Bipolar at-risk criteria: an examination of which clinical features have optimal utility for identifying youth at risk of early transition from depression to bipolar disorders

Background: A clinical and research challenge is to identify which depressed youth are at risk of “early transition to bipolar disorders (ET-BD).” This 2-part study (1) examines the clinical utility of previously reported BD at-risk (BAR) criteria in differentiating ET-BD cases from unipolar depression (UP) controls; and (2) estimates the Number Needed to Screen (NNS) for research and general psychiatry settings. Methods: Fifty cases with reliably ascertained, ET-BD I  and II cases were matched for gender and birth year with 50 UP controls who did not develop BD over 2 years. We estimated the clinical utility for finding true cases and screening out non-cases for selected risk factors and their NNS. Using a convenience sample (N = 80), we estimated the NNS when adjustments were made to account for data missing from clinical case notes. Results: Sub-threshold mania, cyclothymia, family history of BD, atypical depression symptoms and probable antidepressant-emergent elation, occurred significantly more frequently in ET-BD youth. Each of these “BARDepression” criteria demonstrated clinical utility for screening out non-cases. Only cyclothymia demonstrated good utility for case finding in research settings; sub-threshold mania showed moderate utility. In the convenience sample, the NNS for each criterion ranged from ~4 to 7.  Conclusions: Cyclothymia showed the optimum profile for case finding, screening and NNS in research settings. However, its presence or absence was only reported in 50% of case notes. Future studies of ET-BD instruments should distinguish which criteria have clinical utility for case finding vs screening

Cause for concern in the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medications in the community -a population-based study

Background: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) medications are a common cause of reported adverse drug side-effects. This study describes the prevalence of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) use (other than low-dose aspirin) and the presence of co-existing relative contraindications to NSAID use and chronic conditions in a representative population sample. Methods: Data were analysed from 3,206 adults attending first follow-up of the North West Adelaide Health Study (NWAHS) in 2004 - 2006, a longitudinal representative population study. Medications were brought into study clinic visits by participants. Clinical assessment included measured blood pressure, kidney function, serum cholesterol, blood glucose. Questionnaires assessed demographics, lifestyle risk factors, physician-diagnosed chronic conditions. Data were weighted to census measures by region, age group, gender, and probability of selection in the household, to provide population representative estimates. Pearson's Chi-square tests determined significant differences in proportions. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine associations of socio-demographic characteristics with use of NSAIDs. Results: Of 3,175 participants, 357 (11.2%), and 16% of those aged > 55 years, reported using either non-specific NSAIDs or COX-2 inhibitors, other than low-dose aspirin. Among people using NSAIDs, 60.8% had hypertension, 30.8% had Stage 3 or higher chronic kidney disease, 17.2% had a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 20.7% had a > 15% 10-year CVD risk. The prevalence of NSAID use among people with hypertension was 16%, with kidney disease 15.9%, and a history of CVD 20.0%. Among people taking diuretics, 24.1% were also taking NSAIDs, and of those taking medications for gastro-esophageal reflux, 24.7% were on NSAIDs. Prescription-only COX-2 inhibitors, but not other NSAIDs, were used more by people > 75 years than by 35-54 year olds (OR 3.7, 95% CI 2.0, 6.7), and also were more commonly used by people with hypertension, cardiac and kidney disease. Conclusions: There is a high prevalence of current NSAID use among groups at-risk for significant drug-related adverse events or who have major chronic conditions that are relative contraindications to NSAID use. Assessment of absolute risks regarding cardiovascular and kidney disease need to take into account use of medications such as NSAIDs. The potential to make a substantial impact on chronic disease burden via improved use of NSAIDs is considerable.Robert J Adams, Sarah L Appleton, Tiffany K Gill, Anne W Taylor, David H Wilson and Catherine L Hil

High yield of culture-based diagnosis in a TB-endemic setting

BACKGROUND: In most of the world, microbiologic diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) is limited to microscopy. Recent guidelines recommend culture-based diagnosis where feasible. METHODS: In order to evaluate the relative and absolute incremental diagnostic yield of culture-based diagnosis in a high-incidence community in Cape Town, South Africa, subjects evaluated for suspected TB had their samples processed for microscopy and culture over a 21 month period. RESULTS: For 2537 suspect episodes with 2 smears and 2 cultures done, 20.0% (508) had at least one positive smear and 29.9% (760) had at least one positive culture. One culture yielded 1.8 times more cases as 1 smear (relative yield), or an increase of 12.0% (absolute yield). Based on the latter value, the number of cultures needed to diagnose (NND) one extra case of TB was 8, compared to 19 if second specimens were submitted for microscopy. CONCLUSION: In a high-burden setting, the introduction of culture can markedly increase TB diagnosis over microscopy. The concept of number needed to diagnose can help in comparing incremental yield of diagnosis methods. Although new promising diagnostic molecular methods are being implemented, TB culture is still the gold standard