Validation of a Model for Identification of Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis at High Risk of Decompensation

Background & Aims: It is important to rapidly identify patients with advanced liver disease. Routine tests to assess liver function and fibrosis provide data that can be used to determine patients’ prognoses. We tested the validated the ability of combined data from the ALBI and FIB-4 scoring systems to identify patients with compensated cirrhosis at highest risk for decompensation.Methods: We collected data from 145 patients with compensated cirrhosis (91% Child A cirrhosis and median MELD scores below 8) from a cohort in Nottingham, United Kingdom, followed for a median 4.59 years (development cohort). We collected baseline clinical features and recorded decompensation events. We used these data to develop a model based on liver function (assessed by the ALBI score) and extent of fibrosis (assessed by the FIB-4 index) to determine risk of decompensation. We validated the model in 2 independent external cohorts (1 in Dublin, Ireland and 1 in Menoufia, Egypt) comprising 234 patients.Results: In the development cohort, 19.3% of the patients developed decompensated cirrhosis. Using a combination of ALBI and FIB-4 scores, we developed a model that identified patients at low vs high risk of decompensation (hazard ratio [HR] for decompensation in patients with high risk score was 7.10). When we tested the scoring system in the validation cohorts, the HR for decompensation in patients with a high-risk score was 12.54 in the Ireland cohort and 5.10 in the Egypt cohort.Conclusion: We developed scoring system, based on a combination of ALBI and FIB-4 scores, that identifies patients at risk for liver decompensation. We validated the scoring system in 2 independent international cohorts (Europe and the Middle East), so it appears to apply to diverse populations

A prospective key informant surveillance system to measure maternal mortality – findings from indigenous populations in Jharkhand and Orissa, India

In places with poor vital registration, measurement of maternal mortality and monitoring the impact of interventions on maternal mortality is difficult and seldom undertaken. Mortality ratios are often estimated and policy decisions made without robust evidence. This paper presents a prospective key informant system to measure maternal mortality and the initial findings from the system

Development of pre and post-operative models to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection

Background & Aims Resection is the most widely used potentially curative treatment for patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, recurrence within 2 years occurs in 30–50% of patients, being the major cause of mortality. Herein, we describe 2 models, both based on widely available clinical data, which permit risk of early recurrence to be assessed before and after resection. Methods A total of 3,903 patients undergoing surgical resection with curative intent were recruited from 6 different centres. We built 2 models for early recurrence, 1 using preoperative and 1 using pre and post-operative data, which were internally validated in the Hong Kong cohort. The models were then externally validated in European, Chinese and US cohorts. We developed 2 online calculators to permit easy clinical application. Results Multivariable analysis identified male gender, large tumour size, multinodular tumour, high albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and high serum alpha-fetoprotein as the key parameters related to early recurrence. Using these variables, a preoperative model (ERASL-pre) gave 3 risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS) in the entire cohort – low risk: 2-year RFS 64.8%, intermediate risk: 2-year RFS 42.5% and high risk: 2-year RFS 20.7%. Median survival in each stratum was similar between centres and the discrimination between the 3 strata was enhanced in the post-operative model (ERASL-post) which included 'microvascular invasion'. Conclusions Statistical models that can predict the risk of early HCC recurrence after resection have been developed, extensively validated and shown to be applicable in the international setting. Such models will be valuable in guiding surveillance follow-up and in the design of post-resection adjuvant therapy trials. Lay summary The most effective treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma is surgical removal of the tumour but there is often recurrence. In this large international study, we develop a statistical method that allows clinicians to estimate the risk of recurrence in an individual patient. This facility enhances communication with the patient about the likely success of the treatment and will help in designing clinical trials that aim to find drugs that decrease the risk of recurrence

Impact of disease stage and aetiology on survival in hepatocellular carcinoma::implications for surveillance

Background: Variation in survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been attributed to different aetiologies or disease stages at presentation. While international guidelines recommend surveillance of high-risk groups to permit early diagnosis and curative treatment, the evidence that surveillance decreases disease-specific mortality is weak. Methods: We compared HCC survival figures from Japan (n=1174) and Hong Kong (n=1675) over similar time periods (Japan 2000–2013, Hong Kong, China 2003–2014). The former has an intensive national surveillance programme, while the latter has none. We also analysed changes in survival in Japan over a 50-year period including data from before and after institution of a national HCC surveillance programme. Results: In Japan, over 75% of cases are currently detected by surveillance, whereas in Hong Kong <20% of cases are detected presymptomatically. Median survival was 52 months in Japan and 17.8 months in Hong Kong; this survival advantage persisted after allowance for lead-time bias. Sixty-two per cent of Japanese patients had early disease at diagnosis and 63% received curative treatment. The comparable figures for Hong Kong were 31.7% and 44.1%, respectively. These differences could not be accounted for by disease aetiology, and patients in Hong Kong who were detected at an early stage had a similar survival to the analogous patients in Japan. Conclusions: The variation in survival is largely accounted for by stage at diagnosis, which in turn relates to the intensity of surveillance programmes and the consequent variation in curative therapeutic options

Improved survival prediction and comparison of prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib

Background: The ‘Prediction Of Survival in Advanced Sorafenib-treated HCC’ (PROSASH) model addressed the heterogeneous survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib in clinical trials but requires validation in daily clinical practice. This study aimed to validate, compare and optimize this model for survival prediction. Methods: Patients treated with sorafenib for HCC at five tertiary European centres were retrospectively staged according to the PROSASH model. In addition, the optimized PROSASH-II model was developed using the data of four centres (training set) and tested in an independent dataset. These models for overall survival (OS) were then compared with existing prognostic models. Results: The PROSASH model was validated in 445 patients, showing clear differences between the four risk groups (OS 16.9-4.6 months). A total of 920 patients (n = 615 in training set, n = 305 in validation set) were available to develop PROSASH-II. This optimized model incorporated fewer and less subjective parameters: the serum albumin, bilirubin and alpha-foetoprotein, and macrovascul

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

Exposure to Perfluoroalkyl Substances and Glucose Homeostasis in Youth

Background: Exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a prevalent class of persistent pollutants, may increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. &nbsp; Objective: We examined associations between PFAS exposure and glucose metabolism in youth. &nbsp; Methods: Overweight/obese adolescents from the Study of Latino Adolescents at Risk of Type 2 Diabetes (SOLAR; n=310) participated in annual visits for an average of 3.3&plusmn;2.9y. Generalizability of findings were tested in young adults from the Southern California Children&rsquo;s Health Study (CHS; n=135) who participated in a clinical visit with a similar protocol. At each visit, oral glucose tolerance tests were performed to estimate glucose metabolism and &beta;-cell function via the insulinogenic index. Four PFAS were measured at baseline using liquid chromatography&ndash;high-resolution mass spectrometry; high levels were defined as concentrations &gt;66th percentile. &nbsp; Results: In females from the SOLAR, high perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS) levels (&ge;2.0&thinsp;ng/mL) were associated with the development of dysregulated glucose metabolism beginning in late puberty. The magnitude of these associations increased postpuberty and persisted through 18 years of age. For example, postpuberty, females with high PFHxS levels had 25-mg/dL higher 60-min glucose (95% CI: 12,&thinsp;39mg/dL; p&lt;0.0001), 15-mg/dL higher 2-h glucose (95% CI: 1,&thinsp;28mg/dL; p=0.04), and 25% lower &beta;-cell function (p=0.02) compared with females with low levels. Results were largely consistent in the CHS, where females with elevated PFHxS levels had 26-mg/dL higher 60-min glucose (95% CI: 6.0,&thinsp;46mg/dL; p=0.01) and 19-mg/dL higher 2-h glucose, which did not meet statistical significance (95% CI: &ndash;1,&thinsp;39mg/dL; p=0.08). In males, no consistent associations between PFHxS and glucose metabolism were observed. No consistent associations were observed for other PFAS and glucose metabolism. &nbsp; Discussion: Youth exposure to PFHxS was associated with dysregulated glucose metabolism in females, which may be due to changes in &beta;-cell function. These associations appeared during puberty and were most pronounced postpuberty. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9200" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-ga-action="click_feat_