to affect responsiveness to care were collected retrospectively from charts and de-identified for patients with NP/R who underwent chiropractic treatment at a multispecialty spine clinic from January 2014 through June 2015. Responsiveness was measured by calculating the percentage change in Neck Bournemouth Questionnaire (NBQ) scores over treatment time. Multiple linear regression was used to identify factors associated with positive responsiveness. Results: Mean percentage change in patient NBQ score from initial intake to discharge was 50% (standard deviation: 32%). Of 104 patients meeting study inclusion criteria, 86 (83%) reported experiencing improvement after the first treatment session. Bivariate analysis of patient characteristics by compliance with directional preference-matched exercise indicated that compliant patients (n = 95, 91%) demonstrated significantly greater responsiveness to care than did noncompliant patients, at 55% versus 25% change in NBQ score, respectively (P = 0.0041). Four factors were statistically significant predictors of patient responsiveness to directional preference therapy for NP/R: patient compliance with directional preference-matched exercise (P = 0.0023), patient age (P = 0.0029), condition chronicity (P < 0.0001), and whether the patient reported improvement of symptoms following initial treatment session (P = 0.0003). Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that patient compliance with directional preference exercise is associated with patient responsiveness to conservative treatment of NP/R, as are age, chronicity and report of immediate symptom improvement

Lietuvos regionų periodikos redaktorių požiūris į valstybinės paramos skirstymo žiniasklaidai principus

It is often maintained that there is no one consistent mass media policy in Lithuania. There are, indeed, many mechanisms of state financial aid and support, and the allocation of funds itself is rather inconsistent and accidental. There is no data or information available as to how the strengths and weaknesses of the particular mechanisms created and aid/funding opportunities available are perceived by the target audience of such efforts – the staff of the editorial boards of the news outlets and the particular business owners. Having conducted a questionaire-based study and a series of in-depth structured interviews with selected typical representatives from the industry, here we delineate the perception: the editorial staff maintain that the most impactful mechanism of allocating state support for the press are direct payments, especially those distributed by the Lithuanian Media Support Foundation, though the principles regulating its decision-making should be amended so as to allow for more transparency. One should also ensure that whatever is being funded has a case for continuity, sustainability and long-term future in regard to its activities. Additionally, especially inasmuch as any allocation of funds is related to an attempt to ensure the long-term success of democratic governance, the funding is to be targeted at local news rather than national or international news. These findings are shown to be comparable to tendencies observed abroad.Dažnai pastebima, kad Lietuvoje nesama nuoseklios žiniasklaidos paramos politikos. Paramos būdų yra daug, valstybinės paramos skirstymas žiniasklaidos priemonėms yra gana stichiškas ir atsitiktinis. Iki šiol nebuvo nuosekliai tirta, kokias esamų priemonių stipriąsias ir silpnąsias savybes įžvelgia pats tipinis paramos adresatas – regionų periodikos redaktoriai ir leidėjai. Remiantis atlikta apklausa ir detaliais interviu su reprezentatyvių&nbsp;regionų&nbsp;žiniasklaidos priemonių darbuotojais,&nbsp;čia&nbsp;aptariama samprata: redaktorių nuomone, daugiausia dėmesio verta skirti tiesioginių išmokų mechanizmams, pirmiausia Spaudos, radijo ir televizijos rėmimo fondui (SRTRF), o jo asignavimų skirstymo politika galėtų būti keičiama siekiant paprastinti ir skaidrinti paramos skirstymo tvarką, labiau orientuotis į laimimos naudos tvarumą; daugiausia dėmesio – demokratijos tvarumo kontekste – prasmingiausia skirti siaurai apibrėžiamai vietinei žiniasklaidai. Regionų periodikos leidėjų išvados kontekstualizuojamos, parodant, kaip dėsningai jos pritampa teorinio diskurso ir užsienio šalių praktikos kontekste

An openbim approach to iot integration with incomplete as-built data

Digital Twins (DT) are powerful tools to support asset managers in the operation and maintenance of cognitive buildings. Building Information Models (BIM) are critical for Asset Management (AM), especially when used in conjunction with Internet of Things (IoT) and other asset data collected throughout a building’s lifecycle. However, information contained within BIM models is usually outdated, inaccurate, and incomplete as a result of unclear geometric and semantic data modelling procedures during the building life cycle. The aim of this paper is to develop an openBIM methodology to support dynamic AM applications with limited as-built information availability. The workflow is based on the use of the IfcSharedFacilitiesElements schema for processing the geometric and semantic information of both existing and newly created Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) objects, supporting real-time data integration. The methodology is validated using the West Cambridge DT Research Facility data, demonstrating good potential in supporting an asset anomaly detection application. The proposed workflow increases the automation of the digital AM processes, thanks to the adoption of BIM-IoT integration tools and methods within the context of the development of a building DT.Innovate UK, Construction Innovation Hub, Centre for Digital Built Britai