Individual Responses to Business Tendency Surveys and the Forecasting of Manufacturing Production

We compare the performances of balances of opinion to those of indicators introduced by Mitchell, Smith and Weale for the one-quarter forecasting of the manufacturing production growth rate. These indicators take into account the heterogeneity of the response behaviours of the entrepreneurs taking part in the Business Tendency Survey. The responses which are the most tightly linked to the overall fluctuations of manufactured production contribute to the variability of these indicators to a larger extent than the responses of the other surveyed. The application of Mitchell, Smith and Weale to British and German data seems to suggest that these indicators perform better in short-term forecasting than the balances of opinion, but their application to Swedish and Portuguese data suggests not. In our study carried out using French data, their predictive performances turn out to be inferior or, at best, equivalent to those of the balances of opinion.Business Tendency Surveys, Quantification, Dis-Aggregate Indicators, Short-Term Forecasting

Nonparametric Forecasting of the Manufacturing Output Growth with Firm-level Survey Data

International audienceA large majority of summary indicators derived from the in- dividual responses to qualitative Business Tendency Survey questions (which are mostly three-modality questions) result from standard aggregation and quantification methods. This is typically the case for the indicators called balances of opin- ion, which are the most currently used in short term analysis and considered by forecasters as explanatory variables in lin- ear models. In the present paper, we discuss a new statistical approach to forecast the manufacturing growth from firm- survey responses. We base our predictions on a forecasting algorithm inspired by the random forest regression method, which is known to enjoy good prediction properties. Our al- gorithm exploits the heterogeneity of the survey responses, works fast, is robust to noise and allows the treatment of missing values. Starting from a real application on a French dataset related to the manufacturing sector, this procedure appears as a competitive method compared with traditional competing algorithms

Nonparametric Forecasting of the Manufacturing Output Growth with Firm-level Survey Data

A large majority of summary indicators derived from the individual responses to qualitative Business Tendency Surveys (which are mostly three-modality questions) result from standard aggregation and quantification methods. This is typically the case for the indicators called balances of opinion, which are currently used in short term analysis and considered by forecasters as explanatory variables in many models. In the present paper, we discuss a new statistical approach to forecast the manufacturing growth from firm-survey responses. We base our predictions on a forecasting algorithm inspired by the random forest regression method, which is known to enjoy good prediction properties. Our algorithm exploits the heterogeneity of the survey responses, works fast, is robust to noise and allows for the treatment of missing values. Starting from a real application on a French dataset related to the manufacturing sector, this procedure appears as a competitive method compared with traditional algorithms.Business Tendency Surveys, balance of opinion, short-term forecasting, manufactured production, k-nearest neighbor regression, random forecasts

Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France : l'approche VAR structurel

To measure the effectiveness of fiscal policy in France, we estimate a structural VAR inspired by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). Consistently with most large macroeconometric models, our findings show the macroeconomic effectiveness of a structural increase in public spending in the short run (multiplier close to 1.4), which – beyond its mechanical impact on aggregate demand – stimulates private consumption and investment. Similarly, the estimated effect of a structural increase in taxes on output is negative, mainly because of a decrease in private consumption ; however, this response is small (multiplier close to only -0.1) and significant only in the very short run, although the result depends on the specific tax examined.Afin d’évaluer l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire en France, on s’inspire de l'approche VAR structurel de Blanchard et Perotti (2002). Conformément aux modèles keynésiens, le papier atteste l’efficacité macroéconomique à court terme d’une hausse structurelle de la dépense publique en France (multiplicateur proche de 1,4) qui, au-delà de son impact mécanique sur la demande globale, stimule la consommation et l’investissement privés. De même, l’effet estimé sur l’activité d’une hausse structurelle des recettes publiques est négatif, en raison essentiellement de la contraction de la consommation privée ; cependant, cette réponse est faible (multiplicateur proche de -0,1 seulement) et n’est significative qu’à très court terme, même si ce résultat varie selon le type de recettes considéré.Girard Elie, Biau Olivier. Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France : l'approche VAR structurel. In: Économie & prévision, n°169-171, 2005-3-5. pp. 1-23

Résultats à moyen terme de la prothèse massive TORNIER® dans la reconstruction de l'extremité distale du fémur après exérèse tumorale

LE KREMLIN-B.- PARIS 11-BU Méd (940432101) / SudocSudocFranceF

Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France. L'approche var structurel

In order to estimate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in France, we estimate a structural var inspired by Blanchard and Perotti [2002]. In accordance with most large macroeconometric models, the paper testifies to the macroeconomic effectiveness of a structural increase in public spending in the short run (multiplier close to 1.4) which, beyond its mechanical impact on aggregate demand, stimulates private consumption and investment. In the same way, the estimated effect of a structural increase in taxes on output is negative, mainly because of a decrease in private consumption; however, this response is small (multiplier close to ?0.1 only) and significant only in the very short run, even if this result depends on the specific tax under consideration.

Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de conjoncture et prévision de la production manufacturière

Individuelle Antworten auf die Konjunkturerhebungen und Vorausschätzung der Produktion im verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Wir vergleichen die Performance der Meinungssalden und der Indikatoren, die Mitchell, Smith und Weale zur vierteljährlichen Vorausschätzung des Produktionszuwachses im verarbeitenden Gewerbe vorgeschlagen haben. Als Quellen dienen die Erhebung über die Konjunktur und die Perspektiven der Industrie und die vom INSEE veröffentlichten vierteljährlichen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen.Individual Responses to Business Tendency Surveys and the Forecasting of Manufacturing Production. We compare the performances of balances of opinion to those of indicators introduced by Mitchell, Smith and Weale for the one-quarter forecasting of the manufacturing production growth rate. The sources used are the Business Tendency Survey in industry and the quarterly accounts published by INSEE. The indicators relate to answers given by the production units questioned about their past and expected production Unlike the balances of opinion, the indicators proposed by Mitchell, Smith and Weale take into account the heterogeneity of the response behaviours of the entrepre- neurs taking part in the Business Tendency Survey. The responses of entrepreneurs which are the most tightly linked to the overall fl uctuations of manufactured production contribute to the variability of these indicators to a larger extent than the responses of the other surveyed. Does this specifi c feature of these indicators enable the latter to perform better in short-term forecasting than more classic indicators, such as the balance of opinion? The application of Mitchell, Smith and Weale to British and German data seems to suggest that this is the case, but their application to Swedish and Portuguese data suggests not. In our study carried out using French data, the predictive performances of the Mitchell, Smith and Weale indicators turn out to be inferior or, at best, equivalent to those of the balances of opinion, depending on the models used. This result seems robust due to both the large size of the French panel and the evaluation method used, the predictive qualities of the indicators being tested outside of their estimation period.Nous comparons les performances de soldes d'opinion et d'indicateurs proposés par Mitchell, Smith et Weale pour la prévision à un trimestre du taux de croissance de la production manufacturière. Les sources utilisées sont l'enquête sur la situation et les perspectives dans l'industrie et les comptes trimestriels publiés par l'Insee. Les indicateurs se réfèrent aux questions portant sur les productions passée et prévue des unités de production enquêtées. Contrairement aux soldes d'opinion, les indicateurs de Mitchell, Smith et Weale ont comme particularité de tenir compte de l'hétérogénéité des comportements de réponse des entrepreneurs à l'enquête de conjoncture. Les réponses des entrepreneurs qui sont les plus en phase avec le taux de croissance de la production manufacturière sont celles qui contribuent le plus à la variabilité de ces indicateurs. Il s'agit de vérifier si cette propriété se traduit par une capacité prédictive supérieure à celle d'indicateurs plus classiques, comme le solde d'opinion. Les applications de Mitchell, Smith et Weale sur des données britanniques et allemandes le suggèrent, mais pas leurs applications sur des données suédoises et portugaises. Dans cette étude effectuée sur des données françaises, les performances prédictives des indicateurs de Mitchell, Smith et Weale s'avèrent inférieures ou, au mieux, équivalentes à celles des soldes d'opinion, selon les modèles utilisés. Ce résultat paraît robuste en raison de la grande taille du panel de données françaises et de la méthode d'évaluation des indicateurs qui est retenue, les qualités prédictives de ces derniers étant testées en dehors de leur période d'estimation.Respuestas individuales a las encuestas de coyuntura y previsión de la producción manufacturera. Hemos comparado los resultados de saldos de opinión y los indicadores propuestos por Mitchell, Smith y Weale para la previsión a un trimestre de la tasa de crecimiento de la producción manufacturera. Las fuentes utilizadas son la encuesta sobre la situación y las perspectivas en la industria y las cuentas trimestrales publicadas por el Insee. Los indicadores se refi eren a las cuestiones relativas a la producción pasada y prevista de las unidades de producción encuestadas.Biau Olivier, Erkel-Rousse Hélène, Ferrari Nicolas. Réponses individuelles aux enquêtes de conjoncture et prévision de la production manufacturière. In: Economie et statistique, n°395-396, 2006. pp. 91-116

Phase I/II study testing the combination of AGuIX nanoparticles with radiochemotherapy and concomitant temozolomide in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma (NANO-GBM trial protocol)

Abstract Background Despite standard treatments including chemoradiotherapy with temozolomide (TMZ) (STUPP protocol), the prognosis of glioblastoma patients remains poor. AGuIX nanoparticles have a high radiosensitizing potential, a selective and long-lasting accumulation in tumors and a rapid renal elimination. Their therapeutic effect has been proven in vivo on several tumor models, including glioblastoma with a potential synergetic effect when combined with TMZ based chemoradiotherapy, and they are currently evaluated in 4 ongoing Phase Ib and II clinical trials in 4 indications (brain metastases, lung, pancreatic and cervix cancers) (> 100 patients received AGuIX). Thus, they could offer new perspectives for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. The aim of this study is to determine the recommended dose of AGuIX as a radiosensitizer in combination with radiotherapy and TMZ during the concurrent radio-chemotherapy period for phase II (RP2D) and to estimate the efficacy of the combination. Methods NANO-GBM is a multicenter, phase I/II, randomized, open-label, non-comparative, therapeutic trial. According to a dose escalation scheme driven by a TITE-CRM design, 3 dose levels of AGuIX (50, 75 and 100 mg/kg) will be tested in phase I added to standard concomitant radio-chemotherapy. Patients with grade IV glioblastoma, not operated or partially operated, with a KPS ≥ 70% will be eligible for the study. The primary endpoints are i) for phase I, the RP2D of AGuIX, with DLT defined as any grade 3–4 NCI-CTCAE toxicity and ii) for phase II, the 6-month progression-free survival rate. The pharmacokinetics, distribution of nanoparticles, tolerance of the combination, neurological status, overall survival (median, 6-month and 12-month rates), response to treatment, and progression-free survival (median and 12-month rates) will be assessed as secondary objectives. Maximum sixty-six patients are expected to be recruited in the study from 6 sites. Discussion The use of AGuIX nanoparticles could allow to overpass the radioresistance to the reference treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastomas that have the poorest prognosis (incomplete resection or biopsy only). Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04881032 , registered on April 30, 2021. Identifier with the French National Agency for the Safety of Medicines and Health Products (ANSM): N°Eudra CT 2020-004552-15. Protocol: version 3, 23 May 2022