250 research outputs found

    Incorporating Prior Knowledge of Latent Group Structure in Panel Data Models

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    The assumption of group heterogeneity has become popular in panel data models. We develop a constrained Bayesian grouped estimator that exploits researchers' prior beliefs on groups in a form of pairwise constraints, indicating whether a pair of units is likely to belong to a same group or different groups. We propose a prior to incorporate the pairwise constraints with varying degrees of confidence. The whole framework is built on the nonparametric Bayesian method, which implicitly specifies a distribution over the group partitions, and so the posterior analysis takes the uncertainty of the latent group structure into account. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that adding prior knowledge yields more accurate estimates of coefficient and scores predictive gains over alternative estimators. We apply our method to two empirical applications. In a first application to forecasting U.S. CPI inflation, we illustrate that prior knowledge of groups improves density forecasts when the data is not entirely informative. A second application revisits the relationship between a country's income and its democratic transition; we identify heterogeneous income effects on democracy with five distinct groups over ninety countries

    Exploring the impact of demand and supply-side interventions on energy decarbonization of freight transportation: a research based on G20 nations

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    Through quantitative modeling, the study established a dynamic supply and demand system from freight demand, renewable energy production, alternative new energy, renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions to assess the impact of demand-side and supply-side changes on energy decarbonization. The results indicate that adjusting the freight volumes of railway and aviation, renewable energy electricity supply, and the use of alternative new energy sources have varying degrees of impact on decarbonization in transportation. Through interventions on the demand side of freight volumes, CO2 emissions from transportation decrease to levels below those before the intervention-induced fluctuations, while consumption of renewable energy increases to levels above those before the adjustment

    Path Planning for Autonomous Vehicle in Off-Road Scenario

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    The road topography information, such as bank angle and road slope, can significantly affect the trajectory tracking performance of the autonomous vehicle, so this information needs to be considered in the trajectory planning and tracking control for off-road autonomous vehicle. In this chapter, a two-level real-time dynamically integrated spatiotemporal-based trajectory planning and control method for off-road autonomous vehicle is proposed. In the upper-level trajectory planner, the most suitable time-parameterised trajectory with the minimum values of road slope and bank angle can be selected from a set of candidate trajectories. In the lower-level trajectory tracking controller, the sliding-mode control (SMC) technique is applied to control the vehicle and achieve the desired trajectory. Finally, simulation results are presented to verify the proposed integrated trajectory planning and control method and prove that the proposed integrated method has better overall tracking control and dynamics control performance than the conventional method both in the highway scenario and off-road scenario. Furthermore, the four-wheel-independent-steering (4WIS) and four-wheel-independent-driving (4WID) vehicle shows better tracking control performance than vehicle based on two-wheel model

    Role of Acupuncture in the Treatment of Drug Addiction

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    This review systematically assessed the clinical evidence for and against acupuncture as a treatment for drug addiction. The existing scientific rationale and possible mechanisms for the effectiveness of acupuncture on drug addiction were also evaluated. We used computerized literature searches in English and Chinese and examined texts written before these computerized databases existed. We also used search terms of treatment and neurobiology for drug abuse and dependence. Acupuncture showed evidence for relevant neurobiological mechanisms in the treatment of drug addiction. Although positive findings regarding the use of acupuncture to treat drug dependence have been reported by many clinical studies, the data do not allow us to make conclusions that acupuncture was an effective treatment for drug addiction, given that many studies reviewed here were hampered by small numbers of patients, insufficient reporting of randomization and allocation concealment methods, and strength of the inference. However, considering the potential of acupuncture demonstrated in the included studies, further rigorous randomized controlled trials with long follow-up are warranted

    On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates

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    We propose methods for constructing regularized mixtures of density forecasts. We explore a variety of objectives and regularization penalties, and we use them in a substantive exploration of Eurozone inflation and real interest rate density forecasts. All individual inflation forecasters (even the ex post best forecaster) are outperformed by our regularized mixtures. From the Great Recession onward, the optimal regularization tends to move density forecasts' probability mass from the centers to the tails, correcting for overconfidence

    Bayesian Estimation of Panel Models under Potentially Sparse Heterogeneity

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    We incorporate a version of a spike and slab prior, comprising a pointmass at zero ("spike") and a Normal distribution around zero ("slab") into a dynamic panel data framework to model coefficient heterogeneity. In addition to homogeneity and full heterogeneity, our specification can also capture sparse heterogeneity, that is, there is a core group of units that share common parameters and a set of deviators with idiosyncratic parameters. We fit a model with unobserved components to income data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find evidence for sparse heterogeneity for balanced panels composed of individuals with long employment histories

    Dynamically integrated spatiotemporal-based trajectory planning and control for autonomous vehicles

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    In the literature, the intensive research effort has been made on the trajectory planning for autonomous vehicles, while the integration of the trajectory planner with the trajectory controller is less focused. This study proposes the spatiotemporal-based trajectory planner and controller by a two-level dynamically integrated structure. In the upper level, the best trajectory is selected among a group of candidate time-parameterised trajectories, while the target vehicle ending position and velocity can be satisfied. Then the planned trajectory is evaluated by checking the feasibility when the actual vehicle dynamic motion constraints are considered. After that, the lower level trajectory controller based on the vehicle dynamics model will control the vehicle to follow the desired trajectory. Numerical simulations are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, where the scenario of an intersection and the scenario of overtaking are applied to show that the proposed trajectory controller can successfully achieve the control targets. In addition, compared with the potential field method, the proposed method based on the four-wheel independent steering and four-wheel independent driving electric vehicle shows great advantages in guaranteeing the vehicle handling and stability
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