A novel approach for exploring climatic factors limiting current pest distributions: A case study of Bemisia tabaci in north-west Europe and assessment of potential future establishment in the United Kingdom under climate change

This is the final version. Available on open access from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this recordData Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.Bemisia tabaci (the tobacco whitefly) is an important agricultural pest of global significance primarily because of its ability to transmit multiple damaging plant viruses. To date, UK outbreaks of the whitefly have been restricted to glasshouses and there are no records of the whitefly establishing outdoors during the summer. This is despite the fact that annual degree-day models (that estimate accumulated warmth over the year above the development threshold), indicate that B. tabaci has the thermal potential for multiple summer generations in the UK. A set of 49 climate indices calculated using the present day climate (1986–2015) were therefore compared between the UK and the south of France, where B. tabaci is able to establish outdoors, to identify the factors limiting its establishment. The number of cold days and nights in summer, as well as the time spent within the whitefly’s optimum temperature range, were most significantly different between the two areas. These indices may impact the development of B. tabaci and offer an explanation for the absence of the whitefly outdoors in the UK during the summer. Further analyses undertaken with climate projections suggest that in a 2–4°C warmer world this pest could pose a risk to outdoor UK crops in July and August. A clear south-north gradient can be demonstrated for these indices. Linking any possible northwards spread of B. tabaci populations outdoors in France with changes in these indices could therefore provide an important indicator of any change in the risks of outdoor populations of this species developing in the UK. The effectiveness of climate indices in pest risk analysis is compellingly demonstrated, and it is recommended that in-depth comparisons of climatic indices between areas of pest presence and absence are conducted in other situations where forecasting the risks of pest establishment are complex and challenging.Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

Cirsium species show disparity in patterns of genetic variation at their range-edge, despite similar patterns of reproduction and isolation

Genetic variation was assessed across the UK geographical range of Cirsium acaule and Cirsium heterophyllum. A decline in genetic diversity and increase in population divergence approaching the range edge of these species was predicted based on parallel declines in population density and seed production reported seperately. Patterns were compared with UK populations of the widespread Cirsium arvense.Populations were sampled along a latitudinal transect in the UK and genetic variation assessed using microsatellite markers. Cirsium acaule shows strong isolation by distance, a significant decline in diversity and an increase in divergence among range-edge populations. Geographical structure is also evident in C. arvense, whereas no such patterns are seen in C.heterophyllum. There is a major disparity between patterns of genetic variation in C. acaule and C. heterophyllum despite very similar patterns in seed production and population isolation in these species. This suggests it may be misleading to make assumptions about the geographical structure of genetic variation within species based solely on the present-day reproduction and distribution of populations

Overcoming multiple drug resistance mechanisms in medulloblastoma

Introduction: Medulloblastoma (MB) is the most common malignant paediatric brain tumour. Recurrence and progression of disease occurs in 15-20% of standard risk and 30-40% of high risk patients. We analysed whether circumvention of chemoresistance pathways (drug export, DNA repair and apoptotic inhibition) can restore chemotherapeutic efficacy in a panel of MB cell lines. Results: We demonstrate, by immunohistochemistry in patient tissue microarrays, that ABCB1 is expressed in 43% of tumours and is significantly associated with high-risk. We show that ABCB1, O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) and BCL2 family members are differentially expressed (by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, Western blotting and flow cytometry) in MB cell lines. Based on these findings, each pathway was then inhibited or circumvented and cell survival assessed using clonogenic assays. Inhibition of ABCB1 using vardenafil or verapamil resulted in a significant increase in sensitivity to etoposide in ABCB1-expressing MB cell lines. Sensitivity to temozolomide (TMZ) was MGMT-dependent, but two novel imidazotetrazine derivatives (N-3 sulfoxide and N-3 propargyl TMZ analogues) demonstrated ≥7 fold and ≥3 fold more potent cytotoxicity respectively compared to TMZ in MGMT-expressing MB cell lines. Activity of the BAD mimetic ABT-737 was BCL2A1 and ABCB1 dependent, whereas the pan-BCL2 inhibitor obatoclax was effective as a single cytotoxic agent irrespective of MCL1, BCL2, BCL2A1, or ABCB1 expression. Conclusions: ABCB1 is associated with high-risk MB; hence, inhibition of ABCB1 by vardenafil may represent a valid approach in these patients. Imidazotetrazine analogues of TMZ and the BH3 mimetic obatoclax are promising clinical candidates in drug resistant MB tumours expressing MGMT and BCL2 anti-apoptotic members respectively

Hydrological impact of Middle Miocene Antarctic ice-free areas coupled to deep ocean temperatures

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability The climate model output data are available for analysis and download at https://www.paleo.bristol.ac.uk/ummodel/scripts/papers/Bradshaw_et_al_2021.html. It is possible to reproduce the information in Figs. 2, 3, 5 and 6 via this interface as well as download the data itself and the ancillary information (palaeogeography and ice-sheet configuration).Oxygen isotopes from ocean sediments (δ O) used to reconstruct past continental ice volumes additionally record deep water temperatures (DWTs). Traditionally, these are assumed to be coupled (ice-volume changes cause DWT changes). However, δ O records during peak Middle Miocene warmth (~16–15 million years ago) document large rapid fluctuations (~1–1.5‰) difficult to explain as huge Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) volume changes. Here, using climate modelling and data comparisons, we show DWTs are coupled to AIS spatial extent, not volume, because Antarctic albedo changes modify the hydrological cycle, affecting Antarctic deep water production regions. We suggest the Middle Miocene AIS had retreated substantially from previous Oligocene maxima. The residual ice sheet varied spatially more rapidly on orbital timescales than previously thought, enabling large DWT swings (up to 4 °C). When Middle Miocene warmth terminated (~13 million years ago) and a continent-scale AIS had stabilized, further ice-volume changes were predominantly in height rather than extent, with little impact on DWT. Our findings imply a shift in ocean sensitivity to ice-sheet changes occurs when AIS retreat exposes previously ice-covered land; associated feedbacks could reduce the Earth system’s ability to maintain a large AIS. This demonstrates ice-sheet changes should be characterized not only by ice volume but also by spatial extent. 18 18Natural Environment Research CouncilNatural Environment Research CouncilSwedish Research Counci

Calculation of health expectancies with administrative data for North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany, 1999–2005

Pinheiro JP, Krämer A. Calculation of health expectancies with administrative data for North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany, 1999-2005. Population Health Metrics. 2009;7(1):4.OBJECTIVES: The main objectives of this study were to prove the feasibility of health expectancy analyses with regional administrative health statistics and to explore the utility of the calculated health expectancies in describing the health state of the population living in North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Administrative population and mortality data as well as health data on disability and long-term care provided by public services were used to calculate: a) the life expectancy and b) the health expectancies Severe-Disability-Free Life Expectancy (SDFLE) and Long-Term-Care-Free Life Expectancy (LTCFLE) from 1999 to 2005. Calculations were done using the Sullivan method. RESULTS: SDFLE at birth was 69.9 years (males 66.2 and females 73.2 years) in 1999 and it increased to 71.7 years (males 68.6 and females 74.7 years) in 2005. The proportion of the SDFLE on the total life expectancy at birth was 89.8% (males 88.6 and females 90.8%) in 1999 and 90.7% (males 89.8 and females 91.4%) in 2005.LTCFLE at birth was 75.3 years (males 73.1 and females 77.5 years) in 1999 and it increased to 76.6 years (males 74.7 and females 78.6 years) in 2005. The proportion of the LTCFLE on the total life expectancy at birth was 96.8% (males 97.8 and females 96.1%) in 1999 and 96.8% (males 97.8 and females 96.2%) in 2005. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Both health expectancies indicate an improvement in the quantity as well as in the quality of healthy life for the population living in North Rhine Westphalia and therefore suggest a compression of morbidity from 1999 to 2005. The findings however have several limitations in their sensitivity, since we applied dichotomous valuations to the health states. In addition, the results are restricted to comparisons over time because the morbidity concepts do not allow for comparisons with populations other than the German one. Refined calculations with other summary measures of population health and with health data on other morbidity concepts are therefore reasonable

Does self-monitoring of blood glucose improve outcome in type 2 diabetes? The Fremantle Diabetes Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To assess whether self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) is an independent predictor of improved outcome in a community-based cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used longitudinal data from (1) 1,280 type 2 diabetic participants in the observational Fremantle Diabetes Study (FDS) who reported SMBG and diabetes treatment status at study entry (1993–1996), and (2) a subset of 531 participants who attended six or more annual assessments (referred to as the 5-year cohort). Diabetes-related morbidity, cardiac death and all-cause mortality were ascertained at each assessment, supplemented by linkage to the Western Australian Data Linkage System. RESULTS: At baseline, 70.2% (898 out of 1,280) of type 2 patients used SMBG. During 12,491 patient-years of follow-up (mean 9.8 ± 3.5 years), 486 (38.0%) type 2 participants died (196 [15.3%] from cardiac causes). SMBG was significantly less prevalent in those who died during follow-up than in those who were still alive at the end of June 2006 (65.4 vs 73.0%, p = 0.005). In Cox proportional hazards modelling, after adjustment for confounding and explanatory variables, SMBG was not independently associated with all-cause mortality, but was associated with a 79% increased risk of cardiovascular mortality in patients not treated with insulin. For the 5-year cohort, time-dependent SMBG was independently associated with a 48% reduced risk of retinopathy. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: SMBG was not independently associated with improved survival. Inconsistent findings relating to the association of SMBG with cardiac death and retinopathy may be due to confounding, incomplete covariate adjustment or chance

Activation of Ventral Tegmental Area 5-HT2C Receptors Reduces Incentive Motivation

FUNDING AND DISCLOSURE The research was funded by Wellcome Trust (WT098012) to LKH; and National Institute of Health (DK056731) and the Marilyn H. Vincent Foundation to MGM. The University of Michigan Transgenic Core facility is partially supported by the NIH-funded University of Michigan Center for Gastrointestinal Research (DK034933). The remaining authors declare no conflict of interest. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank Dr Celine Cansell, Ms Raffaella Chianese and the staff of the Medical Research Facility for technical assistance. We thank Dr Vladimir Orduña for the scientific advice and technical assistance.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Non-lethal control of the cariogenic potential of an agent-based model for dental plaque

Dental caries or tooth decay is a prevalent global disease whose causative agent is the oral biofilm known as plaque. According to the ecological plaque hypothesis, this biofilm becomes pathogenic when external challenges drive it towards a state with a high proportion of acid-producing bacteria. Determining which factors control biofilm composition is therefore desirable when developing novel clinical treatments to combat caries, but is also challenging due to the system complexity and the existence of multiple bacterial species performing similar functions. Here we employ agent-based mathematical modelling to simulate a biofilm consisting of two competing, distinct types of bacterial populations, each parameterised by their nutrient uptake and aciduricity, periodically subjected to an acid challenge resulting from the metabolism of dietary carbohydrates. It was found that one population was progressively eliminated from the system to give either a benign or a pathogenic biofilm, with a tipping point between these two fates depending on a multiplicity of factors relating to microbial physiology and biofilm geometry. Parameter sensitivity was quantified by individually varying the model parameters against putative experimental measures, suggesting non-lethal interventions that can favourably modulate biofilm composition. We discuss how the same parameter sensitivity data can be used to guide the design of validation experiments, and argue for the benefits of in silico modelling in providing an additional predictive capability upstream from in vitro experiments