Optimal trading strategies - a time series approach

Motivated by recent advances in the spectral theory of auto-covariance matrices, we are led to revisit a reformulation of Markowitz' mean-variance portfolio optimization approach in the time domain. In its simplest incarnation it applies to a single traded asset and allows to find an optimal trading strategy which - for a given return - is minimally exposed to market price fluctuations. The model is initially investigated for a range of synthetic price processes, taken to be either second order stationary, or to exhibit second order stationary increments. Attention is paid to consequences of estimating auto-covariance matrices from small finite samples, and auto-covariance matrix cleaning strategies to mitigate against these are investigated. Finally we apply our framework to real world data

Validating the Rett Syndrome Gross Motor Scale

© 2016 Downs et al. Rett syndrome is a pervasive neurodevelopmental disorder associated with a pathogenic mutation on the MECP2 gene. Impaired movement is a fundamental component and the Rett Syndrome Gross Motor Scale was developed to measure gross motor abilities in this population. The current study investigated the validity and reliability of the Rett Syndrome Gross Motor Scale. Video data showing gross motor abilities supplemented with parent report data was collected for 255 girls and women registered with the Australian Rett Syndrome Database, and the factor structure and relationships between motor scores, age and genotype were investigated. Clinical assessment scores for 38 girls and women with Rett syndrome who attended the Danish Center for Rett Syndrome were used to assess consistency of measurement. Principal components analysis enabled the calculation of three factor scores: Sitting, Standing and Walking, and Challenge. Motor scores were poorer with increasing age and those with the p.Arg133Cys, p.Arg294* or p.Arg306Cys mutation achieved higher scores than those with a large deletion. The repeatability of clinical assessment was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient for total score 0.99, 95% CI 0.93–0.98). The standard error of measurement for the total score was 2 points and we would be 95% confident that a change 4 points in the 45-point scale would be greater than within-subject measurement error. The Rett Syndrome Gross Motor Scale could be an appropriate measure of gross motor skills in clinical practice and clinical trials

Cure or control: complying with biomedical regime of diabetes in Cameroon

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of the study was to explore the cultural aspect of compliance, its underlying principles and how these cultural aspects can be used to improve patient centred care for diabetes in Cameroon.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used participant observation to collect data from a rural and an urban health district of Cameroon from June 2001 to June 2003. Patients were studied in their natural settings through daily interactions with them. The analysis was inductive and a continuous process from the early stages of fieldwork.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The ethnography revealed a lack of basic knowledge about diabetes and diabetes risk factors amongst people with diabetes. The issue of compliance was identified as one of the main themes in the process of treating diabetes. Compliance emerged as part of the discourse of healthcare providers in clinics and filtered into the daily discourses of people with diabetes. The clinical encounters offered treatment packages that were socially inappropriate therefore rejected or modified for most of the time by people with diabetes. Compliance to biomedical therapy suffered a setback for four main reasons: dealing with competing regimes of treatment; coming to terms with biomedical treatment of diabetes; the cost of biomedical therapy; and the impact of AIDS on accepting weight loss as a lifestyle measure in prescription packages. People with diabetes had fears about and negative opinions of accepting certain prescriptions that they thought could interfere with their accustomed social image especially that which had to do with bridging their relationship with ancestors and losing weight in the era of HIV/AIDS.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The cultural pressures on patients are responsible for patients' partial acceptance of and adherence to prescriptions. Understanding the self-image of patients and their background cultures are vital ingredients to improve diabetes care in low-income countries of Sub-Sahara Africa like Cameroon.</p

An argument against the focus on Community Resilience in Public Health

Background - It has been suggested that Public Health professionals focus on community resilience in tackling chronic problems, such as poverty and deprivation; is this approach useful? Discussion - Resilience is always i) of something ii) to something iii) to an endpoint, as in i) a rubber ball, ii) to a blunt force, iii) to its original shape. “Community resilience” might be: of a neighbourhood, to a flu pandemic, with the endpoint, to return to normality. In these two examples, the endpoint is as-you-were. This is unsuitable for some examples of resilience. A child that is resilient to an abusive upbringing has an endpoint of living a happy life despite that upbringing: this is an as-you-should-be endpoint. Similarly, a chronically deprived community cannot have the endpoint of returning to chronic deprivation: so what is its endpoint? Roughly, it is an as-you-should-be endpoint: to provide an environment for inhabitants to live well. Thus resilient communities will be those that do this in the face of challenges. How can they be identified? One method uses statistical outliers, neighbourhoods that do better than would be expected on a range of outcomes given a range of stressors. This method tells us that a neighbourhood is resilient but not why it is. In response, a number of researchers have attributed characteristics to resilient communities; however, these generally fail to distinguish characteristics of a good community from those of a resilient one. Making this distinction is difficult and we have not seen it successfully done; more importantly, it is arguably unnecessary. There already exist approaches in Public Health to assessing and developing communities faced with chronic problems, typically tied to notions such as Social Capital. Communityresilience to chronic problems, if it makes sense at all, is likely to be a property that emerges from the various assets in a community such as human capital, built capital and natural capital. Summary - Public Health professionals working with deprived neighbourhoods would be better to focus on what neighbourhoods have or could develop as social capital for living well, rather than on the vague and tangential notion of community resilience.</p

Autism and Intellectual Disability Are Differentially Related to Sociodemographic Background at Birth

Background: Research findings investigating the sociodemographics of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have been inconsistent and rarely considered the presence of intellectual disability (ID). Methods: We used population data on Western Australian singletons born from 1984 to 1999 (n = 398,353) to examine the sociodemographic characteristics of children diagnosed with ASD with or without ID, or ID without ASD compared with non-affected children. Results: The profiles for the four categories examined, mild-moderate ID, severe ID, ASD without ID and ASD with ID varied considerably and we often identified a gradient effect where the risk factors for mild-moderate ID and ASD without ID were at opposite extremes while those for ASD with ID were intermediary. This was demonstrated clearly with increased odds of ASD without ID amongst older mothers aged 35 years and over (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69 [CI: 1.18, 2.43]), first born infants (OR = 2.78; [CI: 1.67, 4.54]), male infants (OR = 6.57 [CI: 4.87, 8.87]) and increasing socioeconomic advantage. In contrast, mild-moderate ID was associated with younger mothers aged less than 20 years (OR = 1.88 [CI: 1.57, 2.25]), paternal age greater than 40 years (OR = 1.59 [CI: 1.36, 1.86]), Australian-born and Aboriginal mothers (OR = 1.60 [CI: 1.41, 1.82]), increasing birth order and increasing social disadvantage (OR = 2.56 [CI: 2.27, 2.97]). Mothers of infants residing in regional or remote areas had consistently lower risk of ASD or ID and may be linked to reduced access to services or underascertainment rather than a protective effect of location. Conclusions: The different risk profiles observed between groups may be related to aetiological differences or ascertainment factors or both. Untangling these pathways is challenging but an urgent public health priority in view of the supposed autism epidemic

Incidence of Schizophrenia and Other Psychoses in England, 1950–2009: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

Background We conducted a systematic review of incidence rates in England over a sixty-year period to determine the extent to which rates varied along accepted (age, sex) and less-accepted epidemiological gradients (ethnicity, migration and place of birth and upbringing, time). Objectives To determine variation in incidence of several psychotic disorders as above. Data Sources Published and grey literature searches (MEDLINE, PSycINFO, EMBASE, CINAHL, ASSIA, HMIC), and identification of unpublished data through bibliographic searches and author communication. Study Eligibility Criteria Published 1950–2009; conducted wholly or partially in England; original data on incidence of non-organic adult-onset psychosis or one or more factor(s) pertaining to incidence. Participants People, 16–64 years, with first -onset psychosis, including non-affective psychoses, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, psychotic depression and substance-induced psychosis. Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods Title, abstract and full-text review by two independent raters to identify suitable citations. Data were extracted to a standardized extraction form. Descriptive appraisals of variation in rates, including tables and forest plots, and where suitable, random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions to test specific hypotheses; rate heterogeneity was assessed by the I2-statistic. Results 83 citations met inclusion. Pooled incidence of all psychoses (N = 9) was 31.7 per 100,000 person-years (95%CI: 24.6–40.9), 23.2 (95%CI: 18.3–29.5) for non-affective psychoses (N = 8), 15.2 (95%CI: 11.9–19.5) for schizophrenia (N = 15) and 12.4 (95%CI: 9.0–17.1) for affective psychoses (N = 7). This masked rate heterogeneity (I2: 0.54–0.97), possibly explained by socio-environmental factors; our review confirmed (via meta-regression) the typical age-sex interaction in psychosis risk, including secondary peak onset in women after 45 years. Rates of most disorders were elevated in several ethnic minority groups compared with the white (British) population. For example, for schizophrenia: black Caribbean (pooled RR: 5.6; 95%CI: 3.4–9.2; N = 5), black African (pooled RR: 4.7; 95%CI: 3.3–6.8; N = 5) and South Asian groups in England (pooled RR: 2.4; 95%CI: 1.3–4.5; N = 3). We found no evidence to support an overall change in the incidence of psychotic disorder over time, though diagnostic shifts (away from schizophrenia) were reported. Limitations Incidence studies were predominantly cross-sectional, limiting causal inference. Heterogeneity, while evidencing important variation, suggested pooled estimates require interpretation alongside our descriptive systematic results. Conclusions and Implications of Key Findings Incidence of psychotic disorders varied markedly by age, sex, place and migration status/ethnicity. Stable incidence over time, together with a robust socio-environmental epidemiology, provides a platform for developing prediction models for health service planning

Moderated online social therapy for carers of young people recovering from first-episode psychosis: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: First-episode psychosis most often has its onset during late adolescence. In caring for the young person, families endure high levels of stress and depression. Meanwhile, the social networks of families often erode. Our group has previously shown that family cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) leads to significantly improved perceived stress compared with specialist first-episode treatment as usual; however, there are well-known barriers to the dissemination of effective family interventions. To address this, we have developed a novel online intervention entitled ‘Altitudes’ that fully integrates purpose-built online social networking, expert and peer moderation, and evidence-based psychoeducation within a single application. The primary aim of this trial is to evaluate the effectiveness of Altitudes in reducing stress in carers over a 6-month period. METHODS/DESIGN: We describe here a single-blinded cluster randomised controlled trial (cRCT) with permutated blocks. The clusters comprise individual families. The two treatment conditions include Altitudes plus Specialist Treatment as Usual (STAU) and STAU alone. Altitudes involves participation in our novel online programme whereas STAU comprises specialist family work at the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC), Melbourne, Australia. We aim to recruit 160 family members of young, 15–27 year-old, patients registered for treatment for first-episode psychosis (FEP) at EPPIC. The design includes two assessment time points, namely, baseline and 6-month follow-up. The study is due for completion within 2 years including an 18-month recruitment period and a 6-month treatment phase. The primary outcome is carers’ perceived stress at 6 months. Secondary outcome measures include a biomarker of stress, depressive symptoms, worry, substance use, loneliness, social support, satisfaction with life, and a range of measures that tap into coping resources. We seek to gain a dynamic picture of carer stress through our Smartphone Ecological Momentary Assessment (SEMA) tool. DISCUSSION: This is the first randomised controlled trial designed to evaluate an online intervention for carers of young people recovering from FEP. It has the potential to produce evidence in support of a highly novel, accessible, and cost-effective intervention to reduce stress in carers who are providing support to young people at a critical phase in their recovery from psychosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, identifier: ACTRN12616000968471. Retrospectively registered on 22 July 2016. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1775-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

More sustainable management of pollution: integrated approach, models and tools

The PUrE (Pollutants in the Urban Environment) research consortium is developing anew decision-support framework for the integrated assessment of options for moresustainable management of urban pollution. This framework involves three steps: (i)mapping the flow of pollutants associated with human activities; (ii) modelling the fateand transport of pollutants in the environment; and (iii) quantifying the environmental,health and socio-economic impacts of urban pollution. The new decision-supportframework provides an integrated approach which will facilitate the comparison ofdifferent management options based on their sustainability. The decision-supportframework includes a suite of different models and tools, to support the sustainabilityappraisal of two or more options, for example: life cycle assessment, source(emissions) characterisation, pollutant fate and transport modelling, environmentalimpact assessment, health impact analysis, ecological impacts assessment, andmulti-criteria decision analysis. This paper presents examples of the methodologiesused by the project researchers to develop various elements of the framework. Thenew framework can be used at different levels, for example, to conduct a simplescreening study as well as for a more detailed assessment. This paper describesmany details of the framework and outlines several case studies developed todemonstrate its application