The Stroke RiskometerTM App: Validation of a data collection tool and stroke risk predictor

Background: The greatest potential to reduce the burden of stroke is by primary prevention of first-ever stroke, which constitutes three quarters of all stroke. In addition to population-wide prevention strategies (the 'mass' approach), the 'high risk' approach aims to identify individuals at risk of stroke and to modify their risk factors, and risk, accordingly. Current methods of assessing and modifying stroke risk are difficult to access and implement by the general population, amongst whom most future strokes will arise. To help reduce the burden of stroke on individuals and the population a new app, the Stroke RiskometerTM, has been developed. We aim to explore the validity of the app for predicting the risk of stroke compared with current best methods. Methods: 752 stroke outcomes from a sample of 9501 individuals across three countries (New Zealand, Russia and the Netherlands) were utilized to investigate the performance of a novel stroke risk prediction tool algorithm (Stroke RiskometerTM) compared with two established stroke risk score prediction algorithms (Framingham Stroke Risk Score [FSRS] and QStroke). We calculated the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUROC) with 95% confidence intervals, Harrels C-statistic and D-statistics for measure of discrimination, R2 statistics to indicate level of variability accounted for by each prediction algorithm, the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic for calibration, and the sensitivity and specificity of each algorithm. Results: The Stroke RiskometerTM performed well against the FSRS five-year AUROC for both males (FSRS=75·0% (95% CI 72·3%-77·6%), Stroke RiskometerTM=74·0(95% CI 71·3%-76·7%) and females [FSRS=70·3% (95% CI 67·9%-72·8%, Stroke RiskometerTM=71·5% (95% CI 69·0%-73·9%)], and better than QStroke [males - 59·7% (95% CI 57·3%-62·0%) and comparable to females=71·1% (95% CI 69·0%-73·1%)]. Discriminative ability of all algorithms was low (C-statistic ranging from 0·51-0·56, D-statistic ranging from 0·01-0·12). Hosmer-Lemeshow illustrated that all of the predicted risk scores were not well calibrated with the observed event data (P<0·006). Conclusions: The Stroke RiskometerTM is comparable in performance for stroke prediction with FSRS and QStroke. All three algorithms performed equally poorly in predicting stroke events. The Stroke RiskometerTM will be continually developed and validated to address the need to improve the current stroke risk scoring systems to more accurately predict stroke, particularly by identifying robust ethnic/race ethnicity group and country specific risk factors. International Journal of Strok

Publisher Correction: Sex-dimorphic genetic effects and novel loci for fasting glucose and insulin variability (Nature Communications, (2021), 12, 1, (24), 10.1038/s41467-020-19366-9)

The original version of this Article contained an error in Fig. 2, in which panels a and b were inadvertently swapped. This has now been corrected in the PDF and HTML versions of the Article

Genome-wide association identifies nine common variants associated with fasting proinsulin levels and provides new insights into the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE - Proinsulin is a precursor of mature insulin and C-peptide. Higher circulating proinsulin levels are associated with impaired b-cell function, raised glucose levels, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of the insulin processing pathway could provide new insights about T2D pathophysiology. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We have conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association tests of ;2.5 million genotyped or imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and fasting proinsulin levels in 10,701 nondiabetic adults of European ancestry, with follow-up of 23 loci in up to 16,378 individuals, using additive genetic models adjusted for age, sex, fasting insulin, and study-specific covariates. RESULTS - Nine SNPs at eight loci were associated with proinsulin levels (P < 5 × 10-8). Two loci (LARP6 and SGSM2) have not been previously related to metabolic traits, one (MADD) has been associated with fasting glucose, one (PCSK1) has been implicated in obesity, and four (TCF7L2, SLC30A8, VPS13C/ C2CD4A/B, and ARAP1, formerly CENTD2) increase T2D risk. The proinsulin-raising allele of ARAP1 was associated with a lower fasting glucose (P = 1.7 3 10-4), improved b-cell function (P = 1.1 × 10-5), and lower risk of T2D (odds ratio 0.88; P = 7.8 × 10-6). Notably, PCSK1 encodes the protein prohormone convertase 1/3, the first enzyme in the insulin processing pathway. A genotype score composed of the nine proinsulin-raising alleles was not associated with coronary disease in two large case-control datasets. CONCLUSIONS - We have identified nine genetic variants associated with fasting proinsulin. Our findings illuminate the biology underlying glucose homeostasis and T2D development in humans and argue against a direct role of proinsulin in coronary artery disease pathogenesis