Spatial and genomic data to characterize endemic typhoid transmission

BACKGROUND: Diverse environmental exposures and risk factors have been implicated in the transmission of Salmonella Typhi, however, the dominant transmission pathways through the environment to susceptible humans remain unknown. Here, we utilize spatial, bacterial genomic, and hydrological data to refine our view of Typhoid transmission in an endemic setting. METHODS: 546 patients presenting to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre, Malawi with blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever between April 2015 and January 2017 were recruited to a cohort study. The households of a subset of these patients were geolocated, and 256 S. Typhi isolates were whole genome sequenced. Pairwise single nucleotide variant (SNV) distances were incorporated into a geostatistical modeling framework using multidimensional scaling. RESULTS: Typhoid fever was not evenly distributed across Blantyre, with estimated minimum incidence ranging across the city from less than 15 to over 100 cases/100,000/year. Pairwise SNV distance and physical household distances were significantly correlated (p=0.001). We evaluated the ability of river catchment to explain the spatial patterns of genomics observed, finding that it significantly improved the fit of the model (p=0.003). We also found spatial correlation at a smaller spatial scale, of households living <192 meters apart. CONCLUSIONS: These findings reinforce the emerging view that hydrological systems play a key role in the transmission of typhoid fever. By combining genomic and spatial data, we show how multi-faceted data can be used to identify high incidence areas, understand the connections between them, and inform targeted environmental surveillance, all of which will be critical to shape local and regional typhoid control strategies

Genomic investigation of a suspected Klebsiella pneumoniae outbreak in a neonatal care unit in sub-Saharan Africa.

A special-care neonatal unit from a large public hospital in Malawi was noted as having more frequent, difficult-to-treat infections, and a suspected outbreak of multi-drug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae was investigated using genomic characterisation. All K. pneumoniae bloodstream infections (BSIs) from patients in the neonatal ward (n=62), and a subset of K. pneumoniae BSI isolates (n=38) from other paediatric wards in the hospital, collected over a 4 year period were studied. After whole genome sequencing, the strain sequence types (STs), plasmid types, virulence and resistance genes were identified. One ST340 clone, part of clonal complex 258 (CC258) and an ST that drives hospital outbreaks worldwide, harbouring numerous resistance genes and plasmids, was implicated as the likely cause of the outbreak. This study contributes molecular information necessary for tracking and characterizing this important hospital pathogen in sub-Saharan Africa

Invasiveness potential of pneumococcal serotypes in children after introduction of PCV13 in Blantyre, Malawi.

IntroductionThe introduction of PCV13 to the Malawi infant immunization schedule in 2011 has been associated with reduced disease from Streptococcus pneumoniae. Improved understanding of serotypes with high invasive potential can guide future vaccination interventions. We aimed to estimate pneumococcal serotypes associated with acute respiratory infection (ARI) and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in hospitalized children in Blantyre, Malawi.MethodsWe analysed data from healthy children under 5 years in the community in Blantyre and children admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital with ARI between 2015 and 2018. Nasopharyngeal swabs from children were tested for S. pneumoniae and serotyped by latex agglutination if positive. We analysed culture-positive blood and cerebrospinal fluid samples from admitted children between 2012 and 2018 to identify cases of IPD after the introduction of PCV13. We calculated the age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of carriage for S. pneumoniae vaccine serotypes (VT) comparing those with ARI to healthy children. We also calculated age-adjusted ORs comparing serotypes causing IPD to carriage in the community with OR > 1 indicating high invasive potential.ResultsSerotypes 5 (OR 24.73 [95% CI 7.90-78.56] p ConclusionsPneumococcal serotypes 5 and 1 are associated with high invasive potential. Despite high community pneumococcal carriage, pre-hospital antibiotic usage likely reduces pneumococcal detection among children admitted in this setting and further research is needed to investigate serotypes associated with ARI. Data from this study can guide future preventative vaccination strategies in Malawi

Global landscape review of serotype-specific invasive pneumococcal disease surveillance among countries using PCV10/13: The pneumococcal serotype replacement and distribution estimation (PSERENADE) project

Serotype-specific surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is essential for assessing the impact of 10- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV10/13). The Pneumococcal Serotype Replacement and Distribution Estimation (PSERENADE) project aimed to evaluate the global evidence to estimate the impact of PCV10/13 by age, product, schedule, and syndrome. Here we systematically characterize and summarize the global landscape of routine serotype-specific IPD surveillance in PCV10/13-using countries and describe the subset that are included in PSERENADE. Of 138 countries using PCV10/13 as of 2018, we identified 109 with IPD surveillance systems, 76 of which met PSERENADE data collection eligibility criteria. PSERENADE received data from most (n = 63, 82.9%), yielding 240,639 post-PCV10/13 introduction IPD cases. Pediatric and adult surveillance was represented from all geographic regions but was limited from lower income and high-burden countries. In PSERENADE, 18 sites evaluated PCV10, 42 PCV13, and 17 both; 17 sites used a 3 + 0 schedule, 38 used 2 + 1, 13 used 3 + 1, and 9 used mixed schedules. With such a sizeable and generally representative dataset, PSERENADE will be able to conduct robust analyses to estimate PCV impact and inform policy at national and global levels regarding adult immunization, schedule, and product choice, including for higher valency PCVs on the horizon

Rainfall Anomalies and Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

Typhoid fever is a major cause of illness and mortality in low- and middle-income settings. We investigated the association of typhoid fever and rainfall in Blantyre, Malawi, where multi-drug-resistant typhoid has been transmitting since 2011. Peak rainfall preceded the peak in typhoid fever by approximately 15 weeks [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.3, 17.7], indicating no direct biological link. A quasi-Poisson generalised linear modelling framework was used to explore the relationship between rainfall and typhoid incidence at biologically plausible lags of 1-4 weeks. We found a protective effect of rainfall anomalies on typhoid fever, at a two-week lag ( P = 0.006), where a 10 mm lower-than-expected rainfall anomaly was associated with up to a 16% reduction in cases (95% CI 7.6, 26.5). Extreme flooding events may cleanse the environment of S. Typhi, while unusually low rainfall may reduce exposure from sewage overflow. These results add to evidence that rainfall anomalies may play a role in the transmission of enteric pathogens, and can help direct future water and sanitation intervention strategies for the control of typhoid fever

Spatial and genomic data to characterize endemic typhoid transmission

Background Diverse environmental exposures and risk factors have been implicated in the transmission of Salmonella Typhi, however, the dominant transmission pathways through the environment to susceptible humans remain unknown. Here, we utilize spatial, bacterial genomic, and hydrological data to refine our view of Typhoid transmission in an endemic setting. Methods 546 patients presenting to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre, Malawi with blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever between April 2015 and January 2017 were recruited to a cohort study. The households of a subset of these patients were geolocated, and 256 S. Typhi isolates were whole genome sequenced. Pairwise single nucleotide variant (SNV) distances were incorporated into a geostatistical modeling framework using multidimensional scaling. Results Typhoid fever was not evenly distributed across Blantyre, with estimated minimum incidence ranging across the city from less than 15 to over 100 cases/100,000/year. Pairwise SNV distance and physical household distances were significantly correlated (p=0.001). We evaluated the ability of river catchment to explain the spatial patterns of genomics observed, finding that it significantly improved the fit of the model (p=0.003). We also found spatial correlation at a smaller spatial scale, of households living <192 meters apart. Conclusions These findings reinforce the emerging view that hydrological systems play a key role in the transmission of typhoid fever. By combining genomic and spatial data, we show how multi-faceted data can be used to identify high incidence areas, understand the connections between them, and inform targeted environmental surveillance, all of which will be critical to shape local and regional typhoid control strategies

Benefits of enhanced infection prophylaxis at antiretroviral therapy initiation by cryptococcal antigen status

Objectives: To assess baseline prevalence of cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) positivity; and its contribution to reductions in all-cause mortality, deaths from cryptococcus and unknown causes, and new cryptococcal disease in the REALITY trial. Design: Retrospective CrAg testing of baseline and week-4 plasma samples in all 1805 African adults/children with CD4+ cell count less than 100 cells/μl starting antiretroviral therapy who were randomized to receive 12-week enhanced-prophylaxis (fluconazole 100 mg/day, azithromycin, isoniazid, cotrimoxazole) vs. standard-prophylaxis (cotrimoxazole). Methods: Proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative impact of enhanced-prophylaxis vs. standard-cotrimoxazole on all, cryptococcal and unknown deaths, and new cryptococcal disease, through 24 weeks, by baseline CrAg positivity. Results: Excluding 24 (1.4%) participants with active/prior cryptococcal disease at enrolment (all treated for cryptococcal disease), 133/1781 (7.5%) participants were CrAg-positive. By 24 weeks, 105 standard-cotrimoxazole vs. 78 enhanced-prophylaxis participants died. Of nine standard-cotrimoxazole and three enhanced-prophylaxis cryptococcal deaths, seven and two, respectively, were CrAg-positive at baseline. Among deaths of unknown cause, only 1/46 standard-cotrimoxazole and 1/28 enhanced-prophylaxis were CrAg-positive at baseline. There was no evidence that relative reductions in new cryptococcal disease associated with enhanced-prophylaxis varied between baseline CrAg-positives [hazard-ratio = 0.36 (95% confidence interval 0.13–0.98), incidence 19.5 vs. 56.5/100 person-years] and CrAg-negatives [hazard-ratio = 0.33 (0.03–3.14), incidence 0.3 vs. 0.9/100 person-years; Pheterogeneity = 0.95]; nor for all deaths, cryptococcal deaths or unknown deaths (Pheterogeneity > 0.3). Conclusions: Relative reductions in cryptococcal disease/death did not depend on CrAg status. Deaths of unknown cause were unlikely to be cryptococcus-related; plausibly azithromycin contributed to their reduction. Findings support including 100 mg fluconazole in an enhanced-prophylaxis package at antiretroviral therapy initiation where CrAg screening is unavailable/impractical.</p

Impact and effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on population incidence of vaccine and non-vaccine serotype invasive pneumococcal disease in Blantyre, Malawi, 2006-18: prospective observational time-series and case-control studies

BACKGROUND: The population impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) depends on direct and indirect protection. Following Malawi's introduction of the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 2011, we examined its impact on vaccine and non-vaccine serotype invasive pneumococcal disease among vaccine-eligible-age and vaccine-ineligible-age children and adults. METHODS: We did a prospective observational time-series analysis and a case-control study. We used data from between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2018, from laboratory-based surveillance at a government hospital in Malawi. This period included 6 years before and 7 years after introduction of PCV13. By use of negative-binomial regression, we evaluated secular trend-adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) in vaccine serotype and non-vaccine serotype invasive pneumococcal disease before and after introduction of PCV. We compared predicted counterfactual incidence in hypothetical absence of vaccine with empirically observed incidence following vaccine introduction. The case-control study assessed vaccine effectiveness, comparing PCV uptake among cases of vaccine-eligible-age invasive pneumococcal disease versus matched community controls. FINDINGS: Surveillance covered 10 281 476 person-years of observation, with 140 498 blood and 63 291 cerebrospinal fluid cultures. A reduction in total (vaccine serotype plus non-vaccine serotype) invasive pneumococcal disease incidence preceded introduction of PCV: 19% (IRR 0·81, 95% CI 0·74 to 0·88, p<0·0001) among infants (<1 year old), 14% (0·86, 0·80 to 0·93, p<0·0001) among children aged 1–4 years, and 8% (0·92, 0·83 to 1·01, p=0·084) among adolescents and adults (≥15 years old). Among children aged 5–14 years there was a 2% increase in total invasive pneumococcal disease (1·02, 0·93 to 1·11, p=0·72). Compared with the counterfactually predicted incidence, incidence of post-PCV13 vaccine serotype invasive pneumococcal disease was 74% (95% CI 70 to 78) lower among children aged 1–4 years and 79% (76 to 83) lower among children aged 5–14 years, but only 38% (37 to 40) lower among infants and 47% (44 to 51) lower among adolescents and adults. Although non-vaccine serotype invasive pneumococcal disease has increased in incidence since 2015, observed incidence remains low. The case-control study (19 cases and 76 controls) showed vaccine effectiveness against vaccine serotype invasive pneumococcal disease of 80·7% (–73·7 to 97·9). INTERPRETATION: In a high-mortality, high-HIV-prevalence setting in Africa, there were significant pre-vaccine reductions in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease. 7 years after PCV introduction, although vaccine-attributable impact among vaccine-eligible-age children was significant, indirect effects benefitting unvaccinated infants and adults were not. Policy decisions should consider multiple alternative strategies for reducing disease burden, including targeted vaccination outside infant Expanded Programme of Immunization to benefit vulnerable populations. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and National Institute for Health Research

Benefits of enhanced infection prophylaxis at antiretroviral therapy initiation by cryptococcal antigen status

OBJECTIVES: To assess baseline prevalence of cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) positivity; and its contribution to reductions in all-cause mortality, deaths from cryptococcus and unknown causes, and new cryptococcal disease in the REALITY trial. DESIGN: Retrospective CrAg testing of baseline and week-4 plasma samples in all 1805 African adults/children with CD4(+) cell count less than 100 cells/μl starting antiretroviral therapy who were randomized to receive 12-week enhanced-prophylaxis (fluconazole 100 mg/day, azithromycin, isoniazid, cotrimoxazole) vs. standard-prophylaxis (cotrimoxazole). METHODS: Proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative impact of enhanced-prophylaxis vs. standard-cotrimoxazole on all, cryptococcal and unknown deaths, and new cryptococcal disease, through 24 weeks, by baseline CrAg positivity. RESULTS: Excluding 24 (1.4%) participants with active/prior cryptococcal disease at enrolment (all treated for cryptococcal disease), 133/1781 (7.5%) participants were CrAg-positive. By 24 weeks, 105 standard-cotrimoxazole vs. 78 enhanced-prophylaxis participants died. Of nine standard-cotrimoxazole and three enhanced-prophylaxis cryptococcal deaths, seven and two, respectively, were CrAg-positive at baseline. Among deaths of unknown cause, only 1/46 standard-cotrimoxazole and 1/28 enhanced-prophylaxis were CrAg-positive at baseline. There was no evidence that relative reductions in new cryptococcal disease associated with enhanced-prophylaxis varied between baseline CrAg-positives [hazard-ratio =0.36 (95% confidence interval 0.13−0.98), incidence 19.5 vs. 56.5/100 person-years] and CrAg-negatives [hazardratio =0.33 (0.03−3.14), incidence 0.3 vs. 0.9/100 person-years; P(heterogeneity) =0.95]; nor for all deaths, cryptococcal deaths or unknown deaths (P(heterogeneity) > 0.3). CONCLUSION: Relative reductions in cryptococcal disease/death did not depend on CrAg status. Deaths of unknown cause were unlikely to be cryptococcus-related; plausibly azithromycin contributed to their reduction. Findings support including 100 mg fluconazole in an enhanced-prophylaxis package at antiretroviral therapy initiation where CrAg screening is unavailable/impractical