Financial Crises and Macro-Prudential Policies

Stochastic general equilibrium models of small open economies with occasionally binding financial frictions are capable of mimicking both the business cycles and the crisis events associated with the sudden stop in access to credit markets (Mendoza, 2010). In this paper we study the inefficiencies associated with borrowing decisions in a two-sector small open production economy. We find that this economy is much more likely to display "under-borrowing" rather than "over-borrowing" in normal times. As a result, macro-prudential policies (i.e. Tobin taxes or economy-wide controls on capital inflows) are costly in welfare terms in our economy. Moreover, we show that macro-prudential policies aimed at minimizing the probability of the crisis event might be welfare-reducing in production economies. Our analysis shows that there is a much larger scope for welfare gains from policy interventions during financial crises. That is to say that, within our modeling approach, ex post or crisis-management policies dominate ex ante or macro-prudential ones.Capital controls, crises, financial frictions, macro prudential policies, bailouts,overborrowing

Revisiting Overborrowing and its Policy Implications

This paper analyzes quantitatively the extent to which there is overborrowing (i.e., inefficient borrowing) in a business cycle model for emerging market economies with production and an occasionally binding credit constraint. The main finding of the analysis is that overborrowing is not a robust feature of this class of model economies: it depends on the structure of the economy and its parametrization. Specifically, we find underborrowing in a production economy with our baseline calibration, but overborrowing with more impatient agents and more volatile shocks. Endowment economies display overborrowing regardless of parameter values, but they do not allow for policy intervention when the constraint binds (in crisis times). Quantitatively, the welfare gains from implementing the constrained efficient allocation are always larger near crisis times than in normal

Rational power series, sequential codes and periodicity of sequences

AbstractLet R be a commutative ring. A power series f∈R[[x]] with (eventually) periodic coefficients is rational. We show that the converse holds if and only if R is an integral extension over Zm for some positive integer m. Let F be a field. We prove the equivalence between two versions of rationality in F[[x1,…,xn]]. We extend Kronecker’s criterion for rationality in F[[x]] to F[[x1,…,xn]]. We introduce the notion of sequential code which is a natural generalization of cyclic and even constacyclic codes over a (not necessarily finite) field. A truncation of a cyclic code over F is both left and right sequential (bisequential). We prove that the converse holds if and only if F is algebraic over Fp for some prime p. Finally, we show that all sequential codes are obtained by a simple and explicit construction

Financial crises and macro-prudential policies

Stochastic general equilibrium models of small open economies with occasionally binding financial frictions are capable of mimicking both the business cycles and the crisis events associated with the sudden stop in access to credit markets (Mendoza, 2010). In this paper we study the inefficiencies associated with borrowing decisions in a two-sector small open production economy. We find that this economy is much more likely to display 'under-borrowing' rather than 'over-borrowing' in normal times. As a result, macro-prudential policies (i.e. Tobin taxes or economy-wide controls on capital inflows) are costly in welfare terms in our economy. Moreover, we show that macro-prudential policies aimed at minimizing the probability of the crisis event might be welfare-reducing in production economies. Our analysis shows that there is a much larger scope for welfare gains from policy interventions during financial crises. That is to say that, within our modeling approach, ex post or crisis-management policies dominate ex ante or macro-prudential ones

The use of system dynamics analysis and modeling techniques to explore policy levers in the fight against Middle Eastern terrorist groups

MBA Professional ReportThe objective of this project is to use analysis and modeling techniques of Systems Dynamics to capture the causal relationships of Middle Eastern groups' terrorist activities against the U.S. based on their ideological drivers, as well as the effect of U.S. policies that create dynamics and affect performance and outcomes. The main focus of this analysis is the terrorist groups' human resources. The hypothesis is that Middle Eastern terrorism against the U.S. is affected by the U.S. level of military presence and/or investment in the Middle Eastern nations. A considerable and lasting reduction in fatalities originated by Middle Eastern groups' terrorist attacks against the U.S. can be achieved through a policy that reduces both the human resources available to terrorist groups and their attack capability (level of sophistication). The study covers the implications of this resource reduction policy, which may include incremental military investment, defection motivators, antiterrorism and the use of counter-terrorism operations. These operations will reduce the sophistication as well as the recruitment rate to levels where cells' functionality will be impaired, and thus unable to carry high lethality attacks.http://archive.org/details/theuseofsystemdy1094510022Dominican Republic Navy autho

Biota parasitária gastrointestinal de caititus "Tayassu tajacu Linnaeus 1758" (Pecari tajacu Jacq.) criados em cativeiro.

Os caititus foram identificados como uma das espécies mais caçadas na região da Transamazônica ? PA. (BONAUDO et al., 2002). Nas regiões de colonização da Amazônia, encontram-se várias espécies silvestres cuja única exploração baseia-se na caça que é uma fonte de proteína alternativa para a população local. Esta, junto com o desmatamento, a fragmentação de habitats e o comércio ilegal pode causar a diminuição de espécies. Uma alternativa para solucionar este problema é o incentivo à criatórios, que são uma forma de utilização sustentável da biodiversidade, geração de renda e identificação das ações conservacionistas (MMA, 2001). Objetivou-se no presente trabalho estudar a biota parasitária gastrintestinal presente em caititus criados em cativeiro em 2 criatórios no Estado do Pará, um na Embrapa Amazônia Oriental, Belém-PA e outro em criatório de produtor comercial em Santa Izabel ? PA, por ser o fator sanitário mais importante desta espécie em cativeiro e afim de disponibilizar dados mais atuais literatura sobre os animais em questão. Para as análises de endoparasitas gastrintestinais foram realizadas análises de fezes com os seguintes métodos: Sedimentação e Mcmaster. A ocorrência de parasitas gastrintestinais até o presente momento é de 71,92% (41 animais), sendo que destes 85,36% (35 animais) apresentaram infecção simples e 14,63% (6 animais) apresentaram infecção múltipla. Os parasitas identificados e suas respectivas incidências foram Balantidium coli (64,91%); Ascaris suun (8,77%)e grupo dos Strongylideos (8,77%)

Optimal capital controls and real exchange rate policies: A pecuniary externality perspective

In response to the global Önancial crisis a new policy paradigm emerged in which capital controls and other quantitative restrictions on credit áows have become part of the standard crisis prevention policy toolkit. A new strand of theoretical literature studies the use of capital controls in a context in which pecuniary externality justiÖes policy interventions. Within the same theoretical framework adopted in this literature, we show that the optimal design of crisis prevention (ex-ante) policies depends on the e§ectiviness of crisis management (ex-post) policies. This interaction between ex-ante and ex-post policies gives rise to a new rationale for the use of capital controls. SpeciÖcally, we show that when ex-post policies are e§ective in containing crises, there is no need to intervene ex-ante with capital controls. On the other hand, if crises management policies entail e¢ ciency costs and hence lose e§ectiveness, then the optimal policy mix consists of both ex-ante and ex-post interventions so that crises prevention policies become desirable. In our model, the optimal policy mix combines capital controls in tranquil times with real exchange rate support to limit its depreciation during crises times and yields welfare gains of more than 1% in consumption equivalence terms

Uso de anti-helmínticos e bioestimulantes no desempenho de bovinos de corte suplementados a pasto no estado do Pará.

O experimento avaliou o efeito da vermifugação e da utilização de bioestimulantes no ganho de peso e no escore de condição corporal (ECC) de bovinos de corte, criados em sistema de pastejo rotacionado com suplementação a pasto, no Estado do Pará, durante 160 dias. Foram utilizados 132 bovinos machos não castrados, com idade média de 24 meses, da raça Nelore (Bos taurus indicus). Os grupos experimentais compreenderam o grupo G1 (controle; n=33), G2 (moxidectina 1%; n=33), G3 (moxidectina 10%; n=33) e G4 (ivermectina 3,15%; n=33). Em todos os grupos foram estabelecidas três subparcelas, a fim de serem testados dois bioestimulantes de crescimento animal (bioestimulante 1 e bioestimulante 2). Não houve diferença estatística significativa no ganho de peso médio, no ECC e nas contagens de OPG entre animais do G1, G2, G3 e G4, independentemente dos anti-helmínticos e/ou bioestimulantes usados. Contudo, o tratamento baseado na associação de moxidectina 1% e o bioestimulante 2 apresentou maior receita líquida e incrementou a lucratividade da terminação em 1,24%. Os resultados sugerem que não há necessidade de um controle contra nematódeos durante a terminação, desde que os animais apresentem uma baixa carga parasitária, porém o uso de fármacos pode, sob certas condições, apresentar resultado econômico favorável

PRIMER REGISTRO DE CANTHON ANGUSTATUS HAROLD 1867 EN MÉXICO (COLEOPTERA: SCARABAEOIDEA)

The scarab beetle Canthon angustatus Harold, 1867 (Coleoptera: Scarabaeoidea) is recorded for the first time in Mexico, based upon several specimens collected in Chiapas