The critical role of history in scenario thinking: augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology

The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether at a macroeconomic level or within individual organisations there are numerous examples of this, such as the economic crash of 2008, the causes of which had many parallels with those that caused the great depression 80 years previously. On the other hand however, overly-relying on the past as a guide to the future has its own obvious dangers – not least that important future events may have no past precedent. As such, the present paper firstly provides a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using the past as a guide to the future. It then examines the role of history in scenario work, arguing that history should receive greater emphasis as part of the scenario planning process. We suggest changes to the standard Intuitive Logics (IL) approach to scenario planning which would render learning from history a more central component of the scenario process, in contrast to its current peripheral role. Rather than diminishing scenario planning’s ability to facilitate a consideration of how the future may differ from the past, we show how a greater emphasis on history can enhance consideration of the causality of future change. An adapted IL that has more emphasis on historical analysis can augment scenario planning’s effectiveness as a tool for consideration of the future

Whole-genome DNA/RNA sequencing identifies truncating mutations in RBCK1 in a novel Mendelian disease with neuromuscular and cardiac involvement

Background: Whole-exome sequencing has identified the causes of several Mendelian diseases by analyzing multiple unrelated cases, but it is more challenging to resolve the cause of extremely rare and suspected Mendelian diseases from individual families. We identified a family quartet with two children, both affected with a previously unreported disease, characterized by progressive muscular weakness and cardiomyopathy, with normal intelligence. During the course of the study, we identified one additional unrelated patient with a comparable phenotype. Methods: We performed whole-genome sequencing (Complete Genomics platform), whole-exome sequencing (Agilent SureSelect exon capture and Illumina Genome Analyzer II platform), SNP genotyping (Illumina HumanHap550 SNP array) and Sanger sequencing on blood samples, as well as RNA-Seq (Illumina HiSeq platform) on transformed lymphoblastoid cell lines. Results: From whole-genome sequence data, we identified RBCK1, a gene encoding an E3 ubiquitin-protein ligase, as the most likely candidate gene, with two protein-truncating mutations in probands in the first family. However, exome data failed to nominate RBCK1 as a candidate gene, due to poor regional coverage. Sanger sequencing identified a private homozygous splice variant in RBCK1 in the proband in the second family, yet SNP genotyping revealed a 1.2Mb copy-neutral region of homozygosity covering RBCK1. RNA-Seq confirmed aberrant splicing of RBCK1 transcripts, resulting in truncated protein products. Conclusions: While the exact mechanism by which these mutations cause disease is unknown, our study represents an example of how the combined use of whole-genome DNA and RNA sequencing can identify a disease-predisposing gene for a novel and extremely rare Mendelian disease

Limits to Poisson's ratio in isotropic materials - general result for arbitrary deformation

The lower bound usually cited for Poisson's ratio {\nu} is -1, derived from the relationship between {\nu} and the bulk and shear moduli. From consideration of the longitudinal and biaxial moduli, we recently determined that the lower bound on {\nu} for isotropic materials is actually 1/5, a value also consistent with experimental measurements on real materials. Herein we generalize this result, first by analyzing expressions for {\nu} in terms of six common elastic constants, and then by considering arbitrary strains. The results corroborate the prior finding that 1/5 <= {\nu} for linear elasticity to be applicable.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Aortic valve replacement in a young patient with essential thrombocytosis

Essential Thrombocythcythaemia (ET) is an uncommon type of myeloproliferative disorder, characterised by both thrombotic and haemorrhagic diathesis. No clear guidelines exist for the pre- and post-operative management of patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the haematological and surgical literature. This condition has profound implications in patients undergoing cardiac surgery with the use of cardiopulmonary bypass, where heparin is used for anti-coagulation. This dilemma is further compounded in the setting of a young patient undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR), where insertion of a mechanical prosthesis would be the procedure of choice. This would require life-long anticoagulation with warfarin which can predispose these patients to catastrophic bleeding. Using a tissue valve will subject the patient to multiple redo operations in the patient's lifetime. We report a young patient with ET requiring AVR and discuss the dilemmas surrounding the choice of prosthesis in this patient

Automata for true concurrency properties

We present an automata-theoretic framework for the model checking of true concurrency properties. These are specified in a fixpoint logic, corresponding to history-preserving bisimilarity, capable of describing events in computations and their dependencies. The models of the logic are event structures or any formalism which can be given a causal semantics, like Petri nets. Given a formula and an event structure satisfying suitable regularity conditions we show how to construct a parity tree automaton whose language is non-empty if and only if the event structure satisfies the formula. The automaton, due to the nature of event structure models, is usually infinite. We discuss how it can be quotiented to an equivalent finite automaton, where emptiness can be checked effectively. In order to show the applicability of the approach, we discuss how it instantiates to finite safe Petri nets. As a proof of concept we provide a model checking tool implementing the technique

Microscale distribution patterns of terrestrial bryophytes in a subalpine forest: the use of logistic regression as an interpretive tool

This study investigated microhabitat relationships of terrestrial bryophytes in a subalpine forest of coastal British Columbia. Substratum affinities were characterized for dominant bryophytes. Logistic regression analysis was used to gain insight into the ecological determinants of fine scale (0.1 m2) bryophyte distribution by examining the predictive relationship between bryophyte species occurrence and localized environmental conditions, as well as the coverage of other bryophytes. The predictive relationships were compared to evaluate the relative importance of environmental factors versus interspecific interactions in structuring bryophyte communities. The results indicate that bryophytes show unique responses in their relationships to environmental conditions and other bryophytes. Positive feedback appears to be an important process among terrestrial bryophytes in subalpine forests

"It's what midwifery is all about": Western Australian midwives' experiences of being 'with woman' during labour and birth in the known midwife model

Background: The phenomenon of being 'with woman' is fundamental to midwifery as it underpins its philosophy, relationships and practices. There is an identified gap in knowledge around the 'with woman' phenomenon from the perspective of midwives providing care in a variety of contexts. As such, the aim of this study was to explore the experiences of being 'with woman' during labour and birth from the perspective of midwives' working in a model where care is provided by a known midwife. Methods: A descriptive phenomenological design was employed with ten midwives working in a 'known midwife' model who described their experiences of being 'with woman' during labour and birth. The method was informed by Husserlian philosophy which seeks to explore the same phenomenon through rich descriptions by individuals revealing commonalities of the experience. Results: Five themes emerged 1) Building relationships; 2) Woman centred care; 3) Impact on the midwife; 4) Impact on the woman; and 5) Challenges in the Known Midwife model. Midwives emphasised the importance of trusting relationships while being 'with woman', confirming that this relationship extends beyond the woman - midwife relationship to include the woman's support people and family. Being 'with woman' during labour and birth in the context of the relationship facilitates woman-centred care. Being 'with woman' influences midwives, and, it is noted, the women that midwives are working with. Finally, challenges that impact being 'with woman' in the known midwife model are shared by midwives. Conclusions: Findings offer valuable insight into midwives' experiences of being 'with woman' in the context of models that provide care by a known midwife. In this model, the trusting relationship is the conduit for being 'with woman' which influences the midwife, the profession of midwifery, as well as women and their families. Descriptions of challenges to being 'with woman' provide opportunities for professional development and service review. Rich descriptions from the unique voice of midwives, provided insight into the applied practices of being 'with woman' in a known midwife model which adds important knowledge concerning a phenomenon so deeply embedded in the philosophy and practices of the profession of midwifery

On plexus representation of dissimilarities

Correspondence analysis has found widespread application in analysing vegetation gradients. However, it is not clear how it is robust to situations where structures other than a simple gradient exist. The introduction of instrumental variables in canonical correspondence analysis does not avoid these difficulties. In this paper I propose to examine some simple methods based on the notion of the plexus (sensu McIntosh) where graphs or networks are used to display some of the structure of the data so that an informed choice of models is possible. I showthat two different classes of plexus model are available. These classes are distinguished by the use in one case of a global Euclidean model to obtain well-separated pair decomposition (WSPD) of a set of points which implicitly involves all dissimilarities, while in the other a Riemannian view is taken and emphasis is placed locally, i.e., on small dissimilarities. I showan example of each of these classes applied to vegetation data