Crustal deformation at the Sumatran Subduction Zone revealed by coral rings

Analyses of coral rings grown in the interval 1970–1997 reveal a geographically distinct pattern of interseismic uplift off Sumatra's western coast. At distances less than 110 km from the Sumatran trench, coral reefs are submerging as fast as 5 mm/y. At 130 and 180 km distance from the trench, they are emerging at similar rates. We suggest that a locked, or partially locked patch, located above 30 km depth on the upper surface of the subducting oceanic plate, generates this pattern

Interseismic deformation above the Sunda Megathrust recorded in coral microatolls of the Mentawai islands, West Sumatra

The geomorphology and internal stratigraphy of modern coral microatolls show that all the outer arc Mentawai islands of West Sumatra have been subsiding over the past several decades. These same islands rose as much as 3 m during the giant megathrust earthquakes of 1797 and 1833, and the current subsidence probably reflects strain accumulation that will lead to future large earthquakes. Average subsidence rates over the past half century vary from 2 to 14 mm yr^(−1) and increase southwestward, toward the subduction trench. The pattern is consistent with rates of subsidence measured by a sparse network of continuously recording Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations and with locking of a 400-km-long section of the underlying subduction megathrust, between about 1°S and 4°S. This record of subsidence and tilting, extending nearly a century into the past, implies that the region is advancing toward the occurrence of another giant earthquake. However, evidence of episodic rather than steady subsidence reflects a behavior that is more complex than simple elastic strain accumulation and relief. Most prominent of these episodes is an extensive emergence/subsidence couplet in about 1962, which may be the result of rapid, aseismic slip on the megathrust, between the islands and the trench. Lower subsidence rates recorded by the corals since about 1985 may reflect failure on many small patches within the locked section of the megathrust

Persistent termini of 2004- and 2005-like ruptures of the Sunda megathrust

To gain insight into the longevity of subduction zone segmentation, we use coral microatolls to examine an 1100-year record of large earthquakes across the boundary of the great 2004 and 2005 Sunda megathrust ruptures. Simeulue, a 100-km-long island off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, straddles this boundary: northern Simeulue was uplifted in the 2004 earthquake, whereas southern Simeulue rose in 2005. Northern Simeulue corals reveal that predecessors of the 2004 earthquake occurred in the 10th century AD, in AD 1394 ± 2, and in AD 1450 ± 3. Corals from southern Simeulue indicate that none of the major uplifts inferred on northern Simeulue in the past 1100 years extended to southern Simeulue. The two largest uplifts recognized at a south-central Simeulue site—around AD 1422 and in 2005—involved little or no uplift of northern Simeulue. The distribution of uplift and strong shaking during a historical earthquake in 1861 suggests the 1861 rupture area was also restricted to south of central Simeulue, as in 2005. The strikingly different histories of the two adjacent patches demonstrate that this boundary has persisted as an impediment to rupture through at least seven earthquakes in the past 1100 years. This implies that the rupture lengths, and hence sizes, of at least some future great earthquakes and tsunamis can be forecast. These microatolls also provide insight into megathrust behavior between earthquakes, revealing sudden and substantial changes in interseismic strain accumulation rates

Rupture and variable coupling behavior of the Mentawai segment of the Sunda megathrust during the supercycle culmination of 1797 to 1833

We refer to periods of subduction strain accumulation beneath the Mentawai Islands, Sumatra, as “supercycles,” because each culminates in a series of partial ruptures of the megathrust in its final decades. The finale of the previous supercycle comprised two giant earthquakes in 1797 and 1833 and whatever happened in between. This behavior between two great ruptures has implications for how the megathrust will behave between its more recent partial failure, during the M_w 8.4 earthquake of 2007, and subsequent large ruptures. We synthesize previously published coral microatoll records and a large new coral data set to constrain not only these two giant ruptures but also the intervening interseismic megathrust behavior. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–2000, as well as models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. The large magnitudes we derive (M_w 8.6–8.8 for 1797 and M_w 8.8–8.9 for 1833) confirm that the 2007 earthquakes released only a fraction of the moment released during the previous rupture sequence. Whereas megathrust behavior leading up to the 1797 and 2007 earthquakes was similar and comparatively simple, behavior between 1797 and 1833 was markedly different and more complex: several patches of the megathrust became weakly coupled following the 1797 earthquake. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they may significantly change the state of coupling on the megathrust for decades to follow, influencing the progression of subsequent ruptures

Multi-proxy validation of glacial-interglacial rainfall variations in southwest Sulawesi

Speleothem δ18O is widely used as a proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics on glacial-interglacial to interannual scales. However, uncertainties in the interpretation of this renowned proxy pose a vexing problem in tropical paleoclimatology. Here, we present paired multi-proxy geochemical measurements for stalagmites from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, and confirm changes in rainfall amount across ice age terminations. Collectively, the stalagmites span two glacial-interglacial transitions from ~380,000 to 330,000 and 230,000 to 170,000 years ago. Mg/Ca in the slow-growing stalagmites is affected by water moving through the karst and prior calcite precipitation, making it a good proxy for changes in local rainfall. When paired, Mg/Ca and δ18O corroborate prominent shifts from drier glacials to wetter interglacials in the core of the Australasian monsoon domain. These shifts in rainfall occur 4,000-7,000 years later than glacial-interglacial increases in global temperature and the associated response of Sulawesi vegetation, determined by speleothem δ13C

New insights on tropical vegetation productivity and atmospheric methane over the last 40,000 years from stalagmites in Sulawesi

Recent research has shown the potential of speleothem δ13C to record a range of environmental processes. Here, we report on 230Th-dated stalagmite δ13C records for southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, over the last 40,000 yr to investigate the relationship between tropical vegetation productivity and atmospheric methane concentrations. We demonstrate that the Sulawesi stalagmite δ13C record is driven by changes in vegetation productivity and soil respiration and explore the link between soil respiration and tropical methane emissions using HadCM3 and the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The model indicates that changes in soil respiration are primarily driven by changes in temperature and CO2, in line with our interpretation of stalagmite δ13C. In turn, modelled methane emissions are driven by soil respiration, providing a mechanism that links methane to stalagmite δ13C. This relationship is particularly strong during the last glaciation, indicating a key role for the tropics in controlling atmospheric methane when emissions from high-latitude boreal wetlands were suppressed. With further investigation, the link between δ13C in stalagmites and tropical methane could provide a low-latitude proxy complementary to polar ice core records to improve our understanding of the glacial–interglacial methane budget

Coral evidence for earthquake recurrence and an A.D. 1390–1455 cluster at the south end of the 2004 Aceh–Andaman rupture

Coral records of relative sea level change provide a history of vertical interseismic and coseismic deformation along the coast of northern Simeulue Island, Sumatra, and reveal details about earthquakes in the 10th and 14th–15th centuries A.D. along the southern end of the December 2004 M_w 9.2 Sunda megathrust rupture. Over a 56 year period between A.D. 1390 and 1455, northern Simeulue experienced a cluster of megathrust ruptures, associated with total uplift that was considerably more than in 2004. Uplifted corals at two sites constrain the first event of the cluster to A.D. 1393 ± 3 and 1394 ± 2 (2σ). A smaller but well-substantiated uplift occurred in northern Simeulue in 1430 ± 3. An inferred third uplift, in A.D. 1450 ± 3, killed all corals on the reef flats of northern Simeulue. The amount of uplift during this third event, though confirmed only to have exceeded 28 and 41 cm at two sites, probably surpassed the 100 and 44 cm that occurred, respectively, at those sites in 2004, and it was likely more than in 2004 over all of northern Simeulue. The evidence for past earthquake clustering combined with the inference of considerably greater uplift in A.D. 1390–1455 than in 2004 suggests that strain may still be stored along the southernmost part of the 2004 rupture. Interseismic subsidence rates recorded by northern Simeulue coral microatolls have varied by up to a factor of 4 at some sites from one earthquake cycle to another

Coral geochemical response to uplift in the aftermath of the 2005 Nias–Simeulue earthquake

On 28 March 2005, the Indonesian islands of Nias and Simeulue experienced a powerful Mw 8.6 earthquake and coseismic uplift and subsidence. In areas of coastal uplift (up to ~ 2.8 m), fringing reef coral communities were killed by exposure, while deeper corals that survived were subjected to habitats with altered runoff, sediment and nutrient regimes. Here we present time-series (2000–2009) of Mn/Ca, Y/Ca and Ba/Ca variability in massive Porites corals from Nias to assess the environmental impact of a wide range of vertical displacement (+ 2.5 m to − 0.4 m). High-resolution LA-ICP-MS measurements show that skeletal Mn/Ca increased at uplifted sites, regardless of reef type, indicating a post-earthquake increase in suspended sediment delivery. Transient and/or long-term increases in skeletal Y/Ca at all uplift sites support the idea of increased sediment delivery. Coral Mn/Ca and Ba/Ca in lagoonal environments highlight the additional influences of reef bathymetry, wind-driven sediment resuspension, and phytoplankton blooms on coral geochemistry. Together, the results show that the Nias reefs adapted to fundamentally altered hydrographic conditions. We show how centuries of repeated subsidence and uplift during great-earthquake cycles along the Sunda megathrust may have shaped the modern-day predominance of massive scleractinian corals on the West Sumatran reefs