The didactic value of linking models: experiences from the LEI model funnel

The complexity of agri-environmental economic issues is such that a model that is fully consistent at all levels of aggregation and all type of questions to be addressed is not available at the Agricultural Economics Research Institute in the Hague LEI. Such a model is probably also not feasible. At LEI this problem is solved by linking models at different scales of analysis: global economic, national economy-wide, regional agricultural, national spatial and farm levels. This linked model system enlarges scope and consistency of the analysis. The goal of the model linking, however, is not a full integration and, ultimately, simultaneous optimization of the models. Therefore, the different models of the LEI model funnel are often rather loosely linked. Hence, it is not surprising that the models sometimes produce different results even for the shared variables. This article describes the difficulties to share and exchange information between different models and identifies possible solutions which aim at a more consistent analysis along the models combined at LEI while maintaining the diversity of modelling approaches

EFFECTS OF A POTENTIAL NEW BIOFUEL DIRECTIVE ON EU LAND USE AND AGRICULTURAL MARKETS

In its Progress Report on Biofuels the European Commission proposes a more restrictive biofuel directive which sets a mandatory minimum share of biofuels in total fuel consumption in the transport sector of 10% per Member State by 2020. This is likely to have a strong impact on demand for biofuel inputs such as plant oils, cereals and sugar beet. To analyze the effects of this proposal on land use and agricultural markets, an extended version of the partial equilibrium model ESIM of the European agricultural sector is developed and applied which covers the production of and demand for biofuels. Two policy scenarios are simulated for the projection horizon until 2020: a baseline under which the share of biofuels in total transport fuels increases to 6.9% by 2020, and a scenario with a more demanding biofuel directive resulting in a 10% share. Results show that a substantial part of the policy-induced demand for biofuels is covered by imports of biofuels and biofuel inputs. Especially after the implementation of a potential Doha agreement, EU production of bioethanol strongly decreases, while almost all bioethanol demand is covered by imports.Biofuels, EU Biofuels Directive, agricultural markets, partial equilibrium modeling, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Budgetary Effects of Including the CEC into Dynamic Modulation

The EU Commission suggests to exclude CEC from the dynamic modulation mechanism, being part of the MTR package. This article looks at the distributional aspects of including the CEC into dynamic modulation. Under the current accession proposal the CEC would account for only 18% of the rural development budget by 2006. If modulation would be realised with the CEC being excluded this share would drop to 14% by 2010. According to the criteria proposed by the Commission for the distribution of the modulation budget the CEC would get a higher share of the modulation budget if they were included as they account for high shares in agricultural area and employment, and their GDP per capita is relatively low. Based on the assumptions made for this article they would be eligible for about 66% of the modulation budget. As a result of their participation in the modulation mechanism their share in the rural development budget would be at 30% by 2010. The financial net gains for the CEC from participation are estimated to be at 1.7 bln. €.Modulation, EU-enlargement, CAP-budget, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Predicting private and public helping behaviour by implicit attitudes and the motivation to control prejudiced reactions

The role of individual differences in implicit attitudes toward homosexuals and motivation to control prejudiced reactions (MCPR) in predicting private and public helping behaviour was investigated. After assessing the predictor variables, 69 male students were informed about a campaign of a local gay organization. They were provided with an opportunity to donate money and sign a petition in the presence (public setting) or absence (private setting) of the experimenter. As expected, more helping behaviour was shown in the public than in the private setting. But while the explicit cognitive attitude accounted for helping behaviour in both settings, an implicit attitude x MCPR interaction accounted for additional variability of helping in the public setting only. Three different mediating processes are discussed as possible causes of the observed effects

Impact of different biofuel policy options on agricultural production and land use in Germany

biofuel, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The didactic value of linking models: experiences from the LEI model funnel

The complexity of agri-environmental economic issues is such that a model that is fully consistent at all levels of aggregation and all type of questions to be addressed is not available at the Agricultural Economics Research Institute in the Hague LEI. Such a model is probably also not feasible. At LEI this problem is solved by linking models at different scales of analysis: global economic, national economy-wide, regional agricultural, national spatial and farm levels. This linked model system enlarges scope and consistency of the analysis. The goal of the model linking, however, is not a full integration and, ultimately, simultaneous optimization of the models. Therefore, the different models of the LEI model funnel are often rather loosely linked. Hence, it is not surprising that the models sometimes produce different results even for the shared variables. This article describes the difficulties to share and exchange information between different models and identifies possible solutions which aim at a more consistent analysis along the models combined at LEI while maintaining the diversity of modelling approaches.economic models, combined models, quantitative policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF EU SUGAR MARKET LIBERALIZATION ON AREA ALLOCATION, PRODUCTION AND TRADE

This paper presents a partial equilibrium simulation analysis of EU sugar market reforms with a version of the European Simulation Model (ESIM) addressing three issues: preferential EU imports are a function of the price differential between world market and EU price, EU supply functions are estimated based on FADN data, and the production of bioethanol in the EU and the rest of the world is taken into account as an important component in sugar beet and sugar cane demand. It is found that the current sugar market reform including the restructuring process until the end of 2007 is sufficient to allow the EU to comply with its WTO commitments only very narrowly. EU sugar supply is simulated to decrease from roughly 19 million tons in the base period to 15.5 million tons by 2015 and the EU price remains at a level of about 450 €/t and thus significantly above the reference price. In case of full liberalization production in the EU is projected to decrease to 7.5 million tonnes by 2015.Sugar, Common Agricultural Policy, Sugar Market Reform, Partial Equilibrium Modelling, Everything But Arms, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

The Impact of Domestic and Global Biofuel Mandates on the German Agricultural Sector

The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of domestic and global biofuel policies on Germany's agricultural sector. The central part of our study is divided into four sections. Section 2 presents in detail the issues that make biofuels a debated topic in today's economic policies. Fundamental aspects of our energy consumption patterns and the geographic location of our natural resources are highlighted together with a quantitative analysis of the recent surge in biofuels output capacity and estimates of their near-future deployment. An introduction to current and future biofuels production technologies is coupled with an overview of recent studies that assess their net contribution to harmful gaseous emissions and energy efficiency. The concerns associated with rising food prices and their likely causes are then briefly examined. Section 3 provides a thorough description of the subsidy, taxation and protection measures granted to biofuels across the world. Current governmental policies in the EU and its member states are given special attention. Section 4 presents the current literature on economic modelling and focuses on partial equilibrium (AGLINK-COSIMO, Impact, Esim, etc.) and general equilibrium frameworks (EPPA, GTAP, etc.). Section 5 simulates the impact of domestic and global biofuel policies in Germany within a Computable General Equilibrium framework. The LEITAP model is introduced. A description of the analysed scenarios is given on the basis of the envisaged biofuel blending mandates described in section 3. The simulation results are then evaluated with respect to production, prices, international trade and land use of the relevant commodities. The outcome clearly indicates that current biofuels policies significantly affect food markets as well as land allocation. The conclusion summarizes the main findings of our study and draws a comparison with results of other publications.

Consequences of EU Biofuel Policies on Agricultural Production and Land Use

This article assesses the implications of European Union (EU) biofuel policies based on a general equilibrium framework with endogenous land supply. The results show that, without policy intervention to stimulate the use of biofuel crops, the targets set by the EU Biofuels Directive will not be met. European biofuel policies boosting demand for biofuel crops have a strong impact on agriculture globally and within Europe, leading to an increase in land use. On the other hand, the long–term declining trend in real agricultural prices may slow down or even reverse

Irregular flow of Persian (Arabian) Gulf water to the Arabian Sea

The bottom outflow from the Persian (Arabian) Gulf, which intrudes in the Gulf of Oman as an intermediate salinity maximum and spreads in the northern Arabian Sea, was inferred to be seasonal. Also, based on particular expedition, single values of temperatures, salinities, and oxygen concentrations were assumed as end members for this core layer. From historical data it is shown here that the salinity of the water exiting at depth from the Gulf is first reduced to \u3c40 ppt by mixing with Gulf of Oman water in the shallow Strait of Hormuz with its strong tides. The core layer acquires its characteristics when the mixing product descends the outer shelf at the head of the Gulf of Oman and entrains upper-thermocline water with an intermediate to low oxygen content above the outflow. After leaving the seabed, when mixing with water also below the intrusion begins, the maximal values observed in the core layer for salinity, density (sigma-t), and oxygen saturation ranged between 37.5 and 38.0 ppt, 26.30 and 26.95 g dm−3, and approximately 20 and 60%, respectively (eight expeditions, with two for oxygen; in all, 15 temporally separated cruises). Rules about this variability could not be recognized, except that the oxygen content in the freshly formed core layer seems to be highest in spring and lowest in fall. At the head of the Gulf of Oman, one intrusion was always present; at least three times, two intrusions of nearly the same density were encountered, as is common also several 100 km away from the source region. Persistent presence of the core layer at the head, but absence near the mouth of the Gulf of Oman in the spring of one year, and presence during the following spring (five cruises between May 1975 and August 1976) do not indicate a marked seasonal pattern of the outflow. Within at least 1,000 km from the Strait of Hormuz, advection clearly participates in the lateral spreading of the core layer