Assessing the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone using Bayesian inference

We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and ozone in the tropical upper stratosphere. We find that solar cycle (SC) changes in ozone can be well approximated by considering the ozone response to SSI changes in a small number individual wavelength bands between 176 and 310 nm, operating independently of each other. Additionally, we find that the ozone varies approximately linearly with changes in the SSI. Using these facts, we present a Bayesian formalism for inferring SC SSI changes and uncertainties from measured SC ozone profiles. Bayesian inference is a powerful, mathematically self-consistent method of considering both the uncertainties of the data and additional external information to provide the best estimate of parameters being estimated. Using this method, we show that, given measurement uncertainties in both ozone and SSI datasets, it is not currently possible to distinguish between observed or modelled SSI datasets using available estimates of ozone change profiles, although this might be possible by the inclusion of other external constraints. Our methodology has the potential, using wider datasets, to provide better understanding of both variations in SSI and the atmospheric response.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (accepted), pdf version is in draft mode of Space Weather and Space Climat

Weak-star limits on polynomials and their derivatives

Let μ and v be regular finite Borel measures with compact support in the real line ℝ and define the differential operator D :L ∞(μ) → L ∞(v) with domain equal to the polynomials P by Dp = p′. In this paper we will characterize the weak-star closure of the graph of D in ∞(μ) ⊕ ∞(y). As a consequence we will characterize when D is closable (i.e. the weak-star closure of G contains no non-zero elements of the form o ⊕ g) and when g is weak-star dense in L∞(μ) ⊕ L ∞(v). We will also consider the same problem where μ and v are measures supported on the unit circle T

A new SATIRE-S spectral solar irradiance reconstruction for solar cycles 21--23 and its implications for stratospheric ozone

We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.Comment: 25 pages (18 pages in main article with 6 figures; 7 pages in supplementary materials with 6 figures) in draft mode using the American Meteorological Society package. Submitted to Journal of Atmospheric Sciences for publicatio

Observations and Modelling of Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance

The variation of solar energy entering Earth’s atmosphere, the solar irradiance, is an important influence on the Earth’s climate. Total output of the Sun varies by 0.1% over an 11-year solar cycle and on longer, secular scales there still remains uncertainty. Global temperatures on Earth have increased over the last 160 years along with increasing anthropogenic impact on the environment. It is, therefore, important to fully understand how much of this increase can be attributed to changes in the Sun. This thesis makes use of a semi-empirical version of the Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction model, or SATIRE-S, to reconstruct both total and spectral irradiance variations. The physical basis of SATIRE-S is that all variations in solar irradiance are caused by changes in surface magnetic flux emergence. In this thesis, SATIRE-S is updated to accommodate the input of full-disk continuum image and magnetogram data from ground-based and satellite sources spanning three full solar cycles over the period 1974-2009. These changes are described in detail. The combination of terrestrial and space-based images allows for a reconstruction that, for the first time, has been produced independently to, and therefore provides an unbiased comparison of, the composites of direct radiometric observations of total solar irradiance (TSI), which began in 1978. The excellent agreement with, in particular, the PMOD composite supports the simple model assumptions. It also provides constraints on the influence of other mechanisms that may affect solar irradiance on these timescales. The reconstruction of TSI over three solar cycles provides the opportunity to produce a consistent long-term spectral solar irradiance (SSI) dataset that can be put to use by the climate and atmospheric physics communities. This has been one of the goals of this work. In this thesis, comparisons are made with the new SORCE/SIM broadband spectral observations, which include for the first time the visible and infrared above 400 nm. During the declining phase of the recent solar cycle it is found that there is almost no agreement between the model and instrument on a long-term, cycle-length period, but very good agreement on short-term rotational variation. The influence of the ultra-violet region below 400 nm is important in Earth-based stratospheric chemistry and is a strong influence on both temperature and ozone concentration. Therefore, the SATIRE-S spectral dataset is employed in a simple 2D atmospheric model to evaluate its sensitivity in light of recent spectral irradiance changes suggested by data from the SORCE satellite

Modular bismacycles for the selective C–H arylation of phenols and naphthols

Given the important role played by 2-hydroxybiaryls in organic, medicinal and materials chemistry, concise methods for the synthesis of this common motif are extremely valuable. In seeking to extend the synthetic chemists’ lexicon in this regard, we have developed an expedient and general strategy for the ortho-arylation of phenols and naphthols using readily-available boronic acids. Our methodology relies on in situ generation of a uniquely reactive Bi(V) arylating agent from a bench stable Bi(III) precursor via telescoped B-to-Bi transmetallation and oxidation. By exploiting reactivity 2 that is orthogonal to conventional metal-catalyzed manifolds, diverse aryl and heteroaryl partners can be rapidly coupled to phenols and naphthols under mild conditions. Following arylation, highyielding recovery of the Bi(III) precursor allows for its efficient re-use in subsequent reactions. Mechanistic interrogation of each key step of the methodology informs its practical application and provides fundamental insight into the under-exploited reactivity of organobismuth compounds

Inconsistencies between chemistry-climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998

The stratospheric ozone layer shields surface life from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Following the Montreal Protocol ban on long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), rapid depletion of total column ozone (TCO) ceased in the late 1990s, and ozone above 32 km is now clearly recovering. However, there is still no confirmation of TCO recovery, and evidence has emerged that ongoing quasiglobal (60◦ S–60◦ N) lower stratospheric ozone decreases may be responsible, dominated by low latitudes (30◦ S– 30◦ N). Chemistry–climate models (CCMs) used to project future changes predict that lower stratospheric ozone will decrease in the tropics by 2100 but not at mid-latitudes (30–60◦ ). Here, we show that CCMs display an ozone decline similar to that observed in the tropics over 1998–2016, likely driven by an increase in tropical upwelling. On the other hand, mid-latitude lower stratospheric ozone is observed to decrease, while CCMs that specify real-world historical meteorological fields instead show an increase up to present day. However, these cannot be used to simulate future changes; we demonstrate here that free-running CCMs used for projections also show increases. Despite opposing lower stratospheric ozone changes, which should induce opposite temperature trends, CCMs and observed temperature trends agree; we demonstrate that opposing model– observation stratospheric water vapour (SWV) trends, and their associated radiative effects, explain why temperature changes agree in spite of opposing ozone trends. We provide new evidence that the observed mid-latitude trends can be explained by enhanced mixing between the tropics and extratropics. We further show that the temperature trends are consistent with the observed mid-latitude ozone decrease. Together, our results suggest that large-scale circulation changes expected in the future from increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) may now already be underway but that most CCMs do not simulate mid-latitude ozone layer changes well. However, it is important to emphasise that the periods considered here are short, and internal variability that is both intrinsic to each CCM and different to observed historical variability is not well-characterised and can influence trend estimates. Nevertheless, the reason CCMs do not exhibit the observed changes needs to be identified to allow models to be improved in order to build confidence in future projections of the ozone layer

Recovery of Kidney Function After Acute Kidney Disease - a Multi-Cohort Analysis

Background: There are no consensus definitions for evaluating kidney function recovery after acute kidney injury (AKI) and acute kidney disease (AKD), nor is it clear how recovery varies across populations and clinical subsets. We present a federated analysis of four population-based cohorts from Canada, Denmark, and Scotland, 2011-2018.Methods: We identified incident AKD defined by serum creatinine changes within 48 hours, 7 days, and 90 days based on KDIGO AKI and AKD criteria. Separately, we applied changes up to 365 days to address widely used e-alert implementations that extend beyond the KDIGO AKI and AKD timeframes. Kidney recovery was based on resolution of AKD and a subsequent creatinine measurement below 1.2x baseline. We evaluated transitions between non-recovery, recovery, and death up to one year; within age, sex, and comorbidity subgroups; between subset AKD definitions; and across cohorts.Results: There were 464,868 incident cases, median ages 67-75 years. At one year, results were consistent across cohorts, with pooled mortalities for creatinine changes within 48 hours, 7 days, 90 days and 365 days (and 95% CI) of 40% (34-45%), 40% (34-46%), 37% (31-42%), 22% (16-29%) respectively; and non-recovery of kidney function of 19% (15-23%), 30% (24-35%), 25% (21-29%), 37% (30-43%) respectively. Recovery by 14 and 90 days was frequently not sustained at one year. Older males and those with heart failure or cancer were more likely to die than experience sustained non-recovery, whereas the converse was true for younger females and those with diabetes.Conclusion: Consistently across multiple cohorts, based on one-year mortality and non-recovery, KDIGO AKD (up to 90 days) is at least prognostically similar to KDIGO AKI (7 days), and covers more people. Outcomes associated with AKD vary by age, sex and comorbidities such that older males are more likely to die, and younger females are less likely to recover

Improving together: better science writing through peer learning

Science, in our case the climate and geosciences, is increasingly interdisciplinary. Scientists must therefore communicate across disciplinary boundaries. For this communication to be successful, scientists must write clearly and concisely, yet the historically poor standard of scientific writing does not seem to be improving. Scientific writing must improve, and the key to long-term improvement lies with the early-career scientist (ECS). Many interventions exist for an ECS to improve their writing, like style guides and courses. However, momentum is often difficult to maintain after these interventions are completed. Continuity is key to improving writing. This paper introduces the ClimateSnack project, which aims to motivate ECSs to develop and continue to improve their writing and communication skills. The project adopts a peer-learning framework where ECSs voluntarily form writing groups at different institutes around the world. The group members learn, discuss, and improve their writing skills together. Several ClimateSnack writing groups have formed. This paper examines why some of the groups have flourished and others have dissolved. We identify the challenges involved in making a writing group successful and effective, notably the leadership of self-organized groups, and both individual and institutional time management. Within some of the groups, peer learning clearly offers a powerful tool to improve writing as well as bringing other benefits, including improved general communication skills and increased confidence

Developing and enhancing biodiversity monitoring programmes: a collaborative assessment of priorities

1.Biodiversity is changing at unprecedented rates, and it is increasingly important that these changes are quantified through monitoring programmes. Previous recommendations for developing or enhancing these programmes focus either on the end goals, that is the intended use of the data, or on how these goals are achieved, for example through volunteer involvement in citizen science, but not both. These recommendations are rarely prioritized. 2.We used a collaborative approach, involving 52 experts in biodiversity monitoring in the UK, to develop a list of attributes of relevance to any biodiversity monitoring programme and to order these attributes by their priority. We also ranked the attributes according to their importance in monitoring biodiversity in the UK. Experts involved included data users, funders, programme organizers and participants in data collection. They covered expertise in a wide range of taxa. 3.We developed a final list of 25 attributes of biodiversity monitoring schemes, ordered from the most elemental (those essential for monitoring schemes; e.g. articulate the objectives and gain sufficient participants) to the most aspirational (e.g. electronic data capture in the field, reporting change annually). This ordered list is a practical framework which can be used to support the development of monitoring programmes. 4.People's ranking of attributes revealed a difference between those who considered attributes with benefits to end users to be most important (e.g. people from governmental organizations) and those who considered attributes with greatest benefit to participants to be most important (e.g. people involved with volunteer biological recording schemes). This reveals a distinction between focussing on aims and the pragmatism in achieving those aims. 5.Synthesis and applications. The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes