Comparative Validation of Realtime Solar Wind Forecasting Using the UCSD Heliospheric Tomography Model

The University of California, San Diego 3D Heliospheric Tomography Model reconstructs the evolution of heliospheric structures, and can make forecasts of solar wind density and velocity up to 72 hours in the future. The latest model version, installed and running in realtime at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), analyzes scintillations of meter wavelength radio point sources recorded by the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory(STELab) together with realtime measurements of solar wind speed and density recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer(ACE) Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor(SWEPAM).The solution is reconstructed using tomographic techniques and a simple kinematic wind model. Since installation, the CCMC has been recording the model forecasts and comparing them with ACE measurements, and with forecasts made using other heliospheric models hosted by the CCMC. We report the preliminary results of this validation work and comparison with alternative models

Solar and Heliospheric Physics with the Square Kilometre Array

The fields of solar radiophysics and solar system radio physics, or radio heliophysics, will benefit immensely from an instrument with the capabilities projected for SKA. Potential applications include interplanetary scintillation (IPS), radio-burst tracking, and solar spectral radio imaging with a superior sensitivity. These will provide breakthrough new insights and results in topics of fundamental importance, such as the physics of impulsive energy releases, magnetohydrodynamic oscillations and turbulence, the dynamics of post-eruptive processes, energetic particle acceleration, the structure of the solar wind and the development and evolution of solar wind transients at distances up to and beyond the orbit of the Earth. The combination of the high spectral, time and spatial resolution and the unprecedented sensitivity of the SKA will radically advance our understanding of basic physical processes operating in solar and heliospheric plasmas and provide a solid foundation for the forecasting of space weather events.Comment: 15 pages, Proceedings of Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array (AASKA14). 9 -13 June, 2014. Giardini Naxos, Italy. Online at http://pos.sissa.it/cgi-bin/reader/conf.cgi?confid=215, id.16

Large-scale structure of the fast solar wind

We present the results of a comprehensive study of the fast solar wind near solar minimum conditions using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data taken with the EISCAT system in northern Scandinavia, and a recent extremely long baseline observation using both EISCAT and MERLIN systems. The results from IPS observations suggest that the fast wind inside 100 solar radii (R-circle dot) can be represented by a two-mode model in some cases but this distinction is much less clear by in situ distances beyond 1 astronomical unit (215 R-circle dot). Two distinct fast streams are seen in the extremely long baseline IPS observation; comparison of the IPS line of sight with a synoptic map of white light indicates the faster mode overlies the polar crown and the slower fast mode overlies an equatorial extension of the polar coronal hole

Interpretation of Radio Wave Scintillation Observed through LOFAR Radio Telescopes

Radio waves propagating through a medium containing irregularities in the spatial distribution of the electron density develop fluctuations in their intensities and phases. In the case of radio waves emitted from astronomical objects, they propagate through electron density irregularities in the interstellar medium, the interplanetary medium, and Earth’s ionosphere. The LOFAR radio telescope, with stations across Europe, can measure intensity across the VHF radio band and thus intensity scintillation on the signals received from compact astronomical objects. Modeling intensity scintillation allows the estimate of various parameters of the propagation medium, for example, its drift velocity and its turbulent power spectrum. However, these estimates are based on the assumptions of ergodicity of the observed intensity fluctuations and, typically, of weak scattering. A case study of single-station LOFAR observations of the strong astronomical source Cassiopeia A in the VHF range is utilized to illustrate deviations from ergodicity, as well as the presence of both weak and strong scattering. Here it is demonstrated how these aspects can lead to misleading estimates of the propagation medium properties, for example, in the solar wind. This analysis provides a method to model errors in these estimates, which can be used in the characterization of both the interplanetary medium and Earth’s ionosphere. Although the discussion is limited to the case of the interplanetary medium and Earth’s ionosphere, its ideas are also applicable to the case of the interstellar medium

LOFAR Observations of Substructure Within a Traveling Ionospheric Disturbance at Mid-Latitude

The large scale morphology and finer sub-structure within a slowly propagating traveling ionospheric disturbance (TID) are studied using wide band trans-ionospheric radio observations with the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR; van Haarlem et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201220873). The observations were made under geomagnetically quiet conditions, between 0400 and 0800 on 7 January 2019, over the UK. In combination with ionograms and Global Navigation Satellite System Total Electron Content anomaly data we estimate the TID velocity to ∼60 ms−1, in a North-westerly direction. Clearly defined substructures with oscillation periods of ∼300 s were identified within the TID, corresponding to scale sizes of 20 km. At the geometries and observing wavelengths involved, the Fresnel scale is between 3 and 4 km, hence these substructures contribute significant refractive scattering to the received LOFAR signal. The refractive scattering is strongly coherent across the LOFAR bandwidth used here (25–64 MHz). The size of these structures distinguishes them from previously identified ionospheric scintillation with LOFAR in Fallows et al. (2020), https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2020010, where the scale sizes of the plasma structure varied from ∼500 m to 5 km