Early transitions and tertiary enrolment: The cumulative impact of primary and secondary effects on entering university in Germany

Our aim is to assess how the number of working class students entering German universities can effectively be increased. Therefore, we estimate the proportion of students from the working class that would successfully enter university if certain policy interventions were in place to eliminate primary effects (performance differentials between social classes) and/or secondary effects (choice differentials net of performance) at different transition points. We extend previous research by analysing the sequence of transitions between elementary school enrolment and university enrolment and by accounting for the impact that manipulations at earlier transitions have on the performance distribution and size of the student ‘risk-set’ at subsequent transitions. To this end, we develop a novel simulation procedure which also seeks to find viable solutions to the shortcomings in the German data landscape. Our findings show that interventions are most effective if they take place early in the educational career. Neutralizing secondary effects at the transition to upper secondary school proves to be the single most effective means to increase participation rates in tertiary education among working class students. However, this comes at the expense of lower average performance levels. (DIPF/author

Automated segmentation of changes in FLAIR-hyperintense white matter lesions in multiple sclerosis on serial magnetic resonance imaging

Longitudinal analysis of white matter lesion changes on serial MRI has become an important parameter to study diseases with white-matter lesions. Here, we build on earlier work on cross-sectional lesion segmentation;we present a fully automatic pipeline for serial analysis of FLAIR-hyperintense white matter lesions. Our algorithm requires three-dimensional gradient echo T1- and FLAIR- weighted images at 3 Tesla as well as available cross-sectional lesion segmentations of both time points. Preprocessing steps include lesion filling and intrasubject registration. For segmentation of lesion changes, initial lesion maps of different time points are fused;herein changes in intensity are analyzed at the voxel level. Significance of lesion change is estimated by comparison with the difference distribution of FLAIR intensities within normal appearing white matter. The method is validated on MRI data of two time points from 40 subjects with multiple sclerosis derived from two different scanners (20 subjects per scanner). Manual segmentation of lesion increases served as gold standard. Across all lesion increases, voxel-wise Dice coefficient (0.7) as well as lesion-wise detection rate (0.8) and false-discovery rate (0.2) indicate good overall performance. Analysis of scans from a repositioning experiment in a single patient with multiple sclerosis did not yield a single false positive lesion. We also introduce the lesion change plot as a descriptive tool for the lesion change of individual patients with regard to both number and volume. An open source implementation of the algorithm is available at http//www.satastical-modeling.de/lst.html

Prognostic value of single-subject grey matter networks in early multiple sclerosis

The identification of prognostic markers in early multiple sclerosis (MS) is challenging and requires reliable measures that robustly predict future disease trajectories. Ideally, such measures should make inferences at the individual level to inform clinical decisions. This study investigated the prognostic value of longitudinal structural networks to predict five-year EDSS progression in patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). We hypothesized that network measures, derived from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), outperform conventional MRI measurements at identifying patients at risk of developing disability progression. This longitudinal, multicentre study within the Magnetic Resonance Imaging in MS (MAGNIMS) network included 406 patients with RRMS (mean age = 35.7 ± 9.1 years) followed up for five years (mean follow-up = 5.0 ± 0.6 years). Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) was determined to track disability accumulation. A group of 153 healthy subjects (mean age = 35.0 ± 10.1 years) with longitudinal MRI served as controls. All subjects underwent MRI at baseline and again one year after baseline. Grey matter (GM) atrophy over one year and white matter (WM) lesion load were determined. A single-subject brain network was reconstructed from T1-weighted scans based on GM atrophy measures derived from a statistical parameter mapping (SPM)-based segmentation pipeline. Key topological measures, including network degree, global efficiency and transitivity, were calculated at single-subject level to quantify network properties related to EDSS progression. Areas under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for GM atrophy, WM lesion load and the network measures, and comparisons between ROC curves were conducted. The applied network analyses differentiated patients with RRMS who experience EDSS progression over five years through lower values for network degree [H(2)=30.0, p<0.001] and global efficiency [H(2)=31.3, p<0.001] from healthy controls but also from patients without progression. For transitivity, the comparisons showed no difference between the groups (H(2)= 1.5, p=0.474). Most notably, changes in network degree and global efficiency were detected independent of disease activity in the first year. The described network reorganization in patients experiencing EDSS progression was evident in the absence of GM atrophy. Network degree and global efficiency measurements demonstrated superiority of network measures in the ROC analyses over GM atrophy and WM lesion load in predicting EDSS worsening (all p-values < 0.05). Our findings provide evidence that GM network reorganization over one year discloses relevant information about subsequent clinical worsening in RRMS. Early GM restructuring towards lower network efficiency predicts disability accumulation and outperforms conventional MRI predictors