Insights gained from conversations with labor market decision makers

I describe insights into wage dynamics and downward wage rigidity obtained from more than two hundred interviews with businesspeople, labor leaders, and various labor market intermediaries and made in the early 1990s in the Northeast of the United States. I explain the morale explanation for downward rigidity of the pay of existing employees and discuss what morale is, why businesspeople care about it, and why pay cuts damage it. I discuss the origin and nature of pay structures internal to an establishment, the relation between pay at different establishments, and why firms tend to lay off workers rather than cut pay. The findings of the study to be discussed are reported in detail in Truman Bewley, Why Wages Don’t Fall during a Recession. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press (1999). JEL Classification: E3, J3, J5wage determination, wage rigidity

Knightian Decision Theory and Econometric Inference

In this paper I attempt to reconcile the apparent definiteness of econometric practice with the vagueness of subjective probabilities assumed in Knightian decision theory. I argue that some standard uses of classical inference are Knightian in spirit, even though the formal justification of classical methods uses the frequentist notion of probability. Classical confidence regions may be viewed as defining sets of posterior means corresponding to a standardized set of prior distributions. Tests of the null hypothesis that a parameter equals a particular value may be viewed as determining whether it is rational, from a Knightian point of view, to act as if the null hypothesis were true. This interpretation of the tests seems to correspond fairly well to practice and to the informal story told by classical statisticians. Hence, one could argue that to this extent classical statisticians act unconsciously as Knightian decision makers. If one accepts this argument, then it is of interest to know what level of uncertainty aversion corresponds to the popular 5% significance level

Insights gained from conversations with labor market decision makers

I describe insights into wage dynamics and downward wage rigidity obtained from more than two hundred interviews with businesspeople, labor leaders, and various labor market intermediaries and made in the early 1990s in the Northeast of the United States. I explain the morale explanation for downward rigidity of the pay of existing employees and discuss what morale is, why businesspeople care about it, and why pay cuts damage it. I discuss the origin and nature of pay structures internal to an establishment, the relation between pay at different establishments, and why firms tend to lay off workers rather than cut pay. The findings of the study to be discussed are reported in detail in Truman Bewley, Why Wages Don’t Fall during a Recession. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press (1999)

Knightian Decision Theory, Part II: Intertemporal Problems

The theory of choice proposed in “Knightian Decision Theory, Part I” is here applied to intertemporal problems. An analogue of dynamic programming called maxmin programming is developed. Also, it is shown that detailed contingent planning may not be needed in order to achieve maximality, a program being maximal if no other program is preferred to it. In certain circumstances, a maximal program can be achieved by making a finite calculation in each period. This calculation ignores distant future states and could also ignore unlikely contingencies. A decision maker making such calculations would behave much like a satisficer

An Interview Study of Pricing

Why do the prices of some products change little during business cycles while the prices of others vary wildly and tend to rise during economic booms and fall during recessions? In particular, why do the prices of some products not fall or fall only a little when the demand for them declines dramatically. It is not surprising that in highly competitive industries prices fluctuate with shifts in demand and supply, but what explains the stability of prices in markets where firms have more direct control of prices? These questions are central to an understanding of business cycles, and good answers would also help us predict how prices will behave

Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1

A theory of choice under uncertainty is proposed which removes the completeness assumption from the Anscombe-Aumann formulation of Savage’s theory and introduces an inertia assumption. The inertia assumption is that there is such a thing as the status quo and an alternative is accepted only if it is preferred to the status quo. This theory is one way of giving rigorous expression to Frank Knight’s distinction between risk and uncertainty

Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1

A theory of choice under uncertainty is proposed which removes the completeness assumption from the Anscombe-Aumann formulation of Savage's theory and introduces an inertia assumption. The inertia assumption is that there is such a thing as the status quo and an alternative is accepted only if it is preferred to the status quo. This theory is one way of giving rigorous expression to Frank Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty.Decision theory, Knight, theory of choice, uncertainty, inertia assumption