Reduction of Yield and Income Risk Under Alternative Crop Insurance and Disaster Assistance Plans

This study compares the effectiveness of five crop insurance/disaster assistance plans: an individual farm yield insurance plan similar to the current FCIC multi-peril program ; two area yield insurance plans; a farm yield disaster assistance plan; and an area yield disaster assistance plan. These methods are examined for reduction in yield and gross income variability with and without participation in the government deficiency payment programs using farm-level yield data from 98 dryland wheat farms and 38 dryland corn farms in Kansas . Although individual farm yield insurance is complex, suffers from moral hazard and adverse selection problems, and is likely to be the most expensive to administer , it provides more yield and gross income risk reduction than any of the alternative insurance/disaster assistance plans.Crop Insurance, Crop Disaster Assistance, Risk, Wheat, Corn, Risk and Uncertainty,

Real-world treatment patterns and outcomes among individuals receiving first-line pembrolizumab therapy for recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

BackgroundPembrolizumab, a PD-1 immune checkpoint inhibitor, is approved as first-line (1L) treatment for recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC) as monotherapy or in combination with platinum and 5-fluorouracil chemotherapy. Limited data exist on the use of these regimens in real-world settings.ObjectiveOur primary objectives were to describe baseline characteristics and real-world overall survival (rwOS), time on treatment (rwToT), and time to next treatment (rwTTNT) among individuals with R/M HNSCC receiving approved 1L pembrolizumab therapies. We also aimed to identify baseline factors associated with choice of 1L pembrolizumab therapy and with rwOS.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study of adults with R/M HNSCC receiving 1L pembrolizumab monotherapy or pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy. We used Kaplan-Meier analyses to assess real-world outcomes, logistic regression modeling to identify factors associated with choice of 1L pembrolizumab therapy, and Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors associated with rwOS.ResultsThe study population included 431 individuals receiving 1L pembrolizumab monotherapy and 215 receiving 1L pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy. The use of 1L pembrolizumab monotherapy was associated with higher baseline combined positive score for PD-L1 expression, older age, higher Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), laryngeal tumor site, and human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive tumor status. The pembrolizumab monotherapy group had a median (95% CI) rwOS of 12.1 (9.2–15.1) months, rwToT of 4.2 (3.5–4.6) months, and rwTTNT of 6.5 (5.4–7.4) months. Among this group, HPV-positive tumor status and lower ECOG PS were associated with longer rwOS, and oral cavity tumor site with shorter rwOS. The pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy cohort had a median (95% CI) rwOS of 11.9 (9.0–16.0) months, rwToT of 4.9 (3.8–5.6) months, and rwTTNT of 6.6 (5.8–8.3) months. In this group, HPV-positive tumor status was associated with longer rwOS.ConclusionsThis study adds to clinical trial data by summarizing real-world treatment outcomes with 1L pembrolizumab-containing therapies in a more heterogeneous population. Overall survival outcomes in both treatment groups were similar to those observed in the registration clinical trial. These findings support the use of pembrolizumab as standard of care for R/M HNSCC

Default Risk and Equity Returns: A Comparison of the Bank-Based German and the U.S. Financial System

In this paper, we address the question whether the impact of default risk on equity returns depends on the financial system firms operate in. Using an implementation of Merton's option-pricing model for the value of equity to estimate firms' default risk, we construct a factor that measures the excess return of firms with low default risk over firms with high default risk. We then compare results from asset pricing tests for the German and the U.S. stock markets. Since Germany is the prime example of a bank-based financial system, where debt is supposedly a major instrument of corporate governance, we expect that a systematic default risk effect on equity returns should be more pronounced for German rather than U.S. firms. Our evidence suggests that a higher firm default risk systematically leads to lower returns in both capital markets. This contradicts some previous results for the U.S. by Vassalou/Xing (2004), but we show that their default risk factor looses its explanatory power if one includes a default risk factor measured as a factor mimicking portfolio. It further turns out that the composition of corporate debt affects equity returns in Germany. Firms' default risk sensitivities are attenuated the more a firm depends on bank debt financing

Measurements of double-helicity asymmetries in inclusive J/ψJ/\psi production in longitudinally polarized p+pp+p collisions at s=510\sqrt{s}=510 GeV

We report the double helicity asymmetry, $A_{LL}^{J/\psi}$, in inclusive $J/\psi$ production at forward rapidity as a function of transverse momentum $p_T$ and rapidity $|y|$. The data analyzed were taken during $\sqrt{s}=510$ GeV longitudinally polarized $p$$+$$p$ collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) in the 2013 run using the PHENIX detector. At this collision energy, $J/\psi$ particles are predominantly produced through gluon-gluon scatterings, thus $A_{LL}^{J/\psi}$ is sensitive to the gluon polarization inside the proton. We measured $A_{LL}^{J/\psi}$ by detecting the decay daughter muon pairs $\mu^+ \mu^-$ within the PHENIX muon spectrometers in the rapidity range $1.2<|y|<2.2$. In this kinematic range, we measured the $A_{LL}^{J/\psi}$ to be $0.012 \pm 0.010$~(stat)~$\pm$~$0.003$(syst). The $A_{LL}^{J/\psi}$ can be expressed to be proportional to the product of the gluon polarization distributions at two distinct ranges of Bjorken $x$: one at moderate range $x \approx 0.05$ where recent RHIC data of jet and $\pi^0$ double helicity spin asymmetries have shown evidence for significant gluon polarization, and the other one covering the poorly known small-$x$ region $x \approx 2\times 10^{-3}$. Thus our new results could be used to further constrain the gluon polarization for $x< 0.05$.Comment: 335 authors, 10 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, 2013 data. Version accepted for publication by Phys. Rev. D. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Nuclear matter effects on J/ψJ/\psi production in asymmetric Cu+Au collisions at sNN\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}} = 200 GeV

We report on $J/\psi$ production from asymmetric Cu+Au heavy-ion collisions at $\sqrt{s_{_{NN}}}$=200 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at both forward (Cu-going direction) and backward (Au-going direction) rapidities. The nuclear modification of $J/\psi$ yields in Cu$+$Au collisions in the Au-going direction is found to be comparable to that in Au$+$Au collisions when plotted as a function of the number of participating nucleons. In the Cu-going direction, $J/\psi$ production shows a stronger suppression. This difference is comparable in magnitude and has the same sign as the difference expected from shadowing effects due to stronger low-$x$ gluon suppression in the larger Au nucleus. The relative suppression is opposite to that expected from hot nuclear matter dissociation, since a higher energy density is expected in the Au-going direction.Comment: 349 authors, 10 pages, 4 figures, and 4 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. C. For v2, fixed LaTeX error in 3rd-to-last sentence. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Inclusive cross section and double-helicity asymmetry for π0\pi^{0} production at midrapidity in pp++pp collisions at s=510\sqrt{s}=510 GeV

PHENIX measurements are presented for the cross section and double-helicity asymmetry ($A_{LL}$) in inclusive $\pi^0$ production at midrapidity from $p$$+$$p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=510$~GeV from data taken in 2012 and 2013 at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The next-to-leading-order perturbative-quantum-chromodynamics theory calculation is in excellent agreement with the presented cross section results. The calculation utilized parton-to-pion fragmentation functions from the recent DSS14 global analysis, which prefer a smaller gluon-to-pion fragmentation function. The $\pi^{0}A_{LL}$ results follow an increasingly positive asymmetry trend with $p_T$ and $\sqrt{s}$ with respect to the predictions and are in excellent agreement with the latest global analysis results. This analysis incorporated earlier results on $\pi^0$ and jet $A_{LL}$, and suggested a positive contribution of gluon polarization to the spin of the proton $\Delta G$ for the gluon momentum fraction range $x>0.05$. The data presented here extend to a currently unexplored region, down to $x\sim0.01$, and thus provide additional constraints on the value of $\Delta G$. The results confirm the evidence for nonzero $\Delta G$ using a different production channel in a complementary kinematic region.Comment: 413 authors, 8 pages, 4 figures. v2 is version accepted as PRD Rapid Communication. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm