Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection

Impact of baseline coronary flow and its distribution on Fractional Flow Reserve prediction

Model‐based prediction of fractional flow reserve (FFR) in the context of stable coronary artery disease (CAD) diagnosis requires a number of modelling assumptions. One of these assumptions is the definition of a baseline coronary flow, ie, total coronary flow at rest prior to the administration of drugs needed to perform invasive measurements. Here we explore the impact of several methods available in the literature to estimate and distribute baseline coronary flow on FFR predictions obtained with a reduced‐order model. We consider 63 patients with suspected stable CAD, for a total of 105 invasive FFR measurements. First, we improve a reduced‐order model with respect to previous results and validate its performance versus results obtained with a 3D model. Next, we assess the impact of a wide range of methods to impose and distribute baseline coronary flow on FFR prediction, which proved to have a significant impact on diagnostic performance. However, none of the proposed methods resulted in a significant improvement of prediction error standard deviation. Finally, we show that intrinsic uncertainties related to stenosis geometry and the effect of hyperemic inducing drugs have to be addressed in order to improve FFR prediction accuracy

Machine learning augmented reduced-order models for FFR-prediction

Computational predictions in cardiovascular medicine have largely relied on explicit models derived from physical and physiological principles. Recently, the application of artificial intelligence in cardiovascular medicine has grown substantially. However, successful application of purely data-driven methods requires a sufficiently large and rich dataset. An alternative to purely data-driven methods is to incorporate prior physics-based knowledge into the learning process to reduce the amount and quality of data necessary for a performant model. We analyzed the benefit of this alternative for prediction of pressure and flow in pathological coronary arteries. We trained fully-connected feed forward neural networks (NN) to predict pressure losses in coronary arteries. The training and test data were obtained by solving the incompressible Navier–Stokes () equations. The coronary flow and various geometrical data were used as inputs to train a purely data-driven NN. We investigated two methods for incorporation of prior physics-based knowledge from a reduced-order model () into NNs that predicted pressure losses across stenotic and healthy coronary segments. First, we trained NNs to predict the discrepancy between the and pressure loss. Second, we augmented the data by including the pressure loss prediction as an input feature to a NN that predicted pressure. Both approaches for incorporation of prior knowledge from the significantly improved prediction of pressure losses across healthy and stenotic segments relative to the purely data-driven approach, especially for lower amounts of data. The incorporation of NN predictions of coronary segment pressure losses in a coronary network model resulted in Fractional Flow Reserve (FFR) predictions with error standard deviation of 0.021 with respect to FFR. In comparison, the standard deviation of repeated FFR measurements is 0.018

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for computational FFR estimation in stable coronary artery disease

Purpose The main objectives of this study are to validate a reduced-order model for the estimation of the fractional flow reserve (FFR) index based on blood flow simulations that incorporate clinical imaging and patient-specific characteristics, and to assess the uncertainty of FFR predictions with respect to input data on a per patient basis. Methods We consider 13 patients with symptoms of stable coronary artery disease for which 24 invasive FFR measurements are available. We perform an extensive sensitivity analysis on the parameters related to the construction of a reduced-order (hybrid 1D–0D) model for FFR predictions. Next we define an optimal setting by comparing reduced-order model predictions with solutions based on the 3D incompressible Navier–Stokes equations. Finally, we characterize prediction uncertainty with respect to input data and identify the most influential inputs by means of sensitivity analysis. Results Agreement between FFR computed by the reduced-order model and by the full 3D model was satisfactory, with a bias (FFR3D−FFR1D−0DFFR3D−FFR1D−0D) of −0.03(±0.03)−0.03(±0.03) at the 24 measured locations. Moreover, the uncertainty related to the factor by which peripheral resistance is reduced from baseline to hyperemic conditions proved to be the most influential parameter for FFR predictions, whereas uncertainty in stenosis geometry had greater effect in cases with low FFR. Conclusion Model errors related to solving a simplified reduced-order model rather than a full 3D problem were small compared with uncertainty related to input data. Improved measurement of coronary blood flow has the potential to reduce uncertainty in computational FFR predictions significantly

Reduction of cardiac imaging tests during the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of Italy. Findings from the IAEA Non-invasive Cardiology Protocol Survey on COVID-19 (INCAPS COVID)

Background: In early 2020, COVID-19 massively hit Italy, earlier and harder than any other European country. This caused a series of strict containment measures, aimed at blocking the spread of the pandemic. Healthcare delivery was also affected when resources were diverted towards care of COVID-19 patients, including intensive care wards. Aim of the study: The aim is assessing the impact of COVID-19 on cardiac imaging in Italy, compare to the Rest of Europe (RoE) and the World (RoW). Methods: A global survey was conducted in May–June 2020 worldwide, through a questionnaire distributed online. The survey covered three periods: March and April 2020, and March 2019. Data from 52 Italian centres, a subset of the 909 participating centres from 108 countries, were analyzed. Results: In Italy, volumes decreased by 67% in March 2020, compared to March 2019, as opposed to a significantly lower decrease (p &lt; 0.001) in RoE and RoW (41% and 40%, respectively). A further decrease from March 2020 to April 2020 summed up to 76% for the North, 77% for the Centre and 86% for the South. When compared to the RoE and RoW, this further decrease from March 2020 to April 2020 in Italy was significantly less (p = 0.005), most likely reflecting the earlier effects of the containment measures in Italy, taken earlier than anywhere else in the West. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic massively hit Italy and caused a disruption of healthcare services, including cardiac imaging studies. This raises concern about the medium- and long-term consequences for the high number of patients who were denied timely diagnoses and the subsequent lifesaving therapies and procedures

Impact of COVID-19 on Diagnostic Cardiac Procedural Volume in Oceania: The IAEA Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocol Survey on COVID-19 (INCAPS COVID)

Objectives: The INCAPS COVID Oceania study aimed to assess the impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiac procedure volume provided in the Oceania region. Methods: A retrospective survey was performed comparing procedure volumes within March 2019 (pre-COVID-19) with April 2020 (during first wave of COVID-19 pandemic). Sixty-three (63) health care facilities within Oceania that perform cardiac diagnostic procedures were surveyed, including a mixture of metropolitan and regional, hospital and outpatient, public and private sites, and 846 facilities outside of Oceania. The percentage change in procedure volume was measured between March 2019 and April 2020, compared by test type and by facility. Results: In Oceania, the total cardiac diagnostic procedure volume was reduced by 52.2% from March 2019 to April 2020, compared to a reduction of 75.9% seen in the rest of the world (p&lt;0.001). Within Oceania sites, this reduction varied significantly between procedure types, but not between types of health care facility. All procedure types (other than stress cardiac magnetic resonance [CMR] and positron emission tomography [PET]) saw significant reductions in volume over this time period (p&lt;0.001). In Oceania, transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) decreased by 51.6%, transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) by 74.0%, and stress tests by 65% overall, which was more pronounced for stress electrocardiograph (ECG) (81.8%) and stress echocardiography (76.7%) compared to stress single-photon emission computerised tomography (SPECT) (44.3%). Invasive coronary angiography decreased by 36.7% in Oceania. Conclusion: A significant reduction in cardiac diagnostic procedure volume was seen across all facility types in Oceania and was likely a function of recommendations from cardiac societies and directives from government to minimise spread of COVID-19 amongst patients and staff. Longer term evaluation is important to assess for negative patient outcomes which may relate to deferral of usual models of care within cardiology

International Impact of COVID-19 on the Diagnosis of Heart Disease

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has adversely affected diagnosis and treatment of noncommunicable diseases. Its effects on delivery of diagnostic care for cardiovascular disease, which remains the leading cause of death worldwide, have not been quantified. Objectives: The study sought to assess COVID-19's impact on global cardiovascular diagnostic procedural volumes and safety practices. Methods: The International Atomic Energy Agency conducted a worldwide survey assessing alterations in cardiovascular procedure volumes and safety practices resulting from COVID-19. Noninvasive and invasive cardiac testing volumes were obtained from participating sites for March and April 2020 and compared with those from March 2019. Availability of personal protective equipment and pandemic-related testing practice changes were ascertained. Results: Surveys were submitted from 909 inpatient and outpatient centers performing cardiac diagnostic procedures, in 108 countries. Procedure volumes decreased 42% from March 2019 to March 2020, and 64% from March 2019 to April 2020. Transthoracic echocardiography decreased by 59%, transesophageal echocardiography 76%, and stress tests 78%, which varied between stress modalities. Coronary angiography (invasive or computed tomography) decreased 55% (p &lt; 0.001 for each procedure). In multivariable regression, significantly greater reduction in procedures occurred for centers in countries with lower gross domestic product. Location in a low-income and lower–middle-income country was associated with an additional 22% reduction in cardiac procedures and less availability of personal protective equipment and telehealth. Conclusions: COVID-19 was associated with a significant and abrupt reduction in cardiovascular diagnostic testing across the globe, especially affecting the world's economically challenged. Further study of cardiovascular outcomes and COVID-19–related changes in care delivery is warranted