Exercise Echocardiography in Asymptomatic HCM Exercise Capacity, and Not LV Outflow Tract Gradient Predicts Long-Term Outcomes

ObjectivesThis study sought to assess long-term outcomes in asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) who underwent exercise echocardiography, without invasive therapies for relief of left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) obstruction.BackgroundMany HCM patients present with LVOT obstruction, mitral regurgitation (MR), and diastolic dysfunction, often requiring invasive therapies for symptomatic relief. However, a significant proportion of truly asymptomatic patients can be closely monitored. In HCM patients, exercise echocardiography has been shown to be a useful assessment of functional capacity and risk stratification.MethodsWe included 426 HCM patients (44 ± 14 years; 78% men) undergoing exercise echocardiography, excluding hypertensive heart disease of elderly, ejection fraction <50% and invasive therapy (myectomy or alcohol ablation) during follow-up. Clinical, echocardiographic (LV thickness, LVOT gradient, and MR) and exercise variables (percent of age-sex predicted metabolic equivalents [METs] and heart rate recovery [HRR] at 1 min post-exercise) were recorded. A composite endpoint of death, appropriate internal defibrillator discharge, and admission for congestive heart failure was recorded.ResultsPatients were asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic on history, but 82% of patients achieved <100% of age-sex predicted METs, and 43% had ≥II+ post-stress MR. The mean LV septal thickness, post-exercise LVOT gradient, and HRR were 2.0 ± 0.5 cm, 62 ± 47 mm Hg, and 31 ± 14 beats/min, respectively. During a mean follow-up of 8.7 ± 3 years, there were 52 events (12%). Patients achieving >100% of age-sex predicted METs had 1% event rate versus 12% in those achieving <85%. On stepwise multivariate survival analysis, percent of age-sex predicted METs (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64 to 0.90), abnormal HRR (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.82 to 0.97), and atrial fibrillation (HR: 2.73; 95% CI: 1.30 to 5.74) (overall, p < 0.001) independently predicted outcomes.ConclusionsIn asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic HCM patients, exercise stress testing provides excellent risk stratification, with a low event rate in patients achieving >100% of predicted METs

A new prediction model for ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

Aims Arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is characterized by ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of incident VA/SCD in ARVC patients.Methods and results Five hundred and twenty-eight patients with a definite diagnosis and no history of sustained VAs/SCD at baseline, aged 38.2 +/- 15.5 years, 44.7% male, were enrolled from five registries in North America and Europe. Over 4.83 (interquartile range 2.44-9.33) years of follow-up, 146 (27.7%) experienced sustained VA, defined as SCD, aborted SCD, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A prediction model estimating annual VA risk was developed using Cox regression with internal validation. Eight potential predictors were pre-specified: age, sex, cardiac syncope in the prior 6 months, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, number of premature ventricular complexes in 24 h, number of leads with T-wave inversion, and right and left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). All except LVEF were retained in the final model. The model accurately distinguished patients with and without events, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.81] and minimal over-optimism [calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.95)]. By decision curve analysis, the clinical benefit of the model was superior to a current consensus-based ICD placement algorithm with a 20.6% reduction of ICD placements with the same proportion of protected patients (P &lt;0.001).Conclusion Using the largest cohort of patients with ARVC and no prior VA, a prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was devised to estimate VA risk and guide decisions regarding primary prevention ICDs (www.arvcrisk.com).</p

Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: A Multinational Collaboration

BACKGROUND: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with ventricular arrhythmias (VA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). A model was recently developed to predict incident sustained VA in patients with ARVC. However, since this outcome may overestimate the risk for SCD, we aimed to specifically predict life-threatening VA (LTVA) as a closer surrogate for SCD. METHODS: We assembled a retrospective cohort of definite ARVC cases from 15 centers in North America and Europe. Association of 8 prespecified clinical predictors with LTVA (SCD, aborted SCD, sustained, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia >250 beats per minute) in follow-up was assessed by Cox regression with backward selection. Candidate variables included age, sex, prior sustained VA (≥30s, hemodynamically unstable, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia; or aborted SCD), syncope, 24-hour premature ventricular complexes count, the number of anterior and inferior leads with T-wave inversion, left and right ventricular ejection fraction. The resulting model was internally validated using bootstrapping. RESULTS: A total of 864 patients with definite ARVC (40±16 years; 53% male) were included. Over 5.75 years (interquartile range, 2.77-10.58) of follow-up, 93 (10.8%) patients experienced LTVA including 15 with SCD/aborted SCD (1.7%). Of the 8 prespecified clinical predictors, only 4 (younger age, male sex, premature ventricular complex count, and number of leads with T-wave inversion) were associated with LTVA. Notably, prior sustained VA did not predict subsequent LTVA (P=0.850). A model including only these 4 predictors had an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80) and calibration slope of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98) indicating minimal over-optimism. CONCLUSIO

A new prediction model for ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is characterized by ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of incident VA/SCD in ARVC patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five hundred and twenty-eight patients with a definite diagnosis and no history of sustained VAs/SCD at baseline, aged 38.2 ± 15.5 years, 44.7% male, were enrolled from five registries in North America and Europe. Over 4.83 (interquartile range 2.44-9.33) years of follow-up, 146 (27.7%) experienced sustained VA, defined as SCD, aborted SCD, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A prediction model estimating annual VA risk was developed using Cox regression with internal validation. Eight potential predictors were pre-specified: age, sex, cardiac syncope in the prior 6 months, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, number of premature ventricular complexes in 24 h, number of leads with T-wave inversion, and right and left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). All except LVEF were retained in the final model. The model accurately distinguished patients with and without events, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.81] and minimal over-optimism [calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.95)]. By decision curve analysis, the clinical benefit of the model was superior to a current consensus-based ICD placement algorithm with a 20.6% reduction of ICD placements with the same proportion of protected patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Using the largest cohort of patients with ARVC and no prior VA, a prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was devised to estimate VA risk and guide decisions regarding primary prevention ICDs (www.arvcrisk.com)

Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: A Multinational Collaboration

BACKGROUND Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with ventricular arrhythmias (VA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). A model was recently developed to predict incident sustained VA in patients with ARVC. However, since this outcome may overestimate the risk for SCD, we aimed to specifically predict life-threatening VA (LTVA) as a closer surrogate for SCD. METHODS We assembled a retrospective cohort of definite ARVC cases from 15 centers in North America and Europe. Association of 8 prespecified clinical predictors with LTVA (SCD, aborted SCD, sustained, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia >250 beats per minute) in follow-up was assessed by Cox regression with backward selection. Candidate variables included age, sex, prior sustained VA (≥30s, hemodynamically unstable, or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia; or aborted SCD), syncope, 24-hour premature ventricular complexes count, the number of anterior and inferior leads with T-wave inversion, left and right ventricular ejection fraction. The resulting model was internally validated using bootstrapping. RESULTS A total of 864 patients with definite ARVC (40±16 years; 53% male) were included. Over 5.75 years (interquartile range, 2.77-10.58) of follow-up, 93 (10.8%) patients experienced LTVA including 15 with SCD/aborted SCD (1.7%). Of the 8 prespecified clinical predictors, only 4 (younger age, male sex, premature ventricular complex count, and number of leads with T-wave inversion) were associated with LTVA. Notably, prior sustained VA did not predict subsequent LTVA (P=0.850). A model including only these 4 predictors had an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80) and calibration slope of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98) indicating minimal over-optimism. CONCLUSIONS LTVA events in patients with ARVC can be predicted by a novel simple prediction model using only 4 clinical predictors. Prior sustained VA and the extent of functional heart disease are not associated with subsequent LTVA events

Impact of Weight Gain on Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Background The long‐term impact of weight gain (WG) on cardiovascular outcomes among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. Methods and Results We studied 62 871 (mean age, 72±12, 43% women) adult patients with AF evaluated at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center between January 1, 2010, and May 13, 2021. Serial body mass index, risk factors, comorbidities, and subsequent death and hospitalization were ascertained and stratified according to percentage WG (≥0% to <5%, ≥5% to <10%, and ≥10%). Over 4.9±3.19 years of follow‐up, 27 114 (43%) patients gained weight (61%, ≥0% to <5%; 23%, ≥5% to <10%; 16%, ≥10%). Patients with progressive WG were incrementally younger (P<0.001) women (40%, 42%, and 47%) with lower median household income (P=0.002) and active smoking (8%, 13% and 13%), and they were less likely to be on a non–vitamin K oral anticoagulant (39%, 37%, and 32%). WG was incrementally associated with a significant increase in risk of hospitalization for AF (≥10% WG; hazard ratio [HR], 1.2 [95% CI, 1.2–1.3]; P<0.0001), heart failure (≥10% WG; HR, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.3–1.6]; P<0.001; ≥5% to <10% WG; HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.1–1.2]; P<0.001), myocardial infarction (≥10% WG; HR, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.3–1.6]; P<0.001) and all‐cause stroke (4.2%, 4.3%, and 5.6%) despite significantly lower mean CHADS2Vasc score (2.9±1.7, 2.7±1.6, and 2.7±1.7). Patients with more WG were significantly more likely to receive cardiac and electrophysiologic interventions. Conclusions Among patients with AF, WG is incrementally associated with increased hospitalization for cardiovascular causes, particularly heart failure, stroke, myocardial infarction, and AF

Heart Failure is Common and Under-Recognized in Patients with Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy/Dysplasia

Background: Heart failure (HF) prevalence in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) varies depending on study cohort and is not well characterized. This study sought to determine prevalence and predictors of HF in ARVC/D. Methods and Results: Clinical HF, defined as at least 1 HF sign or symptom, was retrospectively adjudicated for 289 patients meeting ARVC/D Task Force Criteria. HF was present in 142 patients (49%): 113 had isolated RV involvement and 29 had evidence of LV dysfunction. Average age of HF onset was 40±14 years. Most commonly reported symptoms were exertional dyspnea (78%) and fatigue (73%). Only 40% (n=57/142) had signs of volume overload. Left-sided HF signs were rare. Patients with clinical HF before ARVC/D diagnosis (n=31) were older (P=0.005) and met fewer Task Force Criteria (P=0.013) than those who developed HF after ARVC/D presentation. Female sex (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.21–4.01; P=0.01) and lateral precordial T-wave inversions (odds ratio, 9.87; 95% confidence interval, 1.07–91.1; P=0.043) were associated with increased odds of HF. Additionally, patients with symptomatic LV dysfunction had higher odds of lateral precordial T-wave inversions (odds ratio, 18.4; 95% confidence interval, 2.92–116.18; P=0.002). Patients with HF were more likely to undergo heart transplantation (15/142 versus 1/147; P<0.001) or die during study follow-up period (7 versus 0; P=0.007). Conclusions: HF symptoms, especially exertional dyspnea, are common in ARVC/D; yet, classic left-sided signs are typically absent and less than half have evidence of volume overload. Given the unique predominately right-sided phenotype, a large portion of patients with HF may be under-recognized

Heart Failure is Common and Under-Recognized in Patients with Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy/Dysplasia

Background: Heart failure (HF) prevalence in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) varies depending on study cohort and is not well characterized. This study sought to determine prevalence and predictors of HF in ARVC/D. Methods and Results: Clinical HF, defined as at least 1 HF sign or symptom, was retrospectively adjudicated for 289 patients meeting ARVC/D Task Force Criteria. HF was present in 142 patients (49%): 113 had isolated RV involvement and 29 had evidence of LV dysfunction. Average age of HF onset was 40±14 years. Most commonly reported symptoms were exertional dyspnea (78%) and fatigue (73%). Only 40% (n=57/142) had signs of volume overload. Left-sided HF signs were rare. Patients with clinical HF before ARVC/D diagnosis (n=31) were older (P=0.005) and met fewer Task Force Criteria (P=0.013) than those who developed HF after ARVC/D presentation. Female sex (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.21–4.01; P=0.01) and lateral precordial T-wave inversions (odds ratio, 9.87; 95% confidence interval, 1.07–91.1; P=0.043) were associated with increased odds of HF. Additionally, patients with symptomatic LV dysfunction had higher odds of lateral precordial T-wave inversions (odds ratio, 18.4; 95% confidence interval, 2.92–116.18; P=0.002). Patients with HF were more likely to undergo heart transplantation (15/142 versus 1/147; P<0.001) or die during study follow-up period (7 versus 0; P=0.007). Conclusions: HF symptoms, especially exertional dyspnea, are common in ARVC/D; yet, classic left-sided signs are typically absent and less than half have evidence of volume overload. Given the unique predominately right-sided phenotype, a large portion of patients with HF may be under-recognized