Economic and physical determinants of the global distributions of crop pests and pathogens.

© 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.Crop pests and pathogens pose a significant and growing threat to food security, but their geographical distributions are poorly understood. We present a global analysis of pest and pathogen distributions, to determine the roles of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in determining pest diversity, controlling for variation in observational capacity among countries. Known distributions of 1901 pests and pathogens were obtained from CABI. Linear models were used to partition the variation in pest species per country amongst predictors. Reported pest numbers increased with per capita gross domestic product (GDP), research expenditure and research capacity, and the influence of economics was greater in micro-organisms than in arthropods. Total crop production and crop diversity were the strongest physical predictors of pest numbers per country, but trade and tourism were insignificant once other factors were controlled. Islands reported more pests than mainland countries, but no latitudinal gradient in species richness was evident. Country wealth is likely to be a strong indicator of observational capacity, not just trade flow, as has been interpreted in invasive species studies. If every country had US levels of per capita GDP, then 205 ± 9 additional pests per country would be reported, suggesting that enhanced investment in pest observations will reveal the hidden threat of crop pests and pathogens.BBSR

Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

PublishedJournal ArticleThis is the final version of the article. Available from Royal Society via the DOI in this record.Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.We thank Gerry and Clemencia Brown for their sponsorship of A.D. S.G. acknowledges support from the University of Utrecht

The global spread of crop pests and pathogens

AcceptedArticle in PressCopyright © 2014 The Authors. Global Ecology and Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.Aim: To describe the patterns and trends in the spread of crop pests and pathogens around the world, and determine the socioeconomic, environmental and biological factors underlying the rate and degree of redistribution of crop-destroying organisms. Location: Global. Methods: Current country- and state-level distributions of 1901 pests and pathogens and historical observation dates for 424 species were compared with potential distributions based upon distributions of host crops. The degree of 'saturation', i.e. the fraction of the potential distribution occupied, was related to pest type, host range, crop production, climate and socioeconomic variables using linear models. Results: More than one-tenth of all pests have reached more than half the countries that grow their hosts. If current trends continue, many important crop-producing countries will be fully saturated with pests by the middle of the century. While dispersal increases with host range overall, fungi have the narrowest host range but are the most widely dispersed group. The global dispersal of some pests has been rapid, but pest assemblages remain strongly regionalized and follow the distributions of their hosts. Pest assemblages are significantly correlated with socioeconomics, climate and latitude. Tropical staple crops, with restricted latitudinal ranges, tend to be more saturated with pests and pathogens than temperate staples with broad latitudinal ranges. We list the pests likely to be the most invasive in coming years. Main conclusions: Despite ongoing dispersal of crop pests and pathogens, the degree of biotic homogenization of the globe remains moderate and regionally constrained, but is growing. Fungal pathogens lead the global invasion of agriculture, despite their more restricted host range. Climate change is likely to influence future distributions. Improved surveillance would reveal greater levels of invasion, particularly in developing countries. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.BBSR

Detection of mRNA using the BIACORE

We present the detection of native mRNA using the BIACORE system. The influence of different probes and flow rates on the detection is shown and compared to the hybridisation of oligonucleotides. Probes for mRNA detection were chosen by calculations of secondary structures using energy minimizing criteria based on the algorithm of Zuker. Probe concentrations were optimised as well as the regeneration conditions for the sensor surface. The influence of the flow rate appeared to be more marked for mRNA than for oligonucleotide hybridisation

The fossil record of early tetrapods: worker effort and the end-Permian mass extinction

It is important to understand the quality of the fossil record of early tetrapods (Tetrapoda, minus Lissamphibia and Amniota) because of their key role in the transition of vertebrates from water to land, their dominance of terrestrial faunas for over 100 million years of the late Palaeozoic and earlyMesozoic, and their variable fates during the end−Permian mass extinction. The first description of an early tetrapod dates back to 1824, and since then discoveries have occurred at a rather irregular pace, with peaks and troughs corresponding to some of the vicissitudes of human history through the past two centuries. As expected, the record is dominated by the well−sampled sedimentary basins of Europe and North America, but finds from other continents are increasing rapidly. Comparisons of snapshots of knowledge in 1900, 1950, and 2000 show that discovery of new species has changed the shape of the species−level diversification curve, contrary to earlier studies of family−level taxa. There is, however, little evidence that taxon counts relate to research effort (as counted by numbers of publications), and there are no biasing effects associated with differential study of different time intervals through the late Palaeozoic and Mesozoic. In fact, levels of effort are apparently not related to geological time, with no evidence that workers have spent more time on more recent parts of the record. In particular, the end−Permian mass extinction was investigated to determine whether diversity changes through that interval might reflect worker effort: it turns out that most records of early tetrapod taxa (when corrected for duration of geological series) occur in the Lower Triassic

Genetic steps to organ laterality in zebrafish.

All internal organs are asymmetric along the left-right axis. Here we report a genetic screen to discover mutations which perturb organ laterality. Our particular focus is upon whether, and how, organs are linked to each other as they achieve their laterally asymmetric positions. We generated mutations by ENU mutagenesis and examined F3 progeny using a cocktail of probes that reveal early primordia of heart, gut, liver and pancreas. From the 750 genomes examined, we isolated seven recessive mutations which affect the earliest left-right positioning of one or all of the organs. None of these mutations caused discernable defects elsewhere in the embryo at the stages examined. This is in contrast to those mutations we reported previously (Chen et al., 1997) which, along with left-right abnormalities, cause marked perturbation in gastrulation, body form or midline structures. We find that the mutations can be classified on the basis of whether they perturb relationships among organ laterality. In Class 1 mutations, none of the organs manifest any left-right asymmetry. The heart does not jog to the left and normally leftpredominant BMP4 in the early heart tube remains symmetric. The gut tends to remain midline. There frequently is a remarkable bilateral duplication of liver and pancreas. Embryos with Class 2 mutations have organotypic asymmetry but, in any given embryo, organ positions can be normal, reversed or randomized. Class 3 reveals a hitherto unsuspected gene that selectively affects laterality of heart. We find that visceral organ positions are predicted by the direction of the preceding cardiac jog. We interpret this as suggesting that normally there is linkage between cardiac and visceral organ laterality. Class 1 mutations, we suggest, effectively remove the global laterality signals, with the consequence that organ positions are effectively symmetrical. Embryos with Class 2 mutations do manifest linkage among organs, but it may be reversed, suggesting that the global signals may be present but incorrectly orientated in some of the embryos. That laterality decisions of organs may be independently perturbed, as in the Class 3 mutation, indicates that there are distinctive pathways for reception and organotypic interpretation of the global signals

Evaluation of patient-reported outcome protocol content and reporting in UK cancer clinical trials: the EPiC study qualitative protocol.

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are increasingly included within cancer clinical trials. If appropriately collected, analysed and transparently reported, these data might provide invaluable evidence to inform patient care. However, there is mounting indication that the design and reporting of PRO data in cancer trials may be suboptimal. This programme of research will establish via three interlinked studies whether these findings are applicable to UK cancer trials, and if so, how to best enhance the way PROs are assessed, managed and reported in clinical trials. This study will explore with key stakeholders factors that influence optimal PRO protocol content, implementation and reporting and make recommendations for training and guidance.Semistructured interviews will be conducted with members of key stakeholder groups. The purposive sample of up to 48 participants will include: (1) trial chief investigators, trial management group members, statisticians and research nurses of cancer trials including primary or secondary PRO recruited via the National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) Clinical Studies Group and Consumer Liaison Group and the UK Clinical Research Collaboration Registered UK Clinical Trial Unit Network; (2) NCRI Consumer Liaison Group members; (3) international experts in PRO oncology trial design; and (4) journal editors and funding bodies. Data will be analysed using directed thematic analysis employing a coding frame and modified as analysis progresses. Formal triangulation of coding and member checking will be employed to enhance credibility.This study was approved by the University of Birmingham Ethics Committee (Ref: ERN_17-0085). Findings will be disseminated via conference presentations, peer-reviewed journals, patient groups and social media (@CPROR_UoB; http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/cpror)

Glibenclamide in the treatment for gestational diabetes mellitus in a compared study to insulin

OBJECTIVES: To study glibenclamide as a treatment for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and its impact on newborn birth weight and neonatal glycemia as compared to insulin. METHODS: A randomized and open-label clinical trial, conducted from October 1st, 2003 to March 8, 2005. Seventy-two pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus requiring drug therapy were randomized and allocated into two groups - insulin and glibenclamide. RESULTS: The general characteristics in both groups were similar, except for the results of the 75 g OGTT, which were higher in the glibenclamide group (p= 0.02). Maternal fasting and postprandial glucose levels presented no difference. Six (18.75%) pregnant women received the maximum dose of glibenclamide with no glycemic control. The birth weight was higher in the group treated with glibenclamide (p= 0.01), and the incidence of macrosomic newborns statistically different (p= 0.01). Neonatal hypoglycemia was more frequent (p= 0.01) in newborns of glibenclamide group, with one single case of persistent hypoglycemia. CONCLUSION: Glibenclamide can be the first line drug for glycemic control in most GDM patients. The birth weight and incidence of hypoglycemia were higher in the glibenclamide group, but with one single case of persistent hypoglycemia that required intravenous infusion of glucose.OBJETIVOS: Estudar a glibenclamida no tratamento do diabete melito gestacional (DMG) e sua repercussão no peso e na glicemia do recém-nascido (RN), em comparação com a insulina. MÉTODOS: Ensaio clínico randomizado e aberto, realizado entre 1º de outubro de 2003 e 8 de março de 2005. Foram sujeitas 72 gestantes com DMG que necessitaram de terapêutica complementar, sendo randomizadas em dois grupos: insulina e glibenclamida. RESULTADOS: As características gerais nos grupos não apresentaram diferença estatística, com exceção dos resultados do TTOG 75 g, que apresentaram valores maiores no grupo da glibenclamida (p= 0,02). As glicemias médias maternas não apresentaram diferença. Seis (18,75%) gestantes atingiram a dose máxima de glibenclamida sem o controle glicêmico. O peso dos RNs foi maior no grupo tratado com glibenclamida (p= 0,01), com diferença na incidência de macrossômico (p= 0,01). A hipoglicemia neonatal estava mais presente (p= 0,01) nos RNs do grupo da glibenclamida, porém com apenas um caso de hipoglicemia persistente. CONCLUSÃO: A glibenclamida pode ser a droga de escolha para tratamento do DMG na maioria das pacientes.Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) EPM Departamento de ObstetríciaMaternidade Darcy VargasUniversidade da Região de JoinvilleUNIFESP, EPM, Depto. de ObstetríciaSciEL

High-resolution computed tomography reconstructions of invertebrate burrow systems

The architecture of biogenic structures can be highly influential in determining species contributions to major soil and sediment processes, but detailed 3-D characterisations are rare and descriptors of form and complexity are lacking. Here we provide replicate high-resolution micro-focus computed tomography (μ-CT) data for the complete burrow systems of three co-occurring, but functionally contrasting, sediment-dwelling inter-tidal invertebrates assembled alone, and in combination, in representative model aquaria. These data (≤2,000 raw image slices aquarium−1, isotropic voxel resolution, 81 μm) provide reference models that can be used for the development of novel structural analysis routines that will be of value within the fields of ecology, pedology, geomorphology, palaeobiology, ichnology and mechanical engineering. We also envisage opportunity for those investigating transport networks, vascular systems, plant rooting systems, neuron connectivity patterns, or those developing image analysis or statistics related to pattern or shape recognition. The dataset will allow investigators to develop or test novel methodology and ideas without the need to generate a complete three-dimensional computation of exemplar architecture

Using climate information to support crop breeding decisions and adaptation in agriculture

Population growth in the next few decades will increase the need for food production, while the yields of major food crops could be impacted by the changing climate and changing threats from pests and pathogens. Crop breeding, both through conventional techniques, and GM assisted breeding could help meet these challenges, if adequately supported by appropriate information on the future climate. We highlight some of the major challenges for crop breeders and growers in the coming decades, and describe the main characteristics of crop breeding techniques and other adaptation options for agriculture. We review recent uses of climate information to support crop breeding decisions and make recommendations for how this might be improved. We conclude that there is significant potential for breeders to work more closely with climate scientists and crop modellers in order to address the challenges of climate change. It is not yet clear how climate information can best be used. Fruitful areas of investigation include: provision of climate information to identify key target breeding traits and develop improved success criteria (e.g. for heat/drought stress); identification of those conditions under which multiple stress factors (for example, heat stress, mid-season drought stress, flowering drought stress, terminal drought stress) are important in breeding programmes; use of climate information to inform selection of trial sites; identification of the range of environments and locations under which crop trials should be performed (likely to be a wider range of environments than done at present); identification of appropriate duration of trials (likely to be longer than current trials, due to the importance of capturing extreme events); and definition of appropriate methods for incorporating climate information into crop breeding programmes, depending on the specific needs of the breeding programme and the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches. Better knowledge is needed on climate-related thresholds important to crop breeders, for example on the frequency and severity of extreme climate events relevant to the product profile, or to help provide tailored climate analyses (particularly for extreme events). The uncertainties inherent in climate and impact projections provide a particular challenge for translating climate science into actionable outcomes for agriculture. Further work is needed to explore relevant social and economic assumptions such as the level and distribution of real incomes, changing consumption patterns, health impacts, impacts on markets and trade, and the impact of legislation relating to conservation, the environment and climate change