24 research outputs found
Percentage reduction in all respiratory outcomes associated with targeted vaccination of 2- and 3- year-old children.
<p>Percentage reduction in all respiratory outcomes associated with targeted vaccination of 2- and 3- year-old children.</p
Impact of increased influenza vaccination in 2–3-year-old children on disease burden within the general population: A Bayesian model-based approach
<div><p>Introduction</p><p>During the 2013–2014 influenza season, Public Health England extended routine influenza vaccination to all 2- and 3-year-old children in England. To estimate the impact of this change in policy on influenza-related morbidity and mortality, we developed a disease transmission and surveillance model informed by real-world data.</p><p>Methods</p><p>We combined real-world and literature data sources to construct a model of influenza transmission and surveillance in England. Data were obtained for four influenza seasons, starting with the 2010–2011 season. Bayesian inference was used to estimate model parameters on a season-by-season basis to assess the impact of targeting 2- and 3-year-old children for influenza vaccination. This provided the basis for the construction of counterfactual scenarios comparing vaccination rates of ~2% and ~35% in the 2- and 3- year-old population to estimate reductions in general practitioner (GP) influenza-like-illness (ILI) consultations, respiratory hospitalizations and deaths in the overall population.</p><p>Results</p><p>Our model was able to replicate the main patterns of influenza across the four seasons as observed through laboratory surveillance data. Targeting 2- and 3-year-old children for influenza vaccination resulted in reductions in the general population of between 6.2–9.9% in influenza-attributable GP ILI consultations, 6.1–10.7% in influenza-attributable respiratory hospitalizations, and 5.7–9.4% in influenza-attributable deaths. The decrease in influenza-attributable ILI consultations represents a reduction of between 4.5% and 7.3% across all ILI consultations. The reduction in influenza-attributable respiratory hospitalizations represents a reduction of between 1.2% and 2.3% across all respiratory hospitalizations. Reductions in influenza-attributable respiratory deaths represent a reduction of between 0.9% and 2.4% in overall respiratory deaths.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>This study has provided evidence that extending routine influenza vaccination to all healthy children aged 2 and 3 years old leads to benefits in terms of reduced utilization of healthcare resources and fewer respiratory health outcomes and deaths.</p></div
Strain-specific weekly infections for each season, by age group.
<p>Strain-specific weekly infections for each season, by age group.</p
Estimated percentage reduction in infection rate as a result of targeted vaccination of all 2- and 3-year-old children.
<p>Estimated percentage reduction in infection rate as a result of targeted vaccination of all 2- and 3-year-old children.</p
Model-estimated number of weekly respiratory hospitalizations (grey line) vs observed number of weekly respiratory hospitalizations (blue line).
<p>Model-estimated number of weekly respiratory hospitalizations (grey line) vs observed number of weekly respiratory hospitalizations (blue line).</p
Structure of the inference model.
<p><sup>a</sup>ARTI: acute respiratory tract infections; CPRD: Clinical Practice Research Datalink; HES: Hospital Episode Statistics; ILI: influenza-like-illness; ONS: Office for National Statistics; RCGP: Royal College of General Practitioners.</p
Infection rate by strain for each season in the study; Dominating strain highlighted in bold.
<p>Infection rate by strain for each season in the study; Dominating strain highlighted in bold.</p
Model-estimated number of weekly influenza-like-illness (ILI) consultations (grey line) vs Clinical Practice Research Datalink observed number of weekly ILI consultations (blue line).
<p>Model-estimated number of weekly influenza-like-illness (ILI) consultations (grey line) vs Clinical Practice Research Datalink observed number of weekly ILI consultations (blue line).</p
Influenza-like-illness consultation rates (CPRD and RCGP), all respiratory consultation rates (CPRD), respiratory hospitalization (HES), and respiratory deaths (ONS) data inputs for each season of the model.
<p>CRPD: Clinical Practice Research Datalink; RCGP: Royal College of General Practitioner; HES: Hospital Episode Statistics; ONS: Office for National Statistics.</p