Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations

Wild waterfowl populations form a natural reservoir of Avian Influenza (AI) virus, and fears exist that these birds may contribute to an AI pandemic by spreading the virus along their migratory flyways. Observational studies suggest that individuals infected with AI virus may delay departure from migratory staging sites. Here, we explore the epidemiological dynamics of avian influenza virus in a migrating mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population with a specific view to understanding the role of infection-induced migration delays on the spread of virus strains of differing transmissibility. We develop a host-pathogen model that combines the transmission dynamics of influenza with the migration, reproduction and mortality of the host bird species. Our modeling predicts that delayed migration of individuals influences both the timing and size of outbreaks of AI virus. We find that (1) delayed migration leads to a lower total number of cases of infection each year than in the absence of migration delay, (2) when the transmission rate of a strain is high, the outbreak starts at the staging sites at which birds arrive in the early part of the fall migration, (3) when the transmission rate is low, infection predominantly occurs later in the season, which is further delayed when there is a migration delay. As such, the rise of more virulent AI strains in waterfowl could lead to a higher prevalence of infection later in the year, which could change the exposure risk for farmed poultry. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of generation time and loss of immunity for the effect of migration delays. Thus, we demonstrate, in contrast to many current transmission risk models solely using empirical information on bird movements to assess the potential for transmission, that a consideration of infection-induced delays is critical to understanding the dynamics of AI infection along the entire flyway.<br /

Extensive coronavirus-induced membrane rearrangements are not a determinant of pathogenicity

Positive-strand RNA (+RNA) viruses rearrange cellular membranes during replication, possibly in order to concentrate and arrange viral replication machinery for efficient viral RNA synthesis. Our previous work showed that in addition to the conserved coronavirus double membrane vesicles (DMVs), Beau-R, an apathogenic strain of avian Gammacoronavirus infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), induces regions of ER that are zippered together and tethered open-necked double membrane spherules that resemble replication organelles induced by other +RNA viruses. Here we compared structures induced by Beau-R with the pathogenic lab strain M41 to determine whether membrane rearrangements are strain dependent. Interestingly, M41 was found to have a low spherule phenotype. We then compared a panel of pathogenic, mild and attenuated IBV strains in ex vivo tracheal organ culture (TOC). Although the low spherule phenotype of M41 was conserved in TOCs, each of the other tested IBV strains produced DMVs, zippered ER and spherules. Furthermore, there was a significant correlation for the presence of DMVs with spherules, suggesting that these structures are spatially and temporally linked. Our data indicate that virus induced membrane rearrangements are fundamentally linked to the viral replicative machinery. However, coronavirus replicative apparatus clearly has the plasticity to function in different structural contexts

Evolutionary Analysis of Inter-Farm Transmission Dynamics in a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Epidemic

Phylogenetic studies have largely contributed to better understand the emergence, spread and evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza during epidemics, but sampling of genetic data has never been detailed enough to allow mapping of the spatiotemporal spread of avian influenza viruses during a single epidemic. Here, we present genetic data of H7N7 viruses produced from 72% of the poultry farms infected during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. We use phylogenetic analyses to unravel the pathways of virus transmission between farms and between infected areas. In addition, we investigated the evolutionary processes shaping viral genetic diversity, and assess how they could have affected our phylogenetic analyses. Our results show that the H7N7 virus was characterized by a high level of genetic diversity driven mainly by a high neutral substitution rate, purifying selection and limited positive selection. We also identified potential reassortment in the three genes that we have tested, but they had only a limited effect on the resolution of the inter-farm transmission network. Clonal sequencing analyses performed on six farm samples showed that at least one farm sample presented very complex virus diversity and was probably at the origin of chronological anomalies in the transmission network. However, most virus sequences could be grouped within clearly defined and chronologically sound clusters of infection and some likely transmission events between farms located 0.8–13 Km apart were identified. In addition, three farms were found as most likely source of virus introduction in distantly located new areas. These long distance transmission events were likely facilitated by human-mediated transport, underlining the need for strict enforcement of biosafety measures during outbreaks. This study shows that in-depth genetic analysis of virus outbreaks at multiple scales can provide critical information on virus transmission dynamics and can be used to increase our capacity to efficiently control epidemics

Impact of renal impairment on atrial fibrillation: ESC-EHRA EORP-AF Long-Term General Registry

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and renal impairment share a bidirectional relationship with important pathophysiological interactions. We evaluated the impact of renal impairment in a contemporary cohort of patients with AF. Methods: We utilised the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF Long-Term General Registry. Outcomes were analysed according to renal function by CKD-EPI equation. The primary endpoint was a composite of thromboembolism, major bleeding, acute coronary syndrome and all-cause death. Secondary endpoints were each of these separately including ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic event, intracranial haemorrhage, cardiovascular death and hospital admission. Results: A total of 9306 patients were included. The distribution of patients with no, mild, moderate and severe renal impairment at baseline were 16.9%, 49.3%, 30% and 3.8%, respectively. AF patients with impaired renal function were older, more likely to be females, had worse cardiac imaging parameters and multiple comorbidities. Among patients with an indication for anticoagulation, prescription of these agents was reduced in those with severe renal impairment, p&nbsp;&lt;.001. Over 24&nbsp;months, impaired renal function was associated with significantly greater incidence of the primary composite outcome and all secondary outcomes. Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated an inverse relationship between eGFR and the primary outcome (HR 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01–1.14] per 10&nbsp;ml/min/1.73&nbsp;m2 decrease), that was most notable in patients with eGFR &lt;30&nbsp;ml/min/1.73&nbsp;m2 (HR 2.21 [95% CI, 1.23–3.99] compared to eGFR ≥90&nbsp;ml/min/1.73&nbsp;m2). Conclusion: A significant proportion of patients with AF suffer from concomitant renal impairment which impacts their overall management. Furthermore, renal impairment is an independent predictor of major adverse events including thromboembolism, major bleeding, acute coronary syndrome and all-cause death in patients with AF

Clinical complexity and impact of the ABC (Atrial fibrillation Better Care) pathway in patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the ESC-EHRA EURObservational Research Programme in AF General Long-Term Registry

Background: Clinical complexity is increasingly prevalent among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The ‘Atrial fibrillation Better Care’ (ABC) pathway approach has been proposed to streamline a more holistic and integrated approach to AF care; however, there are limited data on its usefulness among clinically complex patients. We aim to determine the impact of ABC pathway in a contemporary cohort of clinically complex AF patients. Methods: From the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry, we analysed clinically complex AF patients, defined as the presence of frailty, multimorbidity and/or polypharmacy. A K-medoids cluster analysis was performed to identify different groups of clinical complexity. The impact of an ABC-adherent approach on major outcomes was analysed through Cox-regression analyses and delay of event (DoE) analyses. Results: Among 9966 AF patients included, 8289 (83.1%) were clinically complex. Adherence to the ABC pathway in the clinically complex group reduced the risk of all-cause death (adjusted HR [aHR]: 0.72, 95%CI 0.58–0.91), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs; aHR: 0.68, 95%CI 0.52–0.87) and composite outcome (aHR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.58–0.85). Adherence to the ABC pathway was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of death (aHR: 0.74, 95%CI 0.56–0.98) and composite outcome (aHR: 0.76, 95%CI 0.60–0.96) also in the high-complexity cluster; similar trends were observed for MACEs. In DoE analyses, an ABC-adherent approach resulted in significant gains in event-free survival for all the outcomes investigated in clinically complex patients. Based on absolute risk reduction at 1 year of follow-up, the number needed to treat for ABC pathway adherence was 24 for all-cause death, 31 for MACEs and 20 for the composite outcome. Conclusions: An ABC-adherent approach reduces the risk of major outcomes in clinically complex AF patients. Ensuring adherence to the ABC pathway is essential to improve clinical outcomes among clinically complex AF patients

Impact of clinical phenotypes on management and outcomes in European atrial fibrillation patients: a report from the ESC-EHRA EURObservational Research Programme in AF (EORP-AF) General Long-Term Registry

Background: Epidemiological studies in atrial fibrillation (AF) illustrate that clinical complexity increase the risk of major adverse outcomes. We aimed to describe European AF patients\u2019 clinical phenotypes and analyse the differential clinical course. Methods: We performed a hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward\u2019s Method and Squared Euclidean Distance using 22 clinical binary variables, identifying the optimal number of clusters. We investigated differences in clinical management, use of healthcare resources and outcomes in a cohort of European AF patients from a Europe-wide observational registry. Results: A total of 9363 were available for this analysis. We identified three clusters: Cluster 1 (n = 3634; 38.8%) characterized by older patients and prevalent non-cardiac comorbidities; Cluster 2 (n = 2774; 29.6%) characterized by younger patients with low prevalence of comorbidities; Cluster 3 (n = 2955;31.6%) characterized by patients\u2019 prevalent cardiovascular risk factors/comorbidities. Over a mean follow-up of 22.5 months, Cluster 3 had the highest rate of cardiovascular events, all-cause death, and the composite outcome (combining the previous two) compared to Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 (all P &lt;.001). An adjusted Cox regression showed that compared to Cluster 2, Cluster 3 (hazard ratio (HR) 2.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.27\u20133.62; HR 3.42, 95%CI 2.72\u20134.31; HR 2.79, 95%CI 2.32\u20133.35), and Cluster 1 (HR 1.88, 95%CI 1.48\u20132.38; HR 2.50, 95%CI 1.98\u20133.15; HR 2.09, 95%CI 1.74\u20132.51) reported a higher risk for the three outcomes respectively. Conclusions: In European AF patients, three main clusters were identified, differentiated by differential presence of comorbidities. Both non-cardiac and cardiac comorbidities clusters were found to be associated with an increased risk of major adverse outcomes

Economic analysis with using target costing of construction project in public private partnership

Partnerstwo publiczno-prywatne (PPP) jest stosowanym na świecie systemem realizacji przedsięwzięć inwestycyjnych dla celów publicznych. Stanowi rozwiązanie, które w Polsce powinno być wykorzystywane w powiązaniu z uwzględnieniem funduszy unijnych. Jednym z podstawowych problemów, które należy rozwiązać, podejmując inwestycje w jakimkolwiek modelu systemu PPP, jest trafne oszacowanie kosztów przedsięwzięcia inwestycyjnego i przeprowadzenie rachunku efektywności inwestycji. Musi on obejmować zarówno wszystkie etapy cyklu inwestycyjnego (tzn. od pomysłu do oddania do eksploatacji), jak i uwzględniać okres eksploatacji zasobów, objęty kontraktem na świadczenie usług i zarządzanie nimi przez partnera prywatnego. Autorzy w artykule przedstawiają metodę analizy ekonomicznej na przykładzie hipotetycznej inwestycji drogowej, jaką jest obwodnica miasta. Wykorzystuje ona tradycyjne narzędzia, używane w ocenie ekonomicznej opłacalności przedsięwzięć inwestycyjnych, takie jak NPV (zaktualizowana wartość netto) oraz rachunek kosztów docelowych (target costing). Ten ostatni stanowi podstawowy element w kalkulacji kosztów i odnosi się do całego cyklu życia produktu. Przykład poprzedzony jest krótką charakterystyką partnerstwa publiczno-prywatnego oraz metody rachunku kosztów docelowych.Public Private Partnership (PPP) is the system of realizing investment - enterprises for public purposes that is practiced in the world. It is the solution that should be practiced in Poland, also with the usage of the funds from the European Union. One of the main problems, that should be solved while undertaking investments in any model of the system Public Private Partnership (PPP), is a right estimation of costs of the investment - enterprise and making the calculation of the investment efficiency. This calculation has to include both all the stages of the investment cycle (i.e. from the idea into the exploitation) and the exploitation cycle of the resources that is contracted for lendering services and managing the resources by the private partner. The authors of this article present the method of economic analysis on the example of the hypothetical road - investment of a ring-road. This method uses the traditional tool that is practiced in the economic estimation of the profitability of the investment - enterprises, e.g. NPV (updated net value) and the account of target costing that is the fundamental element of cost calculation and refers to the whole life cycle of the product. The example is prefaced by a short characteristics of Public Private Partnership (PPP) and the method of target costing

Zarządzanie środowiskowe w polskich przedsiębiorstwach

Economic activity has an enormous influence on the environment. Enterprises contribute to the progressing degradation of existing ecosystems, cause serious threats to the biological diversity of our planet, emit hazardous pollutants and use available natural resources excessively, which can lead to their premature exhaustion. There-fore, for the world’s nations to grow and develop in a sustainable manner, there is an urgent need to minimize the adverse impact of business activities, households and whole societies on the environment. Environmental degradation cannot be restrained by the neutralization of produced pollutants alone. Today, we need efficient environment-friendly technologies and production processes. Effective efforts aimed at the reduction of our ecological footprint should be undertaken by all involved entities, including designers, engineers and managers at all stages of the product design, production and distribution processes. The concept of corporate social respon-sibility, understood as a voluntary process of taking into account a wide array of social and ecological issues in all business activities as well as contacts with stakeholders, has become very popular in Poland. Development of the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainable development has a huge impact on the shap-ing of pro-ecological attitudes in society. From this perspective corporate social responsibility (CSR) can be rightly regarded as a concept useful to ensure sustainable development at the micro-level, i.e. at the level of enterprises. CSR is a component of sustainable eco-management. It can ensure that the principles of sustainable development are effectively implemented at the level of socio-economic systems, as well as individual actors involved in change. Lublin Voivodeship has a clean and attractive environment. This paper presents research findings of the study carried out in 2005-2010 by researchers from the Faculty of Management, Lublin University of Technology. The main purpose of the study was to analyze the environmental activities and initiatives undertaken by enterprises operating in the region, directions of pro-environmental investments, implemented environmental management systems, as well as motivations of business managers to pay more attention to environmental issues.Działalność gospodarcza ma ogromny wpływ na środowisko. Przedsiębiorstwa przyczyniają się do postępującej degradacji istniejących ekosystemów, powodując poważne zagrożenie dla różnorodności biologicznej naszej planety, emitując niebezpieczne zanieczyszczenia i nadmiernie wykorzystując dostępne zasoby naturalne. Istnie-je konieczność przeprowadzania różnorodnych działań w celu zahamowania degradacji środowiska poprzez minimalizację negatywnego wpływu podmiotów gospodarczych, gospodarstw domowych i całego społeczeń-stwa. Nie wystarczą już tylko inicjatywy, których celem jest unieszkodliwianie zanieczyszczeń wytworzonych. Niezbędne jest poszukiwanie rozwiązań prowadzenia działalności w sposób jak najmniej uciążliwy dla środowi-ska w czasie planowania produkcji, projektowania dóbr oraz na każdym etapie procesu wytwórczego. Społeczna odpowiedzialność przedsiębiorstw rozumiana jako dobrowolne uwzględnianie aspektów społecznych i ekologicznych w działaniach biznesowych oraz w kontaktach z interesariuszami, stała się pojęciem powszech-nie znanym w Polsce. Rozwój koncepcji społecznej odpowiedzialności i zrównoważonego rozwoju ma ogromny wpływ na kształtowanie właściwych postaw proekologicznych w społeczeństwie. Z tej perspektywy, CSR może być traktowana jako koncepcja zapewniająca zrównoważony rozwój na poziomie mikro, czyli na poziomie przedsiębiorstw. CSR stanowi element zrównoważonego zarządzania. Może zapewnić realizację zasad zrówno-ważonego rozwoju nie tylko na poziomie społeczno-ekonomicznych systemów, ale także indywidualnych dzia-łaczy zaangażowanych w zmiany. Województwo lubelskie jest regionem czystym i atrakcyjnym środowiskowo. W latach 2005-2010 w celu oceny działań prośrodowiskowych najczęściej podejmowanych w przedsiębiorstwach zostały przeprowadzone badania w grupie podmiotów prowadzących działalność w tym województwie. Celem artykułu jest ukazanie kierunku inicjatyw prośrodowiskowych wyznaczanych przy prowadzeniu działalności gospodarczej, najczęściej podej-mowanych inwestycjach prośrodowiskowych, wprowadzanych systemach zarządzania środowiskowego, a także czynnikach skłaniających do uwzględniania wpływu podmiotów na stan środowiska naturalnego oraz barier takiego postępowania

Wpływ wilgotności ziarna jęczmienia na proces płatkowania

The paper presents the study, which aimed at determining how moisture content of barley grain and the size of the grain crusher working gap affect changes on the embodied energy during the flaking process and properties of the obtained flakes. Thus, the barley grains of Barke variety were moisturized up to the level of 14, 18, 22 and 26%. Then grains were subjected to flaking, and at the same time the embodied energy was measured. The next step was to evaluate the physical properties of the product such as: angle of repose, chute angle, bulk and shaken density. Also a mesh analysis was applied. Moreover, the absorption coefficient of water has been evaluated for each series of products. As stated, the size of grain crusher working gap significantly affects changes of the embodied energy during the process. The lowest values were registered for 2.0 mm wide gap. As observed, the moisture content of grains affects the physical properties of the product. It should also be noted, that during the flaking process of grain with moisture content of 14%, the significant amount of flour is obtained.W pracy zaprezentowano badania, które miały na celu określenie, w jaki sposób wilgotność ziarna jęczmienia oraz wielkość szczeliny roboczej gniotownika wpływają na zmiany energochłonności procesu płatkowania oraz właściwości uzyskanych płatków. W tym celu dowilżono ziarno jęczmienia odmiany Barke do poziomu 14, 18, 22 i 26%. Następnie ziarno poddano procesowi płatkowania, w trakcie którego przeprowadzono pomiar energochłonności. Kolejnym etapem było określenie właściwości fizycznych produktu, takich jak: kąt zsypu, kąt usypu, gęstość usypowa oraz gęstość utrzęsiona. Przeprowadzono również analizę sitową płatków. Dodatkowo określono zdolność płatków do pochłaniania wody. Stwierdzono, że wielkość szczeliny roboczej istotnie wpływała na zmiany energochłonności procesu. Najniższe wartości odnotowano dla szczeliny o szerokości 2,0 mm. Zaobserwowano, że wzrost wilgotności ziarna wpływa na właściwości fizyczne produktu. Należy także stwierdzić, że przy 14% wilgotności ziarna w procesie płatkowania powstaje największa ilość frakcji mączystej (ok. 5%) w porównaniu do płatków z ziaren o wyższej wilgotności