Structural transformations of the economy in the Pacific Region of Russia and efficiency trends

Pacific Russia is viewed as an aqua-territorial macro-region that encompasses the Far Eastern Federal District and the adjacent water area within the 200-mile maritime economic zone. The macro-region has a wealth of natural resources at land and on sea, opportunities for the use of sea transport to link Russia and Europe with the countries of Asia-Pacific Region. Pacific Russia is divided into 2 latitudinal zones — the northern zone and southern zone, which include the territories of northern and southern constituents of the Russian Far Eastern Federal District. The combinations of activities by constituent entities and latitudinal zones are considered as the territorial structures of the economy. This article reveals the differences in socio-economic capacity and development level of these latitudinal zones. The authors have assessed the structural transformations in the economy of latitudinal zones in 2004–2013 by taking into account the changes of similar activities in the constituent entities and their ratios measured as a share of value added. This allowed to identify the transformations of territorial economic structures in the latitudinal zones. Over this period, the greatest changes of economic structures occurred in the northern zone. In the southern zone, the structural transformations of the economy were smaller, except for the Sakhalin region. In all latitudinal zones, there was a decrease in the share of manufacturing industries and the increase in the share of extractive industries. The article compares the generalized assessment of changes in the social and economic efficiency (by the growth of population income, labor productivity, and profits) with the structural changes in the economy of the constituent entities of Pacific Russia. The authors note that an important premise for building a sufficiently sustainable system of interregional division of labor in Pacific Russia is the location of extractive industries and initial stages of the manufacturing industry activities in the northern zone, while the major manufacturing industries and interregional transport and logistics services are located in the southern zone. This article is intended for experts and students interested in the development problems of Russia’s eastern regions.The article has been prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation Grant “Factors, mechanisms and types of structural transformation and modernization of territorial socio-economic systems in Pacific Russia” (№ 14–18–03185)

Spatial Differentiation of the Economic Structure of the Russian Regions of the Arctic Zone

The Regions located in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation implement an important function in the development of an export potential of the country. The richest nature-resource potential of the land and the sea should be considered as the favorable factors of manufacture development in the Arctic zone. The negative factors constraining the development of the Arctic zone are as follows: severe nature-climatic conditions; considerable remoteness of the region from the subjects of the Russian Federation being socially and economically more developed; weak economic (including infrastructural) mastering of this territory; a low demographic potential of the population. The goal of the studies is to reveal the existing spatial differentiation of the economic activities in the northern latitude areas of the country. The authors have compiled several diagrams and maps to estimate the differences in the branch structure of gross value added of the subjects of the Arctic zone of Russia. Besides that, a variance of the areas’ shares in comparison with the average value of the Russian Federation as a whole has been estimated. The analysis of the features of spatial differentiation of the economic activities of the Arctic regions allows us to determine the certain tendencies of the development of economic structures for the future. The article is intended for those experts and students who are interested in the problems of the development of the northern regions of the Russian Federation.The research was supported by the Program for Fundamental Studies Support of the Presidium of the RAS (No. 44 P) “Exploratory Fundamental Research in Aimed at the Development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation”

Overview of the European project FUMAPEX

International audienceThe quality of the urban air pollution forecast critically depends on the mapping of emissions, the urban air pollution models, and the meteorological data. The quality of the meteorological data should be largely enhanced by using downscaled data from advanced numerical weather prediction models. These different topics, as well as the application of population exposure models, have traditionally been treated in distinct scientific communities whose expertise needs to be combined to enhance the possibilities of forecasting air pollution episodes in European cities. For this purpose the EU project "Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure'' (FUMAPEX) (http://fumapex.dmi.dk), involving 22 organizations from 10 European countries, was initiated. The main objectives of the project are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction models to urban air pollution and population exposure models, the building of improved Urban Air Quality Information and Forecasting Systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. This paper overviews the project items and first two-years results, it is an introduction to the whole ACP issue

Purely finitely additive measures as generalized elements in a maximin problem

We study the asymptotic behavior of maximin values of a payoff function, when admissible controls tend to infinity. The payoff function is superposition of a continuos function and a function that is uniform limit of step functions. An extension in the class of finitely additive measures is used. © 2013 Artem Baklanov

On density properties of weakly absolutely continuous measures

It is shown that some set of all step functions (and the set of all uniform limits of ones) allows an embedding into some compact subset (with respect to weak-star topology) of the set of all finitely additive measures of bounded variation in the form of an everywhere dense subset. Precisely, we considered the set of all step functions (the set of all uniform limits of such functions) such that integral of absolute value of the functions with respect to non-negative finitely additive measure λ is equal to the unit. For these sets, the possibility of the embedding is proved for the cases of non-atomic and finite range measure λ; in the cases the compacts do not coincide. Namely, in the nonatomic measure case, it is shown that the mentioned sets of functions allow the embedding into the unit ball (in the strong norm-variation) of weakly absolutely continuous measures with respect to λ in the form of a everywhere dense subset. In the finite range measure case, it is shown that the mentioned sets of functions allow the embedding into the unit sphere of weakly absolutely continuous measures with respect to λ in the form of a everywhere dense subset. In the last case the sphere is closed in the weak-star topology. An interpretation of these results is given in terms of an approach connected with an extension of linear control problems in the class of finitely additive measures

On question about extension of maximin problem with phase constraints

We study the asymptotic behavior of maximin values of a payoff function, when relaxed constraints are tightened. The payoff function depends on the trajectories of controlled systems of the first and second player. An extension in the class of the Radon measures is used. The asymptotic equivalence between two types of the constraints relaxations is shown. © 2013 Artem Baklanov

The mixing height in urban areas: comparative study for Copenhagen

International audienceThe urban boundary layer (UBL), in comparison with "rural" homogeneous atmospheric boundary layers, is characterised by greatly enhanced mixing, resulting from both the large surface roughness and increased surface heating, and by horizontal heterogeneity of the mixing height (MH) and other meteorological fields due to variations in surface roughness and heating from rural to central city areas. So, the UBL is considered as a specific case of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over a non-homogeneous terrain. Therefore it is important to study how much the MH characteristics differ in urban and rural, marine or other more homogeneous areas. Most of the parameterisations of MH were developed for the conditions of a homogeneous terrain, so their applicability for urban conditions should be verified. Just a few authors suggested specific methods for MH determination in urban areas. In this paper the MH over urban, semi-urban, rural and marine areas of the Copenhagen metropolitan area is considered. Proceeding from the data from the Jægersborg radiosounding station measurement and analysis of different methods of the MH estimation, the peculiarities of the UBL and intercomparison of different MH estimation methods for urban and rural conditions are discussed. It is shown that the urban MH is considerably bigger for stably stratified (nocturnal) boundary layer cases in comparison with the "non-urban" MH. Daytime (usually the convective boundary layer) MH does not differ significatly in urban and "non-urban" sectors

Downscaling system for modeling of atmospheric composition on regional, urban and street scales

In this study, the downscaling modeling chain for prediction of weather and atmospheric composition is described and evaluated against observations. The chain consists of interfacing models for forecasting at different spatiotemporal scales that run in a semi-operational mode. The forecasts were performed for European (EU) regional and Danish (DK) subregional-urban scales by the offline coupled numerical weather prediction HIRLAM and atmospheric chemical transport CAMx models, and for Copenhagen citystreet scale by the online coupled computational fluid dynamics M2UE model. The results showed elevated NOx and lowered O-3 concentrations over major urban, industrial, and transport land and water routes in both the EU and DK domain forecasts. The O-3 diurnal cycle predictions in both these domains were equally good, although O-3 values were closer to observations for Denmark. At the same time, the DK forecast of NOx and NO2 levels was more biased (with a better prediction score of the diurnal cycle) than the EU forecast, indicating a necessity to adjust emission rates. Further downscaling to the street level (Copenhagen) indicated that the NOx pollution was 2-fold higher on weekends and more than 5 times higher during the working day with high pollution episodes. Despite high uncertainty in road traffic emissions, the street-scale model effectively captured the NOx and NO2 diurnal cycles and the onset of elevated pollution episodes. The demonstrated downscaling system could be used in future online integrated meteorology and air quality research and operational forecasting, as well as for impact assessents on environment, population, and decision making for emergency preparedness and safety measures planning.Peer reviewe

Assessment of possible airborne impact from nuclear risk sites ? Part I: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

International audienceThe main purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for a multidisciplinary nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test this methodology through estimation of a nuclear risk to population in the Northern European countries in case of a severe accident at the nuclear risk sites. For assessment of the probabilistic risk and vulnerability, a combination of social-geophysical factors and probabilities are considered. The main focus of this paper is the description of methodology for evaluation of the atmospheric transport of radioactive releases from the risk site regions. The suggested methodology is given from the probabilistic point of view. The main questions stated are: What are probabilities and times for radionuclide atmospheric transport to different neighbouring countries and territories in case of the hypothetical accidental release at the nuclear risk site? Which geographical territories or countries are at the highest risk from the hypothetical accidental releases? To answer this question we suggest applying the following research tools for probabilistic atmospheric studies. First, it is atmospheric modelling to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originated over the sites. Second, it is statistical analysis tools to explore temporal and spatial structure of calculated trajectories in order to evaluate different probabilistic impact indicators: atmospheric transport pathways, airflow, fast transport, typical transport time, maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, etc. These indicators are applicable for further GIS-analysis and integration to estimate regional risk and vulnerability in case of accidental releases at the risk sites and for planning the emergency response and preparedness systems

Assessment of possible airborne impact from nuclear risk sites ? Part II: probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns in Euro-Arctic region

International audienceThe probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns from most important nuclear risk sites in the Euro-Arctic region is performed employing the methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the NARP Programme (Baklanov and Mahura, 2003). The risk sites are the nuclear power plants in the Northwest Russia, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, United Kingdom, and Germany as well as the Novaya Zemlya test site of Russia. The geographical regions of interest are the Northern and Central European countries and Northwest Russia. In this study, the employed research tools are the trajectory model to calculate a multiyear dataset of forward trajectories that originated over the risk site locations, and a set of statistical methods (including exploratory, cluster, and probability fields analyses) for analysis of trajectory modelling results. The probabilistic analyses of trajectory modelling results for eleven sites are presented as a set of various indicators of the risk sites possible impact on geographical regions and countries of interest. The nuclear risk site possible impact (on a particular geographical region, territory, country, site, etc.) due to atmospheric transport from the site after hypothetical accidental release of radioactivity can be properly estimated based on a combined interpretation of the indicators (simple characteristics, atmospheric transport pathways, airflow and fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance and maximum possible impact zone, typical transport time and precipitation factor fields) for different time periods (annual, seasonal, and monthly) for any selected site (both separately for each site or grouped for several sites) in the Euro-Arctic region. Such estimation could be the useful input information for the decision-making process, risk assessment, and planning of emergency response systems for sites of nuclear, chemical, and biological danger