A study of the deep structure of the energy landscape of glassy polystyrene: the exponential distribution of the energy-barriers revealed by high-field Electron Spin Resonance spectroscopy

The reorientation of one small paramagnetic molecule (spin probe) in glassy polystyrene (PS) is studied by high-field Electron Spin Resonance spectroscopy at two different Larmor frequencies (190 and 285 GHz). The exponential distribution of the energy-barriers for the rotational motion of the spin probe is unambigously evidenced at both 240K and 270K. The same shape for the distribution of the energy-barriers of PS was evidenced by the master curves provided by previous mechanical and light scattering studies. The breadth of the energy-barriers distribution of the spin probe is in the range of the estimates of the breadth of the PS energy-barriers distribution. The evidence that the deep structure of the energy landscape of PS exhibits the exponential shape of the energy-barriers distribution agrees with results from extreme-value statistics and the trap model by Bouchaud and coworkers.Comment: Final version in press as Letter to the Editor on J.Phys.:Condensed Matter. Changes in bol

Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part I: Ensemble Mediterranean winds from a Bayesian hierarchical model

A Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) is developed to estimate surface vector wind (SVW) fields and associated uncertainties over the Mediterranean Sea. The BHM–SVW incorporates data-stage inputs from analyses and forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and SVW retrievals from the QuikSCAT data record. The process-model stage of the BHM–SVW is based on a Rayleigh friction equation model for surface winds. Dynamical interpretations of posterior distributions of the BHM–SVW parameters are discussed. Ten realizations from the posterior distribution of the BHM–SVW are used to force the data-assimilation step of an experimental ensemble ocean forecast system for the Mediterranean Sea in order to create a set of ensemble initial conditions. The sequential data-assimilation method of the Mediterranean forecast system (MFS) is adapted to the ensemble implementation. Analyses of sample ensemble initial conditions for a single data-assimilation period in MFS are presented to demonstrate the multivariate impact of the BHM–SVW ensemble generation methodology. Ensemble initial-condition spread is quantified by computing standard deviations of ocean state variable fields over the ten ensemble members. The methodological findings in this article are of two kinds. From the perspective of statistical modelling, the process-model development is more closely related tophysicalbalances than inpreviousworkwithmodels for the SVW.Fromthe ocean forecast perspective, the generation of ocean ensemble initial conditions via BHM is shown to be practical for operational implementation in an ensemble ocean forecast system. Phenomenologically, ensemble spread generated via BHM–SVW occurs on ocean mesoscale time- and space-scales, in close association with strong synoptic-scale wind-forcing events. A companion article describes the impacts of the BHM–SVW ensemble method on the ocean forecast in comparisons with more traditional ensemble methods

Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System response

This article analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) developed in Part I of this series. A new method for ocean ensemble forecasting (OEF), the socalled BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14 day analysis and 10 day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and in the pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared with an ensemble response forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EEPS) surface winds, and with an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived froman ad hoc thermocline intensified random perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread on basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale-intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain, while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean-model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest

Better Nonlinear Models from Noisy Data: Attractors with Maximum Likelihood

A new approach to nonlinear modelling is presented which, by incorporating the global behaviour of the model, lifts shortcomings of both least squares and total least squares parameter estimates. Although ubiquitous in practice, a least squares approach is fundamentally flawed in that it assumes independent, normally distributed (IND) forecast errors: nonlinear models will not yield IND errors even if the noise is IND. A new cost function is obtained via the maximum likelihood principle; superior results are illustrated both for small data sets and infinitely long data streams.Comment: RevTex, 11 pages, 4 figure

A Support Group for Inpatient Abused Adolescents

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75359/1/j.1744-6171.1990.tb00438.x.pd

Ocean Ensemble Forecasting, Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System Response

This paper analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) developed in Part I (Milliff et al., 2009). A new method for Ocean Ensemble Forecasting (OEF), so-called BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14-day analysis and 10-day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared to an ensemble response forced by ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EEPS) surface winds, and to an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived from an ad hoc Thermocline Intensified Random Perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread at the basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest. The BHM-SVW-OEF method offers a practical and objective means for producing short-term forecast spread by modeling surface atmospheric forcing uncertainties that have maximum impact at the ocean mesoscales

A Single Dermatome Clinical Prediction Rule for Independent Walking 1 Year After Spinal Cord Injury

Objective: To derive and validate a simple, accurate CPR to predict future independent walking ability after SCI at the bedside that does not rely on motor scores and is predictive for those initially classified in the middle of the SCI severity spectrum. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Binary variables were derived, indicating degrees of sensation to evaluate predictive value of pinprick and light touch variables across dermatomes. The optimal single sensory modality and dermatome was used to derive our CPR, which was validated on an independent dataset. Setting: Analysis of SCI Model Systems dataset. Participants: Individuals with traumatic SCI. The data of 3679 participants (N=3679) were included with 623 participants comprising the derivation dataset and 3056 comprising the validation dataset. Interventions: Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures: Self-reported ability to walk both indoors and outdoors. Results: Pinprick testing at S1 over lateral heels, within 31 days of SCI, accurately identified future independent walkers 1 year after SCI. Normal pinprick in both lateral heels provided good prognosis, any pinprick sensation in either lateral heel provided fair prognosis, and no sensation provided poor prognosis. This CPR performed satisfactorily in the middle SCI severity subgroup. Conclusions: In this large multi-site study, we derived and validated a simple, accurate CPR using only pinprick sensory testing at lateral heels that predicts future independent walking after SCI

The Advanced LIGO Photon Calibrators

The two interferometers of the Laser Interferometry Gravitaional-wave Observatory (LIGO) recently detected gravitational waves from the mergers of binary black hole systems. Accurate calibration of the output of these detectors was crucial for the observation of these events, and the extraction of parameters of the sources. The principal tools used to calibrate the responses of the second-generation (Advanced) LIGO detectors to gravitational waves are systems based on radiation pressure and referred to as Photon Calibrators. These systems, which were completely redesigned for Advanced LIGO, include several significant upgrades that enable them to meet the calibration requirements of second-generation gravitational wave detectors in the new era of gravitational-wave astronomy. We report on the design, implementation, and operation of these Advanced LIGO Photon Calibrators that are currently providing fiducial displacements on the order of $10^{-18}$ m/$\sqrt{\textrm{Hz}}$ with accuracy and precision of better than 1 %.Comment: 14 pages, 19 figure

Business unusual: collective action against bribery in international business

Collective action initiatives in which governments and companies make anti-corruption commitments have proliferated in recent years. This apparently prosocial behavior defies the logic of collective action and, given that bribery often goes undetected and unpunished, is not easily explained by principal-agent theory. Club theory suggests that the answer lies in the institutional design of anti-corruption clubs: collective action can work as long as membership has high entry costs, members receive selective benefits, and compliance is adequately policed. This article contributes to the debate by examining how these conditions manifest in the case of anti-corruption clubs in the realm of international business, with particular focus on the international dimension of many initiatives. This vertical aspect of institutional design creates a richer, more complex set of reputational and material benefits for members, as well as allowing for more credible and consistent monitoring and enforcement