Why people stay: decision-making in situations of forced displacement and options for humanitarian aid and development cooperation

The proportion of affected populations who flee violent conflict is much smaller than is widely assumed. Many decide to remain in the conflict zones. They are often referred to as stayees. Three groups can be identified. Some people stay voluntarily. Others do so involuntarily, for example because they lack the resources to flee or because violent actors restrict their freedom of movement. Another group acquiesce to their immobility. Little is known about stayees, their needs and the reasons for their im­mobility. But several factors relevant to their decision-making can be identified. These include type of conflict, type of violence and personal situation. Whether they remain voluntarily or involuntarily, stayees employ sur­vival strategies including collaboration, neutrality, protest and resistance. Knowledge about stayees and their survival strategies is important for humanitarian aid and development actors. Only if they are well informed can they align their activities with actual needs and provide meaningful support to people living in and with violent conflicts. It is therefore essential to consider the entire spectrum of (im)mobility and to understand this expanded perspective as a positive - without neglecting the forcibly displaced. The agency of civilians in violent conflicts needs to be recognised and they must be protected from abuse and exploitation by aid workers (do-no-harm principle). Finally, stayees must be systematically included in all post-conflict initiatives supporting vol­untary return and reintegration. (author's abstract

Predicting voluntary forage intake of supplemented beef cattle

A major priority of beef cattle production is to meet animal nutrient requirements in order to achieve a desired level of productivity. Accurately predicting voluntary forage intake (VFI) is necessary to accurately predict the total nutrient intake of grazing or forage-fed beef cattle that are also supplemented with other sources of nutrients. Therefore, the objectives of this experiment were to utilize data from published literature to 1) identify factors that explain variation in VFI, and 2) develop and validate one or more mathematical models that predict VFI or total nutrient intake of grazing or forage-fed and supplemented beef cattle. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to retrieve experimental means (n=609) and descriptive information from 131 feeding trials that measured VFI and supplement intake. Simple regressions identified 43 continuous and 7 categorical variables that were related (P \u3c 0.05) to forage DMI. Following randomization, 70% of published observations were used to develop predictive models, while the remaining 30% were used for validation. Categorical explanatory variables used to predict forage or total dry matter (DM) intake (DMI) included forage classification, forage harvest method, forage stem length, cattle production stage, and supplement feeding frequency, while continuous explanatory variables included shrunk body weight (BW), supplement neutral detergent fiber (NDF) intake (NDFI), supplement hemicellulose (HEM) intake (HEMI), supplement crude protein (CP) intake (CPI), forage CP content, forage NDF content, and forage HEM content, where supplement intake information was expressed in kg x hd-1 x d-1 and forage nutrient content was expressed as a % of forage DM. Development equations explained 70% (RMSE = 1.31; P \u3c 0.0001) and 77% (RMSE = 1.31; P \u3c 0.0001) of the variation in forage and total DMI, respectively. When applied to the validation dataset, these equations explained approximately 68% (RMSE = 1.32; P \u3c 0.0001) and 72% (RMSE = 1.31; P \u3c 0.0001) of the variation in forage and total DMI, respectively. These models explained a substantial portion of the variation in forage and total DMI, and therefore can be used in production systems to aid in predicting total DMI

A Proof of a Conjecture by Mecke for STIT tessellations

The STIT tessellation process was introduced and examined by Mecke, Nagel and Wei{\ss}; many of its main characteristics are contained in a paper published by Nagel and Wei{\ss} in 2005. In a paper published in 2010, Mecke introduced another process in discrete time. With a geometric distribution whose parameter depends on the time, he reaches a continuous-time model. In his Conjecture 3, he assumed this continuous-time model to be equivalent to STIT. In the present paper, that conjecture is proven. An interesting relation arises to a continuous-time version of the equally-likely model classified by Cowan in 2010. This will also clarify how Mecke's model works as a process in continuous time.Comment: 25 page