Evaluating the impact of the Alcohol Act on off-trade alcohol sales: a natural experiment in Scotland

<b>Background and aims</b> A ban on multi-buy discounts of off-trade alcohol was introduced as part of the Alcohol Act in Scotland in October 2011. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of this legislation on alcohol sales, which provide the best indicator of population consumption.<p></p> <b>Design Setting and Participants</b> Interrupted time-series regression was used to assess the impact of the Alcohol Act on alcohol sales among off-trade retailers in Scotland. Models accounted for underlying seasonal and secular trends and were adjusted for disposable income, alcohol prices and substitution effects. Data for off-trade retailers in England and Wales combined (EW) provided a control group.<p></p> <b>Measurements</b> Weekly data on the volume of pure alcohol sold by off-trade retailers in Scotland and EW between January 2009 and September 2012.<p></p> <b>Findings</b> The introduction of the legislation was associated with a 2.6% (95% CI -5.3 to 0.2%, P = 0.07) decrease in off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland, but not in EW (-0.5%, -4.6 to 3.9%, P = 0.83). A statistically significant reduction was observed in Scotland when EW sales were adjusted for in the analysis (-1.7%, -3.1 to -0.3%, P = 0.02). The decline in Scotland was driven by reduced off-trade sales of wine (-4.0%, -5.4 to -2.6%, P < 0.001) and pre-mixed beverages (-8.5%, -12.7 to -4.1%, P < 0.001). There were no associated changes in other drink types in Scotland, or in sales of any drink type in EW.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> The introduction of the Alcohol Act in Scotland in 2011 was associated with a decrease in total off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland, largely driven by reduced off-trade wine sales

Monitoring and evaluation framework for ‘Rights, Respect and Recovery: Scotland’s strategy to improve health by preventing and reducing alcohol and drug use, harm and related deaths’.

The Monitoring and evaluation framework for ‘Rights, Respect and Recovery: Scotland’s strategy to improve health by preventing and reducing alcohol and drug use, harm and related deaths' (MERRR) report gives an overview of the process used to develop the framework and the governance that will be used to direct how it is implemented. It includes a set of indicators to be analysed. It also outlines the indicator and evaluation gaps identified

Tracking biases : an update to the validity and reliability of alcohol retail sales data for estimating population consumption in Scotland

Purchase of the sales data was funded by the Scottish Government as part of the wider Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland's Alcohol Strategy portfolio of studies. Funding to pay the Open Access publication charges for this article was provided by NHS Health Scotland.Aims: To highlight the importance of monitoring biases when using retail sales data to estimate population alcohol consumption. Methods: Previously, we identified and where possible quantified sources of bias that may lead to under- or overestimation of alcohol consumption in Scotland. Here, we update findings by using more recent data and by quantifying emergent biases. Results: Underestimation resulting from the net effect of biases on population consumption in Scotland increased from -4% in 2010 to -7% in 2013. Conclusion: Biases that might impact on the validity and reliability of sales data when estimating population consumption should be routinely monitored and updated.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) on off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland: a controlled interrupted time series study

Background and Aims: On 1 May 2018, Scotland became the first country in the world to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP), a strength‐based floor price below which alcohol cannot be sold, across all alcoholic beverages. The legislation contains a sunset clause meaning a comprehensive mixed methods evaluation of its impact across a range of outcomes will inform whether it will continue beyond its sixth year. In this study, we assessed the impact of MUP on off‐trade alcohol sales (as a proxy for consumption) after its first year. Design, Setting and Participants: Controlled interrupted time–series regression was used to assess the impact of MUP on alcohol sales among off‐trade retailers in Scotland in the year after it was introduced, with England and Wales (EW) being the control group. In adjusted analyses, we included household disposable income, on‐trade alcohol sales and substitution between beverage categories as covariates. Measurements: Weekly data on the volume of pure alcohol sold by off‐trade retailers in Scotland and EW between January 2013 and May 2019, expressed as litres of pure alcohol per adult. Findings: The introduction of MUP in Scotland was associated with a 3.5% (95% confidence interval: 2.2% to 4.9%) reduction in off‐trade alcohol sales per adult after adjustment for the best available geographical control, disposable income and substitution. In unadjusted analysis, the introduction of MUP was associated with a 2.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.4% to 3.6%) reduction in off‐trade alcohol sales per adult in Scotland. In EW, there was a 2.4% (0.8% to 4.0%) increase over the same time period. The reduction in off‐trade alcohol sales in Scotland was driven by reduced sales of spirits, cider and perry beverage categories. Conclusion: The implementation of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland in 2018 appears to have been associated with a reduction in off‐trade alcohol sales after its first year

Evaluating the impact of alcohol minimum unit pricing on deaths and hospitalisations in Scotland: a controlled interrupted time series study

Background: Since May 1, 2018, every alcoholic drink sold in Scotland has had minimum unit pricing (MUP) of £0·50 per unit. Previous studies have indicated that the introduction of this policy reduced alcohol sales by 3%. We aimed to assess whether this has led to reductions in alcohol-attributable deaths and hospitalisations. Methods: Study outcomes, wholly attributable to alcohol consumption, were defined using routinely collected data on deaths and hospitalisations. Controlled interrupted time series regression was used to assess the legislation's impact in Scotland, and any effect modification across demographic and socioeconomic deprivation groups. The pre-intervention time series ran from Jan 1, 2012, to April 30, 2018, and for 32 months after the policy was implemented (until Dec 31, 2020). Data from England, a part of the UK where the intervention was not implemented, were used to form a control group. Findings: MUP in Scotland was associated with a significant 13·4% reduction (95% CI –18·4 to –8·3; p=0·0004) in deaths wholly attributable to alcohol consumption. Hospitalisations wholly attributable to alcohol consumption decreased by 4·1% (–8·3 to 0·3; p=0·064). Effects were driven by significant improvements in chronic outcomes, particularly alcoholic liver disease. Furthermore, MUP legislation was associated with a reduction in deaths and hospitalisations wholly attributable to alcohol consumption in the four most socioeconomically deprived deciles in Scotland. Interpretation: The implementation of MUP legislation was associated with significant reductions in deaths, and reductions in hospitalisations, wholly attributable to alcohol consumption. The greatest improvements were in the four most socioeconomically deprived deciles, indicating that the policy is positively tackling deprivation-based inequalities in alcohol-attributable health harm. Funding: Scottish Government

Evaluating possible intended and unintended consequences of the implementation of alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) in Scotland: a natural experiment protocol

Introduction Scotland is the first country to carry out a national implementation of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol. MUP aims to reduce alcohol-related harms, which are high in Scotland compared with Western Europe, and to improve health equalities. MUP is a minimum retail price per unit of alcohol. That approach targets high-risk alcohol users. This work is key to a wider evaluation that will determine whether MUP continues. There are three study components.Methods and analysis Component 1 sampled an estimated 2800 interviewees at a baseline and each of two follow-ups from four Emergency Departments in Scotland and Northern England. Research nurses administered a standardised survey to assess alcohol consumption and the proportion of attendances that were alcohol-related.Component 2 covered six Sexual Health Clinics with similar timings and country allocation. A self-completion survey gathered information on potential unintended effects of MUP on alcohol source and drug use.Using a natural experiment design and repeated cross-sectional audit, difference between Scotland (intervention) and North England (control) will be tested for outcomes using regression adjusting for differences at baseline. Differential impacts by age, gender and socioeconomic position will be investigated.Component 3 used focus groups with young people and heavy drinkers and interviews with stakeholders before and after MUP implementation. The focus groups will allow exploration of attitudes, experiences and behaviours and the potential mechanisms by which impacts arise. The interviews will help characterise the implementation process.Ethics and dissemination Study components 1 and 2 have been ethically approved by the NHS, and component 3 by the University of Stirling. Dissemination plans include peer-reviewed journal articles, presentations, policy maker briefings and, in view of high public interest and the high political profile of this flagship policy, communication with the public via media engagement and plain language summaries