Scale, Scope and Cognition: Context Analysis of Multiple Stated Choice Experiments on the Values of Life and Limb

In this paper we use data from an SP study on flood safety in the Netherlands, and elicit individual preferences for reduction of risk to life and limb. We perform context analysis to test the robustness of fatality risk valuation throughout choice experiments. The main interest of this paper is VOSL sensitivity to the valuation of correlated risks (scope effect). Besides, we explore the role of cognition on the stability of valuation across choice experiments using age and education. We pool data from multiple choice experiments and apply nested and mixed logit models in our analysis. We confirm statistically significant sensitivity to scope, comparing VOSL estimates for the test group in a choice experiment where correlated risks were present (risks of fatality, injury and evacuation) to an experiment where only fatality risk is valued. We find that the origin of differences in VOSL valuations across the choice experiments lies in differences in age and educational attainment, and may therefore be related to cognitive abilities of respondents. In particular, we conclude that higher VOSL sensitivity to scope is most prominently present among respondents of senior age (65 and older) and respondents without college education. This finding has important implications for discrete choice modeling and the use of obtained values in cost-benefit analyses

Composite Valuation of Immaterial Damage in Flooding: Value of Statistical Life, Value of Statistical Evacuation and Value of Statistical Injury

This paper enriches existing valuation literature in a number of ways by presenting context-specific estimates of immaterial damage. First, it offers an estimation of value of statistical life (VOSL) in the context of a natural hazard (flooding). Next, as one of the contributions, alongside with less biased estimate of VOSL (euro 6.8 mln) it also provides estimates of the value of statistical injury (VOSI, euro 92,000), and of the value of statistical evacuation (VOSE, euro 2,400). Our estimated indicators are plausible and stay robust throughout various estimations. For flood protection policy in the Netherlands, a higher value of VOSL forthcoming from this research would imply 'underprotection' under current conditions. Another important finding concerns the composition of the total value of immaterial damages, where value of fatalities or value of evacuation may dominate depending on the prevailing floor risk circumstances. This implies that, first, VOSL is not an adequate proxy for immaterial damages since it understates prospective benefits of designated protective measures. Second, spatially differentiated composition of immaterial damages should be explicitly considered to guide policy decisions

A Flood disaster in the Netherlands:a trade-off between paying for protection and undertaking action?

Effectively, one of the principal challenges for the Netherlands in the face of climate change is: How should we manage flood risk so that regional needs are adequately captured? Recent studies however point at the existing gap between risk perceptions of the public and the experts, which seems to become an apple of discord in the Dutch flood management. While public authorities are not willing to emphasize the growing threats that flooding are posing to the country, the issue is pressing hard to be addressed. In this paper we offer a summary of a recent study on flood risk perceptions in the Netherlands that precludes the findings regarding the willingness to pay for (public) measures contrasted to taking (individual) protective action. Clearly, arising debates around the issue of public-private (shared) responsibility in addressing flood risk add more fuel to the fire, where views seem to be polarized. We attempt thus to link this variation in behavioural intention to the willingness to pay for improvements in flood safety and explore the nature of this relationship. We observe in addition that regional differences do matter, which has direct implications for policy and practice. In particular, we suggest that measures tailored to serve local needs and attuned to local perceptions should prove to provide most feasible solutions

Major Disasters in Modern Economies: An Input-Output Based Approach at Modeling Imbalances and Disproportions

It seems that large-scale disasters are becoming an inevitable part of modern societies. Major calamities such as earthquakes, typhoons, and tsunamis are endangering the lives of many people and their possessions all over the world. Some of the most obvious questions to address are: How vulnerable are modern economies to extreme events? And: In which way should modern societies prepare themselves to deal with adversities on a grand scale? A disaster is a multi-faceted phenomenon. In this study, we concentrate on the economic aspects of a large-scale disaster. We address distinctions between direct and indirect costs, problems of double counting between stocks and flows, issues related to temporal and spatial dimensions and, more general, issues of preparedness (mitigation and adaptation) and response (resilience). We discuss modelling issues, and develop a special type of Input-Output model for addressing the major questions. We propose a three-step procedure in disaster policy. The first step consists of thinking about the remaining productive capacity after a major shock in a novel way; the second step involves strategic thinking about a return to equilibrium after a catastrophe; and the third one includes weighing ex-ante preparedness against expected costs. We position our approach against the background of recent developments in Dutch water management and policy, where we signal a change in thinking about flood threats. The country faces new dilemmas, and has to strike a balance between expected losses and future growth

Flood footprint of the 2007 floods in the UK: The case of the Yorkshire and The Humber region

International headlines over the last few years have been dominated by extreme weather events, and floods have been amongst the most frequent and devastating. These disasters represent high costs and functional disruptions to societies and economies. The consequent breakdown of the economic equilibrium exacerbates the losses of the initial physical damages and generates indirect costs that largely amplify the burden of the total damage. Neglecting indirect damages results in misleading results regarding the real dimensions of the costs and prevents accurate decision-making in flood risk management. To obtain an accurate assessment of total flooding costs, this paper introduces the flood footprint concept, as a novel accounting framework that measures the total economic impact that is directly and indirectly caused to the productive system, triggered by the flooding damages to the productive factors, infrastructure and residential capital. The assessment framework account for the damages in the flooded region as well as in wider economic systems and social networks. The flood footprint builds on previous research on disaster impact analysis based on Input-Output methodology, which considers inter-industry flows of goods and services for economic output. The framework was applied to the 2007 summer floods in the UK to determine the total economic impact in the region of Yorkshire and The Humber. The results suggest that the total economic burden of the floods was approximately 4% of the region's GVA (£2.7 billion), from which over half comes from knock-on effects during the 14 months that the economy of Yorkshire and The Humber last to recover. This paper is the first to apply the conceptual framework of flood footprint to a real past event, by which it highlights the economic interdependence among industrial sectors. Through such interrelationships, the economic impacts of a flooding event spill over into the entire economic system, and some of the most affected sectors can be those that are not directly damaged. Neglecting the impact of indirect damages would underestimate the total social costs of flooding events, and mislead the correspondent actions for risk management and adaptation

Spatial econometric modeling of socioeconomic vulnerability and flood impact:Towards a risk-layering approach in southern Malawi

As climate-related disasters escalate, particularly in vulnerable communities in the Global South effective risk management strategies become necessary. The objective of this work was to examine the spatial dependencies between socioeconomic vulnerability and flood impacts in Southern Malawi, merging geospatial methods with econometric modeling. The analysis revealed significant spatial dependencies and spillover effects from data in the Unified Beneficiary Register, Malawi Census, and Rapid Damage Assessments from the 2020 and 2022 floods. Moran's I analysis emphasized the need to account for those spatial spillover effects. The spatial econometric framework, represented by a spatial lag variable in the Spatial Generalized Linear Model, captured these dependencies effectively. Expected associations emerged between flood impacts and socioeconomic indicators such as wealth, education, and household savings, suggesting that economically secure households are less vulnerable. However, unexpected correlations also appeared: food security was positively associated with flood impact, while disability occurrence showed a negative association. These findings challenge resilience assumptions and raise concerns about data accuracy and aftershock dynamics. Insights highlight the need for DRM strategies that incorporate exposure and socioeconomic indicators, along with improved data collection to ensure vulnerable groups are adequately represented. Despite challenges from data scarcity and spatial granularity, this study demonstrates the potential of Spatial Econometric Models to identify spatially interconnected vulnerabilities. The approach can be transferred to other contexts, but further research is needed to refine spatial resolutions and ensure actionable vulnerability characterizations. Integrating spatial dependencies into risk assessments highlights the need for spatially explicit policy interventions to strengthen resilience and advance risk-layering strategies.</p