87 research outputs found

    Application of Game Theory to Some Problems in Automobile Insurance

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    Characterization of methyl-, 3-deoxy-, and methyl-deoxysugars in marine high molecular weight dissolved organic matter

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    Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2007. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Organic Geochemistry 38 (2007): 884-896, doi:10.1016/j.orggeochem.2007.02.005.Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of marine high molecular weight dissolved organic matter (HMWDOM) in surface waters show that >50% of the carbon is a compositionally well-defined family of acylated-polysaccharides that are conserved across ocean basins. However, acid hydrolysis of HMWDOM followed by chromatographic analyses recover only 10-20% of the carbon as neutral, amino, and acidic sugars. Most carbohydrate in HMWDOM therefore remains uncharacterized. Here we use acid hydrolysis followed by Ag+ and Pb2+ cation exchange chromatography to separate HMWDOM hydrolysis products for characterization by 1-D and 2-D NMR spectroscopy. In addition to neutral sugars identified in past studies, we find 3-Omethylglucose, 3-O-methylrhamnose, 2-O-methylrhamnose and 2-O-methylfucose. We also find 3-deoxysugars to be present, although their complete structures could not be determined. Methyl sugars are widely distributed in plant and bacterial structural carbohydrates, such as cell wall polysaccharides, and their presence in HMWDOM suggests that structural carbohydrates may contribute to DOM in surface seawater. We find most HMWDOM carbohydrate is not depolymerized by acid hydrolysis, and that the nonhydrolyzable component includes 6-deoxysugars.Funding was provided by the Ocean Carbon Sequestration Research Program, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), U.S. Department of Energy grant DEFG0200ER62999 and the National Sciences Foundation Chemical Oceanography Program grant OCE 9818654. Christos Panagiotopoulos received support through the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and DJR received support through the Stanley Watson Chair in Oceanography

    Prediagnosis Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Lung Cancer Survival: A Pooled Analysis of 11 Cohorts

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    Background: Little is known about the association between physical activity before cancer diagnosis and survival among lung cancer patients. In this pooled analysis of 11 prospective cohorts, we investigated associations of prediagnosis leisuretime physical activity (LTPA) with all-cause and lung cancer–specific mortality among incident lung cancer patients. Methods: Using self-reported data on regular engagement in exercise and sports activities collected at study enrollment, we assessed metabolic equivalent hours (MET-h) of prediagnosis LTPA per week. According to the Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans, prediagnosis LTPA was classified into inactivity, less than 8.3 and at least 8.3 MET-h per week (the minimum recommended range). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CIs) for all-cause and lung cancer–specific mortality after adjustment for major prognostic factors and lifetime smoking history. Results: Of 20 494 incident lung cancer patients, 16 864 died, including 13 596 deaths from lung cancer (overall 5-year relative survival rate ¼ 20.9%, 95% CI ¼ 20.3% to 21.5%). Compared with inactivity, prediagnosis LTPA of more than 8.3 MET-h per week was associated with a lower hazard of all-cause mortality (multivariable-adjusted HR ¼ 0.93, 95% CI ¼ 0.88 to 0.99), but not with lung cancer–specific mortality (multivariable-adjusted HR ¼ 0.99, 95% CI ¼ 0.95 to 1.04), among the overall population. Additive interaction was found by tumor stage (Pinteraction ¼ .008 for all-cause mortality and .003 for lung cancer–specific mortality). When restricted to localized cancer, prediagnosis LTPA of at least 8.3 MET-h per week linked to 20% lower mortality: multivariableadjusted HRs were 0.80 (95% CI¼ 0.67 to 0.97) for all-cause mortality and 0.80 (95% CI¼ 0.65 to 0.99) for lung cancer–specific mortality. Conclusions: Regular participation in LTPA that met or exceeded the minimum Physical Activity Guidelines was associated with reduced hazards of mortality among lung cancer patients, especially those with early stage cancer

    A quantitative approach towards a better understanding of the dynamics of Salmonella spp. in a pork slaughter-line.

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    Pork contributes significantly to the public health disease burden caused by Salmonella infections. During the slaughter process pig carcasses can become contaminated with Salmonella. Contamination at the slaughter-line is initiated by pigs carrying Salmonella on their skin or in their faeces. Another contamination route could be resident flora present on the slaughter equipment. To unravel the contribution of these two potential sources of Salmonella a quantitative study was conducted. Process equipment (belly openers and carcass splitters), faeces and carcasses (skin and cutting surfaces) along the slaughter-line were sampled at 11 sampling days spanning a period of 4 months. Most samples taken directly after killing were positive for Salmonella. On 96.6% of the skin samples Salmonella was identified, whereas a lower number of animals tested positive in their rectum (62.5%). The prevalence of Salmonella clearly declined on the carcasses at the re-work station, either on the cut section or on the skin of the carcass or both (35.9%). Throughout the sampling period of the slaughter-line the total number of Salmonella per animal was almost 2log lower at the re-work station in comparison to directly after slaughter. Seven different serovars were identified during the study with S. Derby (41%) and S. Typhimurium (29%) as the most prominent types. A recurring S. Rissen contamination of one of the carcass splitters indicated the presence of an endemic 'house flora' in the slaughterhouse studied. On many instances several serotypes per individual sample were found. The enumeration of Salmonella and the genotyping data gave unique insight in the dynamics of transmission of this pathogen in a slaughter-line. The data of the presented study support the hypothesis that resident flora on slaughter equipment was a relevant source for contamination of pork

    Personal probabilities of probabilities

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    By definition, the subjective probability distribution of a random event is revealed by the (‘rational’) subject's choice between bets — a view expressed by F. Ramsey, B. De Finetti, L. J. Savage and traceable to E. Borel and, it can be argued, to T. Bayes. Since hypotheses are not observable events, no bet can be made, and paid off, on a hypothesis. The subjective probability distribution of hypotheses (or of a parameter, as in the current ‘Bayesian’ statistical literature) is therefore a figure of speech, an ‘as if’, justifiable in the limit. Given a long sequence of previous observations, the subjective posterior probabilities of events still to be observed are derived by using a mathematical expression that would approximate the subjective probability distribution of hypotheses, if these could be bet on. This position was taken by most, but not all, respondents to a ‘Round Robin’ initiated by J. Marschak after M. H. De-Groot's talk on Stopping Rules presented at the UCLA Interdisciplinary Colloquium on Mathematics in Behavioral Sciences. Other participants: K. Borch, H. Chernoif, R. Dorfman, W. Edwards, T. S. Ferguson, G. Graves, K. Miyasawa, P. Randolph, L. J. Savage, R. Schlaifer, R. L. Winkler. Attention is also drawn to K. Borch's article in this issue.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43847/1/11238_2004_Article_BF00169102.pd
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