Statistical modelling of international migration flows

The paper deals with uncertainty in estimating international migration flows for an interlinked system of countries. The related problems are discussed on the example of a dedicated model 'IMEM' (Integrated Model of European Migration). The IMEM is a hierarchical Bayesian model, which allows for combining data from different countries with meta-data on definitions and collection methods, as well as with relevant expert information. The model is applied to 31 EU and EFTA countries for the period 2002–2008. The expert opinion comes from a two-round Delphi survey carried out amongst 11 European experts on issues related to migration statistics. The adopted Bayesian approach allows for a coherent quantification of uncertainty stemming from different sources (data discrepancies, model parameters, and expert judgement). The outcomes produced by the model – whole posterior distributions of estimated flows – can be then used for assessing the true magnitude of flows at the European level, taking into account relative costs of overestimating or underestimating of migration flows. In this context, problems related to application of the decision statistical analysis to multidimensional problems are briefly discusse

Poststroke Depression as a Factor Adversely Affecting the Level of Oxidative Damage to Plasma Proteins during a Brain Stroke

Poststroke depression, the second most serious psychosomatic complication after brain stroke, leads to delay of the rehabilitation process and is associated with an increased disability and cognitive impairment along with increase in termmortality. Research into the biochemical changes in depression is still insufficiently described. The aim of our study was therefore to evaluate the possible association between plasma protein oxidative/nitrative damages and the development of poststroke depression. We evaluated oxidative/nitrative modifications of specific proteins by measurement of 3-nitrotyrosine and carbonyl groups levels using ELISA test. Additionally, we checked differences in proteins thiol groups by spectrophotometric assay based on reaction between DTNB and thiols. We also evaluated catalase activity in erythrocytes measured as ability to decompose H2O2. Correlation analysis was performed using Spearman’s rank. We observed significant ( < 0.001) differences in all oxidative/nitrative stress parameters in brain stroke patients compared to healthy group.Our research shows that oxidative damage of proteins is correlated with the degree of poststroke depression, while nitrative changes do not show any relationship.We demonstrate a positive correlation between the concentration of carbonyl groups and the Geriatric Depression Scale and a negative correlation between the degree of depression and the concentration of -SH groups or catalase activity

Relationship between the Increased Haemostatic Properties of Blood Platelets and Oxidative Stress Level in Multiple Sclerosis Patients with the Secondary Progressive Stage

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the autoimmune disease of the central nervous system with complex pathogenesis, different clinical courses and recurrent neurological relapses and/or progression. Despite various scientific papers that focused on early stage of MS, our study targets selective group of late stage secondary progressive MS patients. The presented work is concerned with the reactivity of blood platelets in primary hemostasis in SP MS patients. 50 SP MS patients and 50 healthy volunteers (never diagnosed with MS or other chronic diseases) were examined to evaluate the biological activity of blood platelets (adhesion, aggregation), especially their response to the most important physiological agonists (thrombin, ADP, and collagen) and the effect of oxidative stress on platelet activity. We found that the blood platelets from SP MS patients were significantly more sensitive to all used agonists in comparison with control group. Moreover, the platelet hemostatic function was advanced in patients suffering from SP MS and positively correlated with increased production of in these cells, as well as with Expanded Disability Status Scale. We postulate that the increased oxidative stress in blood platelets in SP MS may be primarily responsible for the altered haemostatic properties of blood platelets.Grants nos. 506/1136 and 545/785 from University of Lodz

PENGARUH PERPUTARAN KAS, PIUTANG, DAN PERSEDIAAN TERHADAP PROFITABILITAS PERUSAHAAN

The purpose of the research is to examine Cash Turnover, Receivable Turnover and Inventory Turnover simultaneously have a significant effect on profitability on property and real estate companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2017. This research is a study using purposive sampling technique in determining samples that produce 34 sample companies. The analytical model used in this study is multiple linear regression models. The results of the study show that Cash Turnover, Receivable Turnover, and Inventory Turnover simultaneously affect Profitability can be seen from the significance amounting to 0.033 and Cash Turnover partially has an influence on profitability seen from the significance value of 0.004 while Receivable Turnover of the significance value is 0.609 and Inventory Turnover the significance value of 0.674 partially has no effect on Profitability

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly

Rozwój polskiej terminologii toponomastycznej

The article presents the evolution of Polish toponomastic terminology – terms and concepts related to the study of geographical names. The material documenting the development of the terms comes from selected, significant monographs and articles related to the toponymy published after World War II. The developmental tendencies, range of toponomastic terms and their initial hierarchic-thematic system have been presented. The featured analyses showed that contemporary toponomastic terminology is quite stable and not excessively extensive. The terms and concepts developed in recent decades have become more widespread and the operability of newly developed, but also of the widely recognised ones, is subject to continuous verification in scientific communication. The presented considerations constitute another voice in the discussion on the creation of an electronic dictionary of Polish onomastic terminology.Przedmiotem artykułu jest prezentacja ewolucji polskiej terminologii toponomastycznej — terminów i pojęć związanych z badaniem nazw geograficznych. Materiał dokumentujący rozwój terminów pochodzi z wybranych, znaczących opracowań i artykułów dotyczących toponimii opublikowanych po II wojnie światowej. Zaprezentowane zostały tendencje rozwojowe, zasób terminów toponomastycznych oraz ich wstępny układ hierarchiczno-tematyczny. Przedstawione analizy wykazały, że współczesna terminologia toponomastyczna jest dość stabilna i nie jest nadmiernie rozbudowana. Terminy i pojęcia powstałe w ostatnich dziesięcioleciach upowszechniły się, a operatywność nowo tworzonych, ale także tych uznanych, podlega ciągłej weryfikacji w komunikacji naukowej. Powyższe rozważania stanowią kolejny głos w dyskusji nad powstaniem elektronicznego słownika polskiej terminologii onomastycznej

Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom, 2010 - 2060: an exploration using Bayesian models

Over the next fifty years the potential impact on human livelihoods of environmental change could be considerable. One possible response may be increased levels of human mobility. This paper offers a first quantification of the levels of environmental migration to the United Kingdom that might be expected. The authors apply Bijak and Wi?niowski’s (2010) methodology for forecasting migration using Bayesian models. They seek to advance the conceptual understanding of forecasting in three ways. First, the paper is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper examines the plausibility of Bayesian modelling of UK immigration by cross-checking expert responses to a Delphi survey with the expectations about environmental mobility evident in the recent research literature. Third, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which the forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold

PERBANDINGAN METODE PART PRACTICE DENGAN METODE WHOLE PRACTICE DALAM PEMBELAJARAN SHOOTING BOLA BASKET (STUDI PADA SISWA KELAS XI AK 3 DAN AK 2 YP SMK TRISILA SURABAYA)

Abstrak Proses belajar mengajar merupakan rangkaian kegiatan mulai dari merencanakan, menyelenggarakan melaksanakan sampai kepada penilaiannya serta menyelenggarakan tindak lanjut apa dalam kegiatan belajar mengajar. Dalam menyampaikan pembelajaran harus mempunyai metode yang sesuai agar dapat berjalan secara evektif, karena pembelajaran yang akan disampaikan adalah pembelajaran shooting bola basket yang mengandung unsur gerak, membutuhkan kerjasama antar individu untuk mencapai hasil belajar lebih baik, untuk itu peneliti membandingkan 2 metode part practice dengan metode whole practice mana metode yang lebih baik untuk pembelajaran shooting bola basket. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah 1. Apakah ada perbedaan hasil belajar shooting bola basket menggunakan metode part practice dengan metode whole practice.2. Seberapa besar perbandingan metode bagian dengan metode keseluruhan terhadap hasil belajar shooting bola basket pada siswa kelas XI YP SMK Trisila Surabaya. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian dan melalui perhitungan data menggunakan SPSS 20.0 menunjukkan bahwa perhitungan uji beda rata-rata, metode bagian dan metode keseluruhan. t-hitung&gt; t-tabel (7,07 &gt;1,69), maka Hipotesis kerja (Ha) diterima apabila t-hitung&gt; t-tabel, Ho ditolak. Dan daritabel 4.4 di atas dapat memberikan penjelasan bahwa hasil perhitungan uji beda rata-rata metode keseluruhan menunjukkan hasil t-hitung&gt; t-tabel (4,25 &gt;1,69), maka Hipotesis kerja (Ha) diterima. Dari hasil uji hipotesis di atas, dapat dikatakan bahwa ada pengaruh yang signifikan pada peningkatan hasil belajar shooting bola basket baik metode bagian dan metode keseluruhan pada siswa YP SMK Trisila Surabaya, siswa sebelum (pre-test) dan sesudah (post-test) pemberian metode bagian atau metode keseluruhan. Dengan hasil perhitungan tersebut dapat diketahui bahwa metode bagian dapat meningkatkan hasil belajar sebesar 12,8%. Sedangkan metode keseluruhan dapat meningkatkan hasil belajar&nbsp; sebesar 8,45%. Dari data diatas&nbsp; dapat disimpulkan bahwa metode bagian, lebih baik dari metode keseluruhan dalam pembelajaran shooting bola basket perbandinganya 12,8% untuk metode bagain dan 8,45% untuk metode keseluruhan. Kata Kunci : Metode bagian, metode keseluruhan, perbandingan&nbsp; pembelajaran Shooting bola basket. Abstract Learning and teachingprocess is combination that begin from planning, holding doing, until rating and step for learning and teaching activity. Or convey learning must has a appropriate metked so that learning can be effective, because learning that will be convey is a basketball shoot learning which has move substance. Need together ness between one and others to reach the better product learning because of that. Researcher compared part practice and whole practice to know the best method for basketball shoot learning. The purposes of this research are 1)is there any different of the result of basketball shooting learning with part practice and whole practice? &nbsp;2) how big the amount of part practice and whole practice method comparison to basketball shooting learning result to 11th grade student of YP SMK Trisila Surabaya. Based on research result and through data calculation using SPSS 20.0 it show that mean difference test, part method and whole practice. tcount &gt; ttable &nbsp;(7.07 &gt;1,69), so Ha can be accepted if tcount &gt; ttable, Ho is rejected. And from table 4.4 above it can give explanation that from the maen calculation result of whole method show that tcount &gt; ttable (4.25 &gt; 1.69), so Ha is accepted. From the hypothesis test above, it can be said that there is significant effect on basketball shooting learning result improvement whether on part practice method and whole practice method to students of YP SMK Trisila Surabaya, student&rsquo;s pretest and posttest of part and whole practice application. With those calculation results it can be known that part practice was able to improve learning results as big as 12.8%. while whole practice method can improve learning results as big as 8.45%. From data above, it can be conclude that part method, was better than whole method on basketball shooting learning whereas the comparison was 12.8% for part method and 8.45% for whole method. Keywords : part method, whole method, basketball shooting learning comparison