Geo-social gradients in predicted COVID-19 prevalence in Great Britain: results from 1 960 242 users of the COVID-19 Symptoms Study app

Understanding the geographical distribution of COVID-19 through the general population is key to the provision of adequate healthcare services. Using self-reported data from 1 960 242 unique users in Great Britain (GB) of the COVID-19 Symptom Study app, we estimated that, concurrent to the GB government sanctioning lockdown, COVID-19 was distributed across GB, with evidence of ’urban hotspots’. We found a geo-social gradient associated with predicted disease prevalence suggesting urban areas and areas of higher deprivation are most affected. Our results demonstrate use of self-reported symptoms data to provide focus on geographical areas with identified risk factors

Geo-social gradients in predicted COVID-19 prevalence in Great Britain: results from 1 960 242 users of the COVID-19 Symptoms Study app

Understanding the geographical distribution of COVID-19 through the general population is key to the provision of adequate healthcare services. Using self-reported data from 1 960 242 unique users in Great Britain (GB) of the COVID-19 Symptom Study app, we estimated that, concurrent to the GB government sanctioning lockdown, COVID-19 was distributed across GB, with evidence of ’urban hotspots’. We found a geo-social gradient associated with predicted disease prevalence suggesting urban areas and areas of higher deprivation are most affected. Our results demonstrate use of self-reported symptoms data to provide focus on geographical areas with identified risk factors

Probable delirium is a presenting symptom of COVID-19 in frail, older adults: a cohort study of 322 hospitalised and 535 community-based older adults

BACKGROUND: Frailty, increased vulnerability to physiological stressors, is associated with adverse outcomes. COVID-19 exhibits a more severe disease course in older, comorbid adults. Awareness of atypical presentations is critical to facilitate early identification. OBJECTIVE: To assess how frailty affects presenting COVID-19 symptoms in older adults. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of hospitalised older patients and self-report data for community-based older adults. SETTINGS: Admissions to St Thomas’ Hospital, London with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Community-based data for older adults using the COVID Symptom Study mobile application. SUBJECTS: Hospital cohort: patients aged 65 and over (n = 322); unscheduled hospital admission between 1 March 2020 and 5 May 2020; COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR of nasopharyngeal swab. Community-based cohort: participants aged 65 and over enrolled in the COVID Symptom Study (n = 535); reported test-positive for COVID-19 from 24 March (application launch) to 8 May 2020. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression analysis performed on age-matched samples from hospital and community-based cohorts to ascertain association of frailty with symptoms of confirmed COVID-19. RESULTS: Hospital cohort: significantly higher prevalence of probable delirium in the frail sample, with no difference in fever or cough. Community-based cohort: significantly higher prevalence of possible delirium in frailer, older adults and fatigue and shortness of breath. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study demonstrating higher prevalence of probable delirium as a COVID-19 symptom in older adults with frailty compared to other older adults. This emphasises need for systematic frailty assessment and screening for delirium in acutely ill older patients in hospital and community settings. Clinicians should suspect COVID-19 in frail adults with delirium

Symptom clusters in COVID-19: A potential clinical prediction tool from the COVID Symptom Study app

As no one symptom can predict disease severity or the need for dedicated medical support in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we asked whether documenting symptom time series over the first few days informs outcome. Unsupervised time series clustering over symptom presentation was performed on data collected from a training dataset of completed cases enlisted early from the COVID Symptom Study Smartphone application, yielding six distinct symptom presentations. Clustering was validated on an independent replication dataset between 1 and 28 May 2020. Using the first 5 days of symptom logging, the ROC-AUC (receiver operating characteristic - area under the curve) of need for respiratory support was 78.8%, substantially outperforming personal characteristics alone (ROC-AUC 69.5%). Such an approach could be used to monitor at-risk patients and predict medical resource requirements days before they are required

Socioeconomic Status and the Gut Microbiome: A TwinsUK Cohort Study

Socioeconomic inequalities in health and mortality are well established, but the biological mechanisms underlying these associations are less understood. In parallel, the gut microbiome is emerging as a potentially important determinant of human health, but little is known about its broader environmental and social determinants. We test the association between gut microbiota composition and individual- and area-level socioeconomic factors in a well-characterized twin cohort. In this study, 1672 healthy volunteers from twin registry TwinsUK had data available for at least one socioeconomic measure, existing fecal 16S rRNA microbiota data, and all considered co-variables. Associations with socioeconomic status (SES) were robust to adjustment for known health correlates of the microbiome; conversely, these health-microbiome associations partially attenuated with adjustment for SES. Twins discordant for IMD (Index of Multiple Deprivation) were shown to significantly differ by measures of compositional dissimilarity, with suggestion the greater the difference in twin pair IMD, the greater the dissimilarity of their microbiota. Future research should explore how SES might influence the composition of the gut microbiota and its potential role as a mediator of differences associated with SES

An association between chronic widespread pain and the gut microbiome

OBJECTIVES: Chronic widespread musculoskeletal pain (CWP) is a characteristic symptom of fibromyalgia, which has been shown to be associated with an altered gut microbiome. Microbiome studies to date have not examined the milder CWP phenotype specifically nor have they explored the role of raised BMI. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the microbiome is abnormal in CWP. METHODS: CWP was assessed using a standardized screening questionnaire in female volunteers from the TwinsUK cohort including 113 CWP cases and 1623 controls. The stool microbiome was characterized using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing and amplicon sequence variants, and associations with CWP examined using linear mixed-effects models adjusting for BMI, age, diet, family relatedness and technical factors. RESULTS: Alpha diversity was significantly lower in CWP cases than controls (Mann–Whitney test, P-values 2.3e-04 and 1.2e-02, for Shannon and Simpson indices respectively). The species Coprococcus comes was significantly depleted in CWP cases (P(adj) = 3.04e-03). A genome-wide association study (GWAS) performed for C. comes in TwinsUK followed by meta-analysis with three Dutch cohorts (total n = 3521) resulted in nine suggestive regions, with the most convincing on chromosome 4 near the TRAM1L1 gene (rs76957229, P = 7.4e-8). A Mendelian randomization study based on the results of the GWAS did not support a causal role for C. comes on the development of CWP. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated reduced diversity in the microbiome in CWP, indicating an involvement of the gut microbiota in CWP; prospectively the microbiome may offer therapeutic opportunities for this condition

Individual factors including age, BMI and heritable factors underlie temperature variation in sickness and in health: an observational, multi-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Ageing affects immunity, potentially altering fever response to infection. We assess effects of biological variables on basal temperature, and during COVID-19 infection, proposing an updated temperature threshold for older adults ≥65 years. METHODS: Participants were from four cohorts: 1089 unaffected adult TwinsUK volunteers; 520 adults with emergency admission to a London hospital with RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection; 757 adults with emergency admission to a Birmingham hospital with RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and 3972 adult community-based COVID Symptom Study participants self-reporting a positive RT-PCR test. Heritability was assessed using saturated and univariate ACE models; mixed-effect and multivariable linear regression examined associations between temperature, age, sex and BMI; multivariable logistic regression examined associations between fever (≥37.8°C) and age; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to identify temperature threshold for adults ≥ 65 years. RESULTS: Among unaffected volunteers, lower BMI (p=0.001), and increasing age (p<0.001) associated with lower basal temperature. Basal temperature showed a heritability of 47% 95% Confidence Interval 18-57%). In COVID-19+ participants, increasing age was associated with lower temperatures in Birmingham and community-based cohorts (p<0.001). For each additional year of age, participants were 1% less likely to demonstrate a fever ≥37.8°C (OR 0.99; p<0.001). Combining healthy and COVID-19+ participants, a temperature of 37.4°C in adults ≥65 years had similar sensitivity and specificity to 37.8°C in adults <65 years for discriminating infection. CONCLUSIONS: Ageing affects temperature in health and acute infection, with significant heritability, indicating genetic factors contribute to temperature regulation. Our observations suggest a lower threshold (37.4°C/97.3°F) for identifying fever in older adults ≥65 years

Cancer and Risk of COVID-19 Through a General Community Survey.

Individuals with cancer may be at high risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and adverse outcomes. However, evidence from large population-based studies examining whether cancer and cancer-related therapy exacerbates the risk of COVID-19 infection is still limited. Data were collected from the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application since March 29 through May 8, 2020. Among 23,266 participants with cancer and 1,784,293 without cancer, we documented 10,404 reports of a positive COVID-19 test. Compared with participants without cancer, those living with cancer had a 60% increased risk of a positive COVID-19 test. Among patients with cancer, current treatment with chemotherapy or immunotherapy was associated with a 2.2-fold increased risk of a positive test. The association between cancer and COVID-19 infection was stronger among participants >65 years and males. Future studies are needed to identify subgroups by tumor types and treatment regimens who are particularly at risk for COVID-19 infection and adverse outcomes