When are adaptive expectations rational? A generalization

This note presents a simple generalization of the adaptive expectations mechanism in which the learning parameter is time variant. It is shown that expectations generated in this way are rational in the sense of producing minimum mean squared forecast errors for a broad class of time series models, namely any process that can be written in linear state space form.Adaptive Expectations; Rational Expectations; Kalman Filter

Trade costs and facilitation in APEC and ASEAN: Delivering the goods?

This paper uses a new methodology to provide some first evidence on the overall level of trade costs in APEC and ASEAN. On average, APEC member economies have met the Shanghai target of a 5% reduction in trade costs over five years, but only just. Performance of individual member economies varies substantially, and in some cases is far below the Shanghai target. ASEAN member countries have also experienced some declines in trade costs, but generally to a lesser extent than in APEC. In both groups, tariff reductions have played an important role in reducing overall trade costs. Progress on non-tariff trade costs has been much more limited. Moving forward, APEC and ASEAN should refocus their trade facilitation efforts on non-tariff trade costs. They also need to develop clearer metrics against which progress can be assessed, and move towards a focus on outputs (lower trade costs), rather than inputs (administrative and policy changes).International Trade; Regional Integration; APEC; ASEAN; Trade Costs; Trade Facilitation

Estimating Price Elasticities of Supply for Cotton: A Structural Time-Series Approach

The Kalman Filter is used to estimate a structural time-series model of cotton supply for 30 countries and 16 aggregated regions. Estimated short run supply elasticities with respect to the world price are presented for all 46 countries and regions. While they are broadly within the expected range in light of previous work, they indicate extensive cross-country and regional heterogeneity, as well as considerable parameter uncertainty in some cases. Finally, some proposals are made for incorporating both the core estimates and their sampling distributions into applied equilibrium models.Cotton; price elasticity of supply; structural time-series model; Kalman Filter

Geographical Diversification of Developing Country Exports

This paper shows that export costs, tariffs, and international transport costs are all important determinants of geographical export diversification in a sample of 123 developing countries. A 10% reduction in any one of these factors produces a 5%-6% increase in the number of foreign markets entered. Moreover, there is evidence that these impacts differ significantly across countries and sectors: geographical export diversification is more sensitive to export costs and transport costs in more differentiated sectors, and to export costs in lower income countries. These results are generally robust to alternative specifications, and instrumental variables estimation.International trade; Trade policy; Trade and development; Extensive margin; Economic geography

Product standards, harmonization, and trade : evidence from the extensive margin

The author uses a new database of EU product standards in the textiles, clothing, and footwear sectors to present the first empirical evidence that international standards harmonization is associated with increased partner country export variety. A 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of internationally harmonized standards is associated with a 0.2 percent increase in partner country export variety, whereas a 10 percent increase in the total number of standards is associated with a nearly 6 percent decrease in product variety. Although small, the harmonization elasticity is statistically significant, and proves highly robust to sample changes and instrumental variables estimation using instruments motivated by political economy considerations. Moreover, it is found to be around 50 percent higher for low income countries, which suggests that they may be particularly constrained in adapting products to meet multiple standards. Numerical simulations show that these findings are consistent with a heterogeneous firms model of trade in which harmonization is beneficial at the extensive margin provided that any increases in compliance costs are not too large.Housing&Human Habitats,E-Finance and E-Security,Educational Technology and Distance Education,Mining&Extractive Industry (Non-Energy),E-Business

Speed Money: Time, Corruption, and Trade

This paper shows that longer trade times are associated with higher levels of trade-related corruption, consistent with a theoretical framework in which “fast” producers earn higher profits than “slow” ones, but may have to pay “speed money” to possibly corrupt customs officials. This finding is robust to the use of corruption measures based on perceptions and reported behavior, the inclusion of a wide range of control variables from the previous literature, and estimation by a variety of methods including instrumental variables. Moreover, results from a gravity model show that the combination of slow border procedures and rampant corruption acts as a significant drag on international trade, in line with the model's predictions: the elasticity of bilateral trade with respect to trade time is around 5% stronger in a country with rampant corruption compared with a corruption free country. Together, these results suggest that improved trade facilitation can be an effective and feasible policy for reducing corruption over the short-term in weak institutional environments.International trade; Trade policy; Economic Development; Political Economy; Corruption.

Trade in Services and Human Development: A First Look at the Links

Some services directly produce outputs that are important for human development, such as basic human services. Many other services are important inputs into the production and distribution of goods that are necessary for human development purposes. A more efficient services sector should mean that such goods and services can be made available to poor people more cost effectively and more broadly. In line with this reasoning, we find in the data that less restrictive services trade policies are associated with better human development outcomes across a range of sectors. Appropriate services trade liberalization can therefore promote human development directly through improved outcomes, in addition to indirectly effects through the income channel.trade in services; services sector regulation; human development; poverty reduction

Trade costs, barriers to entry, and export diversification in developing countries

This paper finds that a 1 percent reduction in the cost of exporting or the cost of international transport is associated with an export diversification gain of 0.3 percent or 0.4 percent respectively. Lower domestic market entry costs can also promote diversification, but the elasticity is weaker (-0.1). To obtain these results, the authors construct new measures of export diversification for 118 developing countries using highly detailed 8-digit mirror data from the European Union. The analysis also incorporates new export cost data from the World Bank's Doing Business database, covering document preparation, inland transport, administrative fees, and port/customs charges. Findings are highly robust, including to the use of geography and colonial history as instruments for trade and entry costs. Both the signs and relative magnitudes of these effects are consistent with predictions from a heterogeneous firms model of trade with asymmetric costs.Housing&Human Habitats,E-Finance and E-Security,Mining&Extractive Industry (Non-Energy),Educational Technology and Distance Education,Transport Economics Policy&Planning