Collective modes of asymmetric nuclear matter in Quantum HadroDynamics

We discuss a fully relativistic Landau Fermi liquid theory based on the Quantum Hadro-Dynamics ($QHD$) effective field picture of Nuclear Matter ({\it NM}). From the linearized kinetic equations we get the dispersion relations of the propagating collective modes. We focus our attention on the dynamical effects of the interplay between scalar and vector channel contributions. A beautiful ``mirror'' structure in the form of the dynamical response in the isoscalar/isovector degree of freedom is revealed, with a complete parallelism in the role respectively played by the compressibility and the symmetry energy. All that strongly supports the introduction of an explicit coupling to the scalar-isovector channel of the nucleon-nucleon interaction. In particular we study the influence of this coupling (to a $\delta$-meson-like effective field) on the collective response of asymmetric nuclear matter ($ANM$). Interesting contributions are found on the propagation of isovector-like modes at normal density and on an expected smooth transition to isoscalar-like oscillations at high baryon density. Important ``chemical'' effects on the neutron-proton structure of the mode are shown. For dilute $ANM$ we have the isospin distillation mechanism of the unstable isoscalar-like oscillations, while at high baryon density we predict an almost pure neutron wave structure of the propagating sounds.Comment: 18 pages (LATEX), 8 Postscript figures, uses "epsfig

Asymmetric nuclear matter:the role of the isovector scalar channel

We try to single out some qualitative new effects of the coupling to the $\delta$-isovector-scalar meson introduced in a minimal way in a phenomenological hadronic field theory. Results for the equation of state ($EOS$) and the phase diagram of asymmetric nuclear matter ($ANM$) are discussed. We stress the consistency of the $\delta$-coupling introduction in a relativistic approach. New contributions to the slope and curvature of the symmetry energy and the neutron-proton effective mass splitting appear particularly interesting. A more repulsive $EOS$ for neutron matter at high baryon densities is expected. Effects on new critical properties of warm $ANM$, mixing of mechanical and chemical instabilities and isospin distillation, are also presented. The $\delta$ influence is mostly on the {\it isovectorlike} collective response. The results are largely analytical and this makes the physical meaning quite transparent. Implications for nuclear structure properties of drip-line nuclei and for reaction dynamics with Radioactive Beams are finally pointed out.Comment: 12 pages, 10 Postscript figure

Computational Nuclear Physics and Post Hartree-Fock Methods

We present a computational approach to infinite nuclear matter employing Hartree-Fock theory, many-body perturbation theory and coupled cluster theory. These lectures are closely linked with those of chapters 9, 10 and 11 and serve as input for the correlation functions employed in Monte Carlo calculations in chapter 9, the in-medium similarity renormalization group theory of dense fermionic systems of chapter 10 and the Green's function approach in chapter 11. We provide extensive code examples and benchmark calculations, allowing thereby an eventual reader to start writing her/his own codes. We start with an object-oriented serial code and end with discussions on strategies for porting the code to present and planned high-performance computing facilities.Comment: 82 pages, to appear in Lecture Notes in Physics (Springer), "An advanced course in computational nuclear physics: Bridging the scales from quarks to neutron stars", M. Hjorth-Jensen, M. P. Lombardo, U. van Kolck, Editor

Nail lacquer films’ surface energies and in vitro water-resistance and adhesion do not predict their in vivo residence

The in vivo residence of nail lacquers (which are ideal topical drug carriers for the treatment of nail diseases) determines their frequency of application, and is thereby expected to influence patient adherence and success of treatment. Thus in vitro measurements to indicate lacquers’ in vivo residence are routinely conducted during formulation development. However the literature on in vitro-in vivo correlations is severely limited. Thus, the aim of the work discussed in this paper was to investigate correlations between in vivo residence and in vitro film resistance to water, in vitro film adhesion and surface energy of lacquer films. In vivo measurements were conducted on fingernails in six volunteers. Seven commercially available nail lacquers were tested in commonly-used measurements. Correlations between in vivo residence and in vitro water resistance and adhesion were found to be extremely poor. The surface energies of the lacquer films (which were between 33 and 39 mJ/m2) were also not predictive of in vivo residence. High density polyethylene (HDPE) sheet – whose surface energy was determined to be similar to that of the human nailplate – was found to be a suitable model for the nailplate (when investigating surface energy) and was used in a number of experiments

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. Findings: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. Interpretation: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation