Transformer Training Strategies for Forecasting Multiple Load Time Series

In the smart grid of the future, accurate load forecasts on the level of individual clients can help to balance supply and demand locally and to prevent grid outages. While the number of monitored clients will increase with the ongoing smart meter rollout, the amount of data per client will always be limited. We evaluate whether a Transformer load forecasting model benefits from a transfer learning strategy, where a global univariate model is trained on the load time series from multiple clients. In experiments with two datasets containing load time series from several hundred clients, we find that the global training strategy is superior to the multivariate and local training strategies used in related work. On average, the global training strategy results in 21.8% and 12.8% lower forecasting errors than the two other strategies, measured across forecasting horizons from one day to one month into the future. A comparison to linear models, multi-layer perceptrons and LSTMs shows that Transformers are effective for load forecasting when they are trained with the global training strategy

Late HDV RNA relapse after peginterferon alpha-based therapy of chronic hepatitis delta

Interferon alpha is the only treatment option for hepatitis delta virus (HDV). Trials investigating the efficacy of pegylated interferon alpha (PEG-IFNa) showed HDV RNA negativity rates of 25-30% 24 weeks after therapy. However, the clinical and virological long-term outcome of HDV-infected patients treated with PEG-IFNa is unknown. We performed a retrospective-prospective follow-up of 77 patients treated for 48 weeks with either PEG-alfa-2a and adefovir (ADV) or either drug alone in the Hep-Net-International-Delta-Hepatitis-Intervention-Study 1 (HIDIT-1) trial. Long-term follow-up data were available for 58 out of 77 patients (75%) with a median time of follow-up of 4.5 (0.5-5.5) years and a median 3 visits per patient. Patients treated with ADV alone received retreatment with PEG-IFNa (48% versus 19%; P = 0.02) more often. Hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) became negative in six PEG-IFNa-treated patients until the end of long-term follow-up (10%). Sixteen patients tested HDV RNA-negative 6 months after PEG-IFNa treatment who were entered in the long-term follow-up study. Out of these, nine individuals tested HDV RNA-positive at least once during further long-term follow-up, with seven patients being HDV RNA-positive at the most recent visit. Clinical endpoints (liver-related death, liver transplantation, hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma) were observed in three PEG-IFNa-treated (8%) and three ADV-treated (14%) patients during posttreatment long-term follow-up with an overall annual event rate of 2.5% (4.9% in cirrhosis). Sequencing confirmed the reappearance of pretreatment virus strains in all cases. Conclusion: Late HDV RNA relapses may occur after PEG-IFNa therapy of hepatitis delta and thus the term sustained virological response should be avoided in HDV infection. The annual posttreatment rate of clinical events in hepatitis delta patients eligible for PEG-IFNa therapy is about 2.5% and 4.9% in patients with cirrhosis.Hep-Net Study House; German Liver Foundation; HepNet e.V.; Integrated Research and Treatment Center Transplantation (IFB-Tx Project 37) [01EO0802]; Hannover Medical School; German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF)Supported by the Hep-Net Study House, the German Liver Foundation, the HepNet e.V. as well as in part by the Integrated Research and Treatment Center Transplantation (IFB-Tx Project 37; Reference No.: 01EO0802), Hannover Medical School, and the German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF

Removal of Hepatitis B virus surface HBsAg and core HBcAg antigens using microbial fuel cells producing electricity from human urine

© 2019, The Author(s). Microbial electrochemical technology is emerging as an alternative way of treating waste and converting this directly to electricity. Intensive research on these systems is ongoing but it currently lacks the evaluation of possible environmental transmission of enteric viruses originating from the waste stream. In this study, for the first time we investigated this aspect by assessing the removal efficiency of hepatitis B core and surface antigens in cascades of continuous flow microbial fuel cells. The log-reduction (LR) of surface antigen (HBsAg) reached a maximum value of 1.86 ± 0.20 (98.6% reduction), which was similar to the open circuit control and degraded regardless of the recorded current. Core antigen (HBcAg) was much more resistant to treatment and the maximal LR was equal to 0.229 ± 0.028 (41.0% reduction). The highest LR rate observed for HBsAg was 4.66 ± 0.19 h−1 and for HBcAg 0.10 ± 0.01 h−1. Regression analysis revealed correlation between hydraulic retention time, power and redox potential on inactivation efficiency, also indicating electroactive behaviour of biofilm in open circuit control through the snorkel-effect. The results indicate that microbial electrochemical technologies may be successfully applied to reduce the risk of environmental transmission of hepatitis B virus but also open up the possibility of testing other viruses for wider implementation

The Novel Immunosuppressive Protein Kinase C Inhibitor Sotrastaurin Has No Pro-Viral Effects on the Replication Cycle of Hepatitis B or C Virus

The pan-protein kinase C (PKC) inhibitor sotrastaurin (AEB071) is a novel immunosuppressant currently in phase II trials for immunosuppression after solid organ transplantation. Besides T-cell activation, PKC affects numerous cellular processes that are potentially important for the replication of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV), major blood-borne pathogens prevalent in solid organ transplant recipients. This study uses state of the art virological assays to assess the direct, non-immune mediated effects of sotrastaurin on HBV and HCV. Most importantly, sotrastaurin had no pro-viral effect on either HBV or HCV. In the presence of high concentrations of sotrastaurin, well above those used clinically and close to levels where cytotoxic effects become detectable, there was a reduction of HCV and HBV replication. This reduction is very likely due to cytotoxic and/or anti-proliferative effects rather than direct anti-viral activity of the drug. Replication cycle stages other than genome replication such as viral cell entry and spread of HCV infection directly between adjacent cells was clearly unaffected by sotrastaurin. These data support the evaluation of sotrastaurin in HBV and/or HCV infected transplant recipients