Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. Simulation results from these models have also been used as a basis for offering advice to African countries on what positions to take in multilateral trade negotiations. There is however increasing discomfort with the use of these models for policy recommendations, especially in Africa. In this paper we compare the results of several CGE studies that examined the impact of potential Doha Round reforms on Africa and demonstrate that the results differ drastically both in terms of magnitude and direction. Part of the discrepancies in results can be explained by differences in database, model structure, and choice of parameters. Others are, however, difficult to explain because several studies either do not report key assumptions made or do not provide a clear description of how their framework differs from those in the literature. We also show that the modelling approach and the database used in most CGE studies do not take account of key features of African economies that have serious implications for the impact of trade reforms on Africa. Finally, we outline potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggest pitfalls to avoid if CGE model results are to be taken seriously by policy makers in Africa.Trade Reforms; CGE Models; Doha Round; Africa

Financing Development in Africa: Trends, Issues and Challenges

Access to finance is critical to successful development in Africa. This paper presents recent trends in various aspects of development finance and provides a critical assessment of the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals in the region. It also examines recent proposals for financing the MDGs. Furthermore, it examines the key international commitments made to Africa as well as the extent to which donors have fulfilled these commitments. Finally, it examines issues and challenges arising from recent initiatives on aid and debt.Development; Finance; MDGs; Africa; Trends

The Cost of non-Maghreb: Achieving the Gains from Economic Integration

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the integration of Maghreb countries into a free trade area on the main macroeconomic aggregates. By using the MIRAGE model and MacMap database, we tested different scenarios to estimate the gains or the potential losses of various plans of trade integration (Free trade area for the Maghreb countries, Custom Union between Maghreb countries, Maghreban Common Market). Our study suggests that the overall gains from liberalizing trade in goods (and removing various regulatory non-tariff barriers in the process) could reach at least USD 350 million. The increase in revenue through increases in production and wages would positively affect welfare levels for Maghreb consumers. The dynamic gains from liberalizing trade in goods can outstrip the static gains, with productivity improvements as the main driver. Our analysis shows that the creation of a common market is probably the most interesting and efficient option for the Maghreb countries.Free Trade Area, Maghreb, and CGE Model

Trade liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda Options and consequences for Africa

This study provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform under the WTO for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. It also examines the impact of OECD agricultural support programmes on economic welfare and specialisation in Africa. In the static version of the GTAP model, the study finds that full liberalisation of trade would increase global welfare (income) by 0.3 per cent, but would add 0.7 per cent annually to income in the African region. Sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, Southern Africa, are vulnerable to partial trade reforms as they incur losses from partial reform while all other regions derive positive gains from a liberalisation of minor scope.international trade, general equilibrium WTO, Doha round, Africa, agricultural policy

Diversification: towards a new paradigm for Africa’s development

This paper is articulated around the following chapters. After this introduction, the first chapter will underscore Africa’s development stakes. This analysis will enable us to tackle the problem of modernizing and diversifying the productive fabric of African economies. The second chapter will be devoted to the recent renewal of the diversification problem. It will enable us to underscore the new concerns and the development of the debate on this issue since the failure of the experiences of the 1970’s. The third chapter will be devoted to the presentation and the discussion of diversification gauging tools. The fourth chapter will present facts connected to the diversification of African economies. In this chapter, we took a comparative approach that would allow us to put into perspective the different sub-regional experiences as well as link Africa’s economic history in comparison to that of Asia and Latin America. In the fifth chapter, we will abandon the descriptive approach in favour of analytical elements and attempt to determine factors justifying diversification. This approach will be reflected upon in detail in the sixth chapter where we will focus our attention on the relation between diversification and economic growth. Finally, in the last chapter we will look into formulating economic policy recommendations for African countries in the area of diversification.Diversification- Africa- Regional Economic Communities

Assessing the Consequences of the Economic Partnership Agreement on the Ethiopian Economy

The results presented indicate that a free trade area would reinforce the linkages between Ethiopia and European countries, including traditional partners such as Italy, with implications for the regional integration arrangements that Ethiopia is currently involved in. There will be significant trade diversion away from other African countries currently trading with Ethiopia. The diversion will occur in the lowtechnology sectors, which are potentially good foundations for deepened regional integration based on trade in industrial goods. The results further indicate some important implications with respect to Ethiopia’s industrialization strategy. The liberalization of industrial sectors result in more trade effects, particularly negative trade diversion, compared to the results from agricultural liberalization. The loss in revenue, which is a strong feature in general liberalization, is at the sectoral level, more pronounced in the industrial liberalization. The economic structure of Ethiopia, which supports self-reliance in food from the agriculture sector, underpins the limited losses in agriculture as compared to the industrial sector. Clearly, instead of opening the doors to economic diversification, the EPA could lead Ethiopia to deepen its comparative advantages in agricultural products.Ethiopia- Economic Partnership Agreement- Trade impact

Can Market Access Help African Agriculture?

This paper examines the implications for African economies of the possible outcomes from the ongoing agriculture negotiations in the Doha Round. The paper defines scenarios that capture key elements of the modalities negotiations and undertakes simulations using a global dynamic general equilibrium model to examine the impact of multilateral agricultural trade reforms on African economies. The scenarios vary in their level of ambition in the market access pillar through both the level of tariff cuts in the different tiers and the level of sensitive sectors defined both for developed and developing economies. Results show that ambitious coefficients in the market access pillar remain the best outcome for Africa. Even what might seem to be an insignificant definition of sensitive products for developed countries erodes potential benefits from deep tariff cuts for African countries. This suggests that utilizing sensitive products tariff lines by developed countries not only dampens the expected positive outcomes for agriculture negotiations in favour of Africa but could also actually wipe out such gains. The results further confirm findings of other studies showing that tariff cuts for agricultural goods yield higher gains than elimination of subsidies, and this applies mainly to net food importing developing countries. Thus, reduction of subsidies should go hand-in-hand with agricultural tariff reductions in order to ensure win-win outcomes.Agriculture in International Trade, Welfare Economics, Computable General Equilibrium, Models, Africa

Financing Development in Africa: Trends, Issues and Challenges

Access to finance is critical to successful development in Africa. This paper presents recent trends in various aspects of development finance and provides a critical assessment of the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals in the region. It also examines recent proposals for financing the MDGs. Furthermore, it examines the key international commitments made to Africa as well as the extent to which donors have fulfilled these commitments. Finally, it examines issues and challenges arising from recent initiatives on aid and debt

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. Simulation results from these models have also been used as a basis for offering advice to African countries on what positions to take in multilateral trade negotiations. There is however increasing discomfort with the use of these models for policy recommendations, especially in Africa. In this paper we compare the results of several CGE studies that examined the impact of potential Doha Round reforms on Africa and demonstrate that the results differ drastically both in terms of magnitude and direction. Part of the discrepancies in results can be explained by differences in database, model structure, and choice of parameters. Others are, however, difficult to explain because several studies either do not report key assumptions made or do not provide a clear description of how their framework differs from those in the literature. We also show that the modelling approach and the database used in most CGE studies do not take account of key features of African economies that have serious implications for the impact of trade reforms on Africa. Finally, we outline potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggest pitfalls to avoid if CGE model results are to be taken seriously by policy makers in Africa

Financing Development in Africa: Trends, Issues and Challenges

Access to finance is critical to successful development in Africa. This paper presents recent trends in various aspects of development finance and provides a critical assessment of the costs of meeting the Millennium Development Goals in the region. It also examines recent proposals for financing the MDGs. Furthermore, it examines the key international commitments made to Africa as well as the extent to which donors have fulfilled these commitments. Finally, it examines issues and challenges arising from recent initiatives on aid and debt