Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing macroeconomic variability is a decline in the volatility of other structural shocks (demand and supply). A change to a more responsive monetary policy regime also played a role

Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of macroeconomic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing macroeconomic variability is a decline in the volatility of other structural shocks (demand and supply). A change to a more responsive monetary policy regime also played a role

Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies

We analyse fiscal policy in resource-rich economies using a novel Bayesian regime-switching panel model. The identified regimes capture pro- or countercyclical fiscal behaviour, while the switches between the regimes have the interpretation of changes in fiscal policy. Applying the model to sixteen oil-producing economies, we show that fiscal policy has alternated between a procyclical and countercyclical regime multiple times over the sample. Furthermore, we find fiscal policy to be the most volatile in the procyclical regime and that the probability of being in the procyclical regime is higher for OPEC countries rather than non OPEC countries. We also show that following either an increase or decrease in oil revenues, the growth in government expenditure mostly increases, suggesting there is an upward bias in expenditures in oil-producing countries. These are new findings in the literature

Insider forces in wage determination: new evidence for Norwegian industries

Using panel data for Norwegian industries, we establish a significant permanent relation between industry wages and industry profitability. The estimated long-run insider weight is above 0.2 and stable both over time and across industries. Industry wages are significantly affected by aggregate unemployment, and the preferred wage equation implies a highly convex wage curve.

Oil revenues for public investment in Africa: targeting urban or rural areas?

Oil revenue, Public investment, Productivity, Africa, Agricultural development, Poverty, H4, O5, Q3,