Possibilistic classifiers for numerical data

International audienceNaive Bayesian Classifiers, which rely on independence hypotheses, together with a normality assumption to estimate densities for numerical data, are known for their simplicity and their effectiveness. However, estimating densities, even under the normality assumption, may be problematic in case of poor data. In such a situation, possibility distributions may provide a more faithful representation of these data. Naive Possibilistic Classifiers (NPC), based on possibility theory, have been recently proposed as a counterpart of Bayesian classifiers to deal with classification tasks. There are only few works that treat possibilistic classification and most of existing NPC deal only with categorical attributes. This work focuses on the estimation of possibility distributions for continuous data. In this paper we investigate two kinds of possibilistic classifiers. The first one is derived from classical or flexible Bayesian classifiers by applying a probability–possibility transformation to Gaussian distributions, which introduces some further tolerance in the description of classes. The second one is based on a direct interpretation of data in possibilistic formats that exploit an idea of proximity between data values in different ways, which provides a less constrained representation of them. We show that possibilistic classifiers have a better capability to detect new instances for which the classification is ambiguous than Bayesian classifiers, where probabilities may be poorly estimated and illusorily precise. Moreover, we propose, in this case, an hybrid possibilistic classification approach based on a nearest-neighbour heuristics to improve the accuracy of the proposed possibilistic classifiers when the available information is insufficient to choose between classes. Possibilistic classifiers are compared with classical or flexible Bayesian classifiers on a collection of benchmarks databases. The experiments reported show the interest of possibilistic classifiers. In particular, flexible possibilistic classifiers perform well for data agreeing with the normality assumption, while proximity-based possibilistic classifiers outperform others in the other cases. The hybrid possibilistic classification exhibits a good ability for improving accuracy

Genome-wide association studies of autoimmune vitiligo identify 23 new risk loci and highlight key pathways and regulatory variants

Vitiligo is an autoimmune disease in which depigmented skin results from the destruction of melanocytes1, with epidemiological association with other autoimmune diseases2. In previous linkage and genome-wide association studies (GWAS1 and GWAS2), we identified 27 vitiligo susceptibility loci in patients of European ancestry. We carried out a third GWAS (GWAS3) in European-ancestry subjects, with augmented GWAS1 and GWAS2 controls, genome-wide imputation, and meta-analysis of all three GWAS, followed by an independent replication. The combined analyses, with 4,680 cases and 39,586 controls, identified 23 new significantly associated loci and 7 suggestive loci. Most encode immune and apoptotic regulators, with some also associated with other autoimmune diseases, as well as several melanocyte regulators. Bioinformatic analyses indicate a predominance of causal regulatory variation, some of which corresponds to expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) at these loci. Together, the identified genes provide a framework for the genetic architecture and pathobiology of vitiligo, highlight relationships with other autoimmune diseases and melanoma, and offer potential targets for treatment

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Dynamics in Circulating y -55Proinflammatory Biomarkers for Prognostic Assessment of Patients With Advanced HCC – A Substudy From the SORAMIC Trial

Introduction: Prediction of response to treatment in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may assist in the selection of personalized management. Objective: This exploratory analysis of the palliative arm of the SORAMIC trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01126645) evaluated the prognostic potential of basal and dynamic changes in systemic levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6), interleukin 8 (IL-8), systemic vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Methods: We evaluated the correlations between overall survival (OS) and concentrations of IL-6, IL-8, VEGF, and LPS at follow-up approximately 7-9 weeks after treatment initialization (FU) compared to baseline (BL) in 90 patients treated either with 90Yttrium (90Y) microspheres combined with sorafenib (n = 44) or with sorafenib (n = 46) alone. Results: Changes in IL-6 concentration during treatment showed correlations with the outcome. An increase in IL-6 concentration of less than 16.8 pg/mL over baseline readings was associated with better survival [median OS 16.3 months compared with 8.9 months (p = 0.0354)]. Correlations with survival were not observed for VEGF or LPS concentrations at baseline, at FU, or changes between these time points. Conclusions: Changes in IL 6 serum levels at 7-9 weeks after treatment initialization but not in IL 8, VEGF, or LPS add important information on the outcome of advanced HCC patients treated palliatively within the SORAMIC trial

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Bioactive Secondary Metabolites from a New Terrestrial Streptomyces sp. TN262

During our search for Streptomyces spp. as new producers of bioactive secondary metabolites, the ethyl acetate extract of the new terrestrial Streptomyces isolate TN262 delivered eight antimicrobially active compounds. They were identified as 1-acetyl-β-carboline (1), tryptophol (2), cineromycin B (3), 2,3-dihydrocineromycin B (4), cyclo-(tyrosylprolyl) (5), 3-(hydroxyacetyl)-indole (6), brevianamide F (7), and cis-cyclo-(l-prolyl-l-leucyl) (8). Three further metabolites were detected in the unpolar fractions using GC–MS and tentatively assigned as benzophenone (9), N-butyl-benzenesulfonamide (10), and hexanedioic acid-bis-(2-ethylhexyl) ester (11). This last compound is known as plasticizer derivatives, but it has never been described from natural sources. In this article, we describe the identification of the new Streptomyces sp. isolate TN262 using its cultural characteristics, the nucleotide sequence of the corresponding 16S rRNA gene and the phylogenetic analysis, followed by optimization, large-scale fermentation, isolation of the bioactive constituents, and determination of their structures. The biological activity of compounds (2), (3), (4), and those of the unpolar fractions was addressed as well

Heavy burden of non-communicable diseases at early age and gender disparities in an adult population of Burkina Faso: world health survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>WHO estimates suggest that age-specific death rates from non-communicable diseases are higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in high-income countries. The objectives of this study were to examine, in Burkina Faso, the prevalence of non-communicable disease symptoms by age, gender, socioeconomic group and setting (rural/urban), and to assess gender and socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of these symptoms.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We obtained data from the Burkina Faso World Health Survey, which was conducted in an adult population (18 years and over) with a high response rate (4822/4880 selected individuals). The survey used a multi-stage stratified random cluster sampling strategy to identify participants. The survey collected information on socio-demographic and economic characteristics, as well as data on symptoms of a variety of health conditions. Our study focused on joint disease, back pain, angina pectoris, and asthma. We estimated prevalence correcting for the sampling design. We used multiple Poisson regression to estimate associations between non-communicable disease symptoms, gender, socioeconomic status and setting.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall crude prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were: 16.2% [13.5; 19.2] for joint disease, 24% [21.5; 26.6] for back pain, 17.9% [15.8; 20.2] for angina pectoris, and 11.6% [9.5; 14.2] for asthma. Consistent relationships between age and the prevalence of non-communicable disease symptoms were observed in both men and women from rural and urban settings. There was markedly high prevalence in all conditions studied, starting with young adults. Women presented higher prevalence rates of symptoms than men for all conditions: prevalence ratios and 95% CIs were 1.20 [1.01; 1.43] for joint disease, 1.42 [1.21; 1.66] for back pain, 1.68 [1.39; 2.04] for angina pectoris, and 1.28 [0.99; 1.65] for asthma. Housewives and unemployed women had the highest prevalence rates of non-communicable disease symptoms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our work suggests that social inequality extends into the distribution of non-communicable diseases among social groups and supports the thesis of a differential vulnerability in Burkinabè women. It raises the possibility of an abnormally high rate of premature morbidity that could manifest as a form of premature aging in the adult population. Increased prevention, screening and treatment are needed in Burkina Faso to address high prevalence and gender inequalities in non-communicable diseases.</p

The Impact of Social Disparity on Prefrontal Function in Childhood

The prefrontal cortex (PFC) develops from birth through late adolescence. This extended developmental trajectory provides many opportunities for experience to shape the structure and function of the PFC. To date, a few studies have reported links between parental socioeconomic status (SES) and prefrontal function in childhood, raising the possibility that aspects of environment associated with SES impact prefrontal function. Considering that behavioral measures of prefrontal function are associated with learning across multiple domains, this is an important area of investigation. In this study, we used fMRI to replicate previous findings, demonstrating an association between parental SES and PFC function during childhood. In addition, we present two hypothetical mechanisms by which SES could come to affect PFC function of this association: language environment and stress reactivity. We measured language use in the home environment and change in salivary cortisol before and after fMRI scanning. Complexity of family language, but not the child's own language use, was associated with both parental SES and PFC activation. Change in salivary cortisol was also associated with both SES and PFC activation. These observed associations emphasize the importance of both enrichment and adversity-reduction interventions in creating good developmental environments for all children

Male Oxidative Stress Infertility (MOSI): Proposed Terminology and Clinical Practice Guidelines for Management of Idiopathic Male Infertility

Despite advances in the field of male reproductive health, idiopathic male infertility, in which a man has altered semen characteristics without an identifiable cause and there is no female factor infertility, remains a challenging condition to diagnose and manage. Increasing evidence suggests that oxidative stress (OS) plays an independent role in the etiology of male infertility, with 30% to 80% of infertile men having elevated seminal reactive oxygen species levels. OS can negatively affect fertility via a number of pathways, including interference with capacitation and possible damage to sperm membrane and DNA, which may impair the sperm’s potential to fertilize an egg and develop into a healthy embryo. Adequate evaluation of male reproductive potential should therefore include an assessment of sperm OS. We propose the term Male Oxidative Stress Infertility, or MOSI, as a novel descriptor for infertile men with abnormal semen characteristics and OS, including many patients who were previously classified as having idiopathic male infertility. Oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) can be a useful clinical biomarker for the classification of MOSI, as it takes into account the levels of both oxidants and reductants (antioxidants). Current treatment protocols for OS, including the use of antioxidants, are not evidence-based and have the potential for complications and increased healthcare-related expenditures. Utilizing an easy, reproducible, and cost-effective test to measure ORP may provide a more targeted, reliable approach for administering antioxidant therapy while minimizing the risk of antioxidant overdose. With the increasing awareness and understanding of MOSI as a distinct male infertility diagnosis, future research endeavors can facilitate the development of evidence-based treatments that target its underlying cause

Male Oxidative Stress Infertility (MOSI):proposed terminology and clinical practice guidelines for management of idiopathic male infertility

Despite advances in the field of male reproductive health, idiopathic male infertility, in which a man has altered semen characteristics without an identifiable cause and there is no female factor infertility, remains a challenging condition to diagnose and manage. Increasing evidence suggests that oxidative stress (OS) plays an independent role in the etiology of male infertility, with 30% to 80% of infertile men having elevated seminal reactive oxygen species levels. OS can negatively affect fertility via a number of pathways, including interference with capacitation and possible damage to sperm membrane and DNA, which may impair the sperm's potential to fertilize an egg and develop into a healthy embryo. Adequate evaluation of male reproductive potential should therefore include an assessment of sperm OS. We propose the term Male Oxidative Stress Infertility, or MOSI, as a novel descriptor for infertile men with abnormal semen characteristics and OS, including many patients who were previously classified as having idiopathic male infertility. Oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) can be a useful clinical biomarker for the classification of MOSI, as it takes into account the levels of both oxidants and reductants (antioxidants). Current treatment protocols for OS, including the use of antioxidants, are not evidence-based and have the potential for complications and increased healthcare-related expenditures. Utilizing an easy, reproducible, and cost-effective test to measure ORP may provide a more targeted, reliable approach for administering antioxidant therapy while minimizing the risk of antioxidant overdose. With the increasing awareness and understanding of MOSI as a distinct male infertility diagnosis, future research endeavors can facilitate the development of evidence-based treatments that target its underlying cause