The Effects of Extreme Weather Disasters in the European Food Availability

Over the last 20 years, it was reported an increase in worldwide extreme weather disasters (EWD), such as droughts (+29%), floods (+134%), and extreme temperature (+232%) like heatwaves. While the mortality rate of these events decreased, EWD are associated with a significant increase in economic damage and in the number of people affected (> 3 billion). The EWD can significantly impact agriculture by exacerbating fluctuations in crop yields and, consequently, in food availability and food prices. Thus, by means of the interconnections of the world food system, EWD have potential to threaten local to global food security. The challenges for agriculture are not only linked to changes in the long-term average climate, but particularly to EWD, which are usually more impactful and generally more uncertain. However, in the occasion of EWD occurrence, national and international disaster loss databases typically report populations affected and damage to human infrastructure, but rarely report damage or losses in the agriculture sector. As a result, agricultural impacts associated with these events are not well quantified across larger spatial scales. In particular, it remains insufficiently understood what are the trends in crop losses, and what are the implications that EWD may represent to food trade. The European Union (EU) was chosen as a case study, as it is one of the largest global exporter and importer of agri-food products, with its food system deeply linked with other regions. Here, disaster records were used as a metric for extreme weather event impact analysis. Records of droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves (EM-DAT) were combined with observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) to evaluate disasters crop responses in Europe and in its Non-EU food suppliers. A superposed epoch analysis (SEA) a time series statistical method used in data analysis was used to estimate the impact of EWD on the average production, yield, and harvested area of selected crops. The larger implications of disaster impacts in Non-EU food suppliers to the EU food imports, were explored based on the import share per supplier (EUROSTAT). At the EU level, in addition to the SEA to estimate crop impacts, the trend of production anomalies was evaluated over time, per disaster type and per bioclimatic region. The research carried out allows to assess the effects of EWD in the EU food availability, while expanding the analysis to different crops and geographical regions. In particular, the exposure of the EU food import dependency to EWD was evaluated, and also the degree of loss in the EU crop production resulting from the occurrence of such events. Despite a diversified external market, the EWD impacts on crops grown in Non-EU suppliers represent a substantial and negative exposure to EU food imports. Production losses of soybeans, tropical fruits, and cocoa associated to droughts and heatwaves but also floods, lead to an overall decline, up to 16%, in the EU import-weighted share of each crop. At the EU level, the severity of aggregated heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years. In particular, in every new year with a drought, the EU cereal production losses increase by 3%. The frequency of droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves significantly increased over time. Major losses are found for cereals, but also vegetables and oil crops in the Eastern countries, while smaller losses are estimated in Southern but also Central European countries. Even though using a weather disaster record for crop impact analyses has limitations, it offers a unique and standardized metric indicating that, at the EU level, climate change is already driving increasing crop losses in observational records. Understanding the effects of EWD on crop responses in the past and present climate contributes to the discussion of strategies and priorities in view of improving food systems resilience, including on the potential role of trade policies to support adaptation actions

How much extreme weather events have affected European power generation in the past 30 years?

ABSTRACT: Power generation impacts due to extreme weather events (EWE), as floods, storms, cold waves, droughts, and heatwaves, are not well understood across larger spatial scales, especially in view of climate change. These events can se-verely affect our energy supply by interrupting the energy generation or its transmission, by interfering with fuel production and distribution, or by causing fuel and electricity shortages, potentially leading to price spikes.N/

Usos de água concorrentes para a agricultura e geração de eletricidade: quantificação dos impactos das alterações climáticas no setor eletroprodutor Português [Comunicação oral]

RESUMO: Neste webinar apresentamos os resultados de um estudo do LNEG e do CENSE – NOVA para 2050 focando o impacto combinado das alterações climáticas segundo o Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 e a variação expectável na utilização de água para agricultura tanto em Portugal como em Espanha. A análise estuda as bacias do Douro e Tejo e o impacto que se poderá sentir no sistema eletroprodutor nacional como um todo.N/

Production of cynaropicrin extracts from Cynara cardunculus leaves and its use for development of wound dressing films

Natural compounds derived from plants are presently an alternative for the discovery of new effective drugs, from which new products may be developed, potentially overcoming the current limitations of synthetic compounds for use in pharma and biomedical applications. This thesis concerns the design and production of cynaropicrin enriched extracts from leaves of Cynara cardunculus, and their application in a chitosan matrix as wound dressing for antiinflammatory drug delivery. The design and production of cynaropicrin enriched extracts was performed considering the use of environmentally friendly extraction methodologies and biocompatible solvents. Selection of solvent and the extraction methodology took into consideration their effect upon cynaropicrin extraction yield, as well as energy expenditure and other operating costs. Among conventional and nonconventional extraction methodologies, ultrasound assisted extraction combined with ethanol presented the best results regarding the cynaropicrin extraction yield (55.00 mg/g Dry Weight) and energy expenditure (0.027 kWh/gcynaropicrin). Applied for the first time for cynaropicrin extraction from C. cardunculus leaves, ultrasound assisted extraction was firstly optimized regarding the pulse effect on cynaropicrin extraction yield. Comparatively to continuous mode, pulse mode (duty cycle of 25%) presented a reduction on energy consumption/gcynaropicrin, as well as a better temperature control being selected and further optimized with a response surface methodology, using the Box-Behnken design model. The results obtained confirm the applicability of the response surface methodology for optimization of cynaropicrin extraction by pulsed ultrasound assisted extraction, from C. cardunculus. Aiming the increase of the extract biological potential, fractionation of the optimized extract was performed by membrane processes. A Duramem® 200 membrane was selected for the retention of cynaropicrin while low molecular weight compounds, such as glucose and fructose, were removed by diananofiltration (after 5 diavolumes). As a result of the diananofiltration process, a global removal of 93.0% of glucose and 95.6% of fructose was obtained. An increase of the extract biological potential was achieved, when tested with a Bj5-ta human normal fibroblast cell line. The integrated process for production of cynaropicrin enriched extracts was economically assessed, leading to a pay-back period of 4.58 years, achieved for a production of 520 kg/ of extract. Incorporation of the cynaropicrin enriched extract in chitosan films, was performed by the solvent evaporation method, with different concentrations of the extract. It was shown that the extract has a negative effect on the film tensile strength and on the fluid absorption capacity being these two effects strongly influenced by the amount of extract loaded in the chitosan films. With no cytotoxic effect on Bj5-ta cell line observed, for films with an extract concentration lower to 5%, a positive effect on skin inflammation was achieved. An 86% reduction on IL-6 cytokine levels production after exposure to chitosan with 5% extract, by indirect contact, was obtained being this effect positively correlated to the cynaropicrin content in the extract loaded into the chitosan films. xii This work shows that cynaropicrin enriched extracts from C. cardunculus leaves, can be produced in a sustainable and environmentally friendly way, aiming the possibility to be scaled up for industrial applications. Besides that, its potential use as chronic skin wound dressing, allied to chitosan, is a promising approach overcoming the application of synthetic drugs, and/or potentiate their application spectrum on what regards to anti-inflammatory action

How much extreme weather events have affected European power generation in the past three decades?

ABSTRACT: Extreme weather events (EWE) can affect energy supply, particularly when energy systems are significantly reliant on renewable energy sources, highly vulnerable to climate and weather conditions. We combine observational energy data from EUROSTAT with records of EWE, between 1990 and 2019, to evaluate European power plants capacity factors (CF) responses to those events. Using a statistical compositing analysis, we show that years with floods and storms increased annual European hydropower CF by 7 and 5.8%, respectively, compared to non-EWE years, while CF of fossil power plants decreased (-2.8%). Similar behaviours are found for Central and Mediterranean countries. From 1993 to 2004 to 2005-2016 European hydropower tripled during floods and quintupled during storms suggesting that the events are becoming more severe or there is more efficient water use. On the contrary, from 1993 to 2016, in every year with droughts/heatwaves the European hydropower decreased (-6.5%), with a subsequent increase of fossil CF (2.3%). Such behaviour is also observed across Central and Eastern Europe. Cold waves negatively affected solar photovoltaic output at the European level and Central Europe (-5%). Vulnerability of wind power plants to floods is increasing: from 1993 to 2004 to 2005-2016 there is 3-fold decrease in the European wind CF; from one flood year to the following, wind CF decreases in Central (- 1.9%yr- 1) and Eastern Europe (- 3.7%yr- 1). During droughts/heatwaves, wind CF increases in Central Europe (2%yr- 1), but decreases in Mediterranean (- 3%yr- 1). Shifting to renewable energy sources is key to decarbonization. It's crucial understanding the historical impacts of EWE in the power system towards its resilience and stability.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Competing water uses between agriculture and energy: Quantifying future climate change impacts for the Portuguese power sector

ABSTRACT: Climate change may increase water needs for irrigation in southern Europe competing with other water uses, such as hydropower, which may likely be impacted by lower precipitation. Climate change will also potentially affect the variability and availability of other renewable energy resources (solar and wind) and electricity consumption patterns. This work quantifies the effect of competition for water use between irrigation and hydropower in the future 2050 Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector and under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change projections. It uses the power system eTIMES_PT model to assess the combined effects of climate change on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sectorconsidering changes in irrigation, hydropower, wind and solar PV availability. eTIMES_PT is a linear optimisation model that satisfies electricity demand at minimal total power system cost. Results show that, by 2050, climate change can lead to an increase in annual irrigation water needs up to 12% in Tagus and 19% in Douro watersheds (from 2005 values), with substantially higher values for spring (up to 84%). Combining these increased water needs with the expected reduction in river runoff can lead to a decline in summer and spring hydropower capacity factors from half to three times below current values. By 2050, concurrent water uses under climate change can reduce hydropower generation by 26–56% less than historically observed, mainly in summer and spring. Higher solar PV, complemented with batteries’ electricity storage, can offset the lower hydropower availability, but this will lead to higher electricity prices. Adequate transboundary water management agreements and reducing water losses in irrigation systems will play a key role in mitigating climate impacts in both agriculture and power sector.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts

Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe

Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood - especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to -23%; +2% to -17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from -2.2% (1964-1990) to -7.3% (1991-2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr-1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.publishersversionpublishe

Utilização de opções reais na avaliação de startups

A avaliação de empresas que se encontram na sua fase inicial é de extrema dificuldade para os investidores devido à fraca disponibilidade de dados financeiros. Nestas situações, o método de avaliação mais utilizado que consiste em estimar de forma relativamente rígida os free cash flows (FCF), taxas de crescimento e de desconto, é muito propensa a problemas de assimetria de informação entre o empreendedor e o investidor. Muitas vezes o financiamento é feito em seed stages, ou seja, quando a empresa se encontra em períodos de investigação e desenvolvimento (I&D). Nestas fases existe uma grande possibilidade dos projetos não serem viáveis, gerando perdas inteiras do capital dos investidores. O método de avaliação por opções utilizado neste trabalho pretende ultrapassar estas limitações. Foi construído de forma a oferecer a possibilidade de comparar as seguintes hipóteses: financiar imediatamente a totalidade do investimento, adquirir uma opção de compra (correspondente à capitalização posterior do investimento) com um horizonte temporal de 6 meses, ou não investir por completo. É utilizado o método integrado de avaliação que se distingue por permitir dividir o risco em dois tipos - público e privado – e posteriormente avaliá-los. O primeiro é avaliado através de árvores binomiais, numa ótica neutral ao risco. O risco privado, por outro lado, é inerente ao próprio negócio e requer a utilização de métodos de estimação subjetivos.The valuation of companies during their initial stage is extremely difficult for investors due to the lack of availability of financial data. In these situations, the most used valuation method, which consists in estimating in a relatively rigid way the free cash flows (FCF), growth and discount rates, is very prone to information asymmetry problems between the investor and the entrepreneur. In many cases, the investment is done in seed stages, when the company is performing investigation and development. At this stage, there is a big possibility that the projects are not viable, generating full capital loss for the investors. The option valuation model used in this work, aims to solve this problems. It was built to offer the possibility of comparing the following hypothesis: immediately financing the total investment, acquiring a call option (corresponding to the following capitalization on the investment) with a six month expiration time, or not investing at all. The valuation method used is called “integrated method of valuation” and distinguishes from the other models by allowing risk to be divided into two types – public and private – and then evaluating them separately. The first is valued with risk neutral binomial trees. The private risk, on the other hand, is inherent to the business itself and requires the utilization of subjective estimation methods

The network as an educational interface: revisiting core concepts

Integrado em investigação do Mestrado em Pedagogia do Elearning, curso do Departamento de Educação e Ensino a Distância da Universidade Aberta, e no âmbito de projeto da UID4372-LE@D, Laboratório de Educação a Distância e Elearning (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior).É indiscutível o impacto que as novas tecnologias têm na forma como diariamente interagimos, efetuamos partilhas, trabalhamos e aprendemos. As redes sociais assumem aqui uma posição proeminente pela forma como se interage e se constroem comunidades virtuais de partilha, com interesses e objetivos comuns. O seu crescimento é exponencial, diferindo na forma como são utilizadas e se posicionam, indo do entretenimento ao desenvolvimento de ambientes pessoais de aprendizagem, consoante o propósito e a presença social que cada identidade digital define. Com este texto pretende-se apresentar uma reflexão direcionada para a compreensão dos fenômenos que estão subjacentes a estes espaços de aprendizagem, na sua relação com a informação, os objetos de aprendizagem e o conhecimento. Para o efeito, revisitam-se conceitos fundamentais, que se articulam com o de Ambientes Pessoais de Aprendizagem, nomeadamente os conceitos de sociedade em rede, cibercultura, abertura, obsolescência do conhecimento e conhecimento conectivo. Emerge, da nossa reflexão, que estamos perante uma rede que se posiciona como uma interface educativa, portadora de conhecimento distribuído pelos nós e pelos fluxos proporcionados pela conexão que cada indivíduo é capaz de concretizar. Desta forma, este ambiente de aprendizagem a distância permite, como nunca, o acesso à informação, ao conhecimento e aos outros. Consumidores e reprodutores podem tornar-se também produtores, emergindo as Redes Sociais que se estabelecem na Internet como um terreno fértil que importa considerar para nos espaços e comunidades digitais de aprendizagem.There is no doubt about the impact that the new technologies have on the way we daily interact, share, work and learn. The social networks assume a prominent position as they affect the way we interact and build virtual communities of sharing, with common interests and aims. Their growth is exponential, differing in the way they are used, ranging from the entertainment to the development of the personal learning environments, depending on the purpose and the social presence that each digital identity defines. In this text, we aim at reflecting on the understanding of the phenomena underlying these spaces of learning, namely the Personal Learning Environments, in their relationship with information, learning objects and knowledge. Moreover, we will revisit the core concepts of networked society, cyberculture, openness, obsolescence of knowledge, and the connectivism theory. From our reflection emerges a network as an educational interface, conveying knowledge distributed by the nodes and by the flows provided by the connection that each individual is able to achieve. Thus, this distance learning environment allows, as never before, to access, for instance, to information or knowledge. Consumers and reproducers can also become producers in social networks, on the Internet, fertile grounds that must be considered for digital learning spaces and communities.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio