Dynamic impacts of a financial reform of the CAP on regional land use, income and overall growth

http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/4364

Dynamic impacts of a financial reform of the CAP on regional land use, income and overall growth

In this paper we investigate the impacts of abolishing the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the post-2013 European Union (EU) financial perspective and the impacts of re-investing the released funds on research and development (R&D). We apply a linked system of models to analyze the impacts for the EU member states. The linked system consists of five land-use sector models (agriculture, forestry, urban area, tourism and transport infrastructure), which are connected to a macro-econometric model. Additionally, a land cover model is used to disaggregate land use countries to a 1 km² grid. Three scenarios are analysed. In the “baseline” currently decided policies are assumed to be continued until 2025. In the “tax rebate” scenario agricultural support (first pillar) is removed, and the member states’ contributions to EU lowered. In the “R&D investments” scenario agricultural support is also removed, and the released funds are used to increase general R&D efforts in the EU. We find that in both liberalization scenarios, agricultural producer prices drop compared to the baseline. Agricultural production drops too, but less so in the “R&D investment” scenario due to productivity gains resulting from the increased R&D spending. In some countries, the productivity gains totally offset the negative impact of liberalisation on agricultural production. Smaller agricultural production implies less agricultural land use, and the more so in the “R&D Investment” scenario where productivity increases. The fall in agricultural production and prices negatively affects economic activity and households’ purchasing power, but the reduced direct taxation compensates this effect and results in a GDP gain of 0.53% and 0.8 million additional jobs. In “R&D investment” GDP gain reaches 2.57% and yields 2.95 million additional jobs in EU in 2025. The GDP, consumption and employment gains in the “R&D Investment” scenario widely exceed the losses in the agriculture sectors. The analysis indicates that if no external effects of agriculture are considered, then the CAP is an inefficient use of tax money, and that a considerable contribution to reaching the goals of the Lisbon agenda would be achieved if the same amount of money was instead invested in R&D.CAP reform, economical growth, land use, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Linking models for land use analysis: experiences from the SENSOR project

In order to quantify the effects of a comprehensive set of policies on land use, interaction between sectors needs to be accounted for, while maintaining a high level of detail for each sector. This calls for a combination of sector specific and sector wide models. This paper describes such a modelling system, with emphasis on the linking of the models to a coherent system. Five sectors of significant importance for land use are modelled individually: Forestry, agriculture, urban land use, transport infrastructure, and tourism. All models are connected as sub-modules to an economy-wide partial econometric model. In addition, a land cover model is used to disaggregate land use down to 1km grid resolution. The linking of such a diverse set of models in a consistent way poses conceptual as well as practical issues. The conceptual issues concern questions such as which items of the models to link, how to obtain a stable joint baseline scenario, and how to obtain a joint equilibrium solution for all models simultaneously in simulation. Practical issues concern the actual implementation of the conceptually sound linkages and provision of a workable technical solution. The linked system allows us to introduce a shock in either of the models, and the set of results will provide a joint solution for all sectors modelled in SENSOR. In this manner, the models take a complex policy scenario as argument and compute a comprehensive set of variables involving all five land use sectors on regional level, which in turn forms a basis for distilling out the impact on sustainability in the form of indicators. Without the extensive automation and technical linkages, it would not have been possible to obtain a joint equilibrium, or it would have required exorbitant amounts of working time.Model linking, sustainable land use, cross sector modelling, iterative recalibration, Land Economics/Use,

Interobserver agreement for 10% categories of angiographic carotid stenosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Although the reliability of the assessment of severe 70% to 99% carotid stenosis by carotid angiography has been proven excellent, this may not necessarily be the case for a more detailed classification of carotid stenoses by 10% categories. METHODS: Angiograms of the carotid arteries were assessed pairwise by three independent, experienced observers. The measurements of the degree of stenosis of both the carotid bifurcation and the internal carotid artery were made according to the European Carotid Surgery Trial method. Kappa statistics were used to assess the agreement beyond chance for severe (70% to 99%) carotid stenosis (kappa 1) and for 10% categories of carotid stenosis (kappa 2). The penalty scores were adjusted by weights for the relative difference in risk (RDR) of stroke in the ipsilateral carotid distribution between the 10% categories (kappa 3). An adjustment of the RDR method was made by assuming that only patients with a severe carotid stenosis would undergo surgery, and the penalty would be 0 if no disagreement would exist about the indication for surgery (kappa 4). An even further adjustment (kappa 5) was made by assuming that assessment of the rate of carotid stenosis by one or both observers would lead to different treatment recommendations in 50% of the cases, and accordingly the penalty for disagreement (RDR) was halved. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-one carotid bifurcations in 65 patients with a transient ischemic attack or nondisabling stroke were assessed. The intraclass correlation between the exact estimates of carotid stenosis was .90 (95% confidence interval, .85 to .92). The mean difference in stenosis between the two raters was 0.8% (95% confidence interval, -2.1% to 3.7%). kappa 1 to kappa 5 equaled 0.80, 0.40, 0.79, 0.91, and 0.92, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Interobserver agreement for distinct 10% categories of angiographic carotid stenosis is moderate, but when realistic risk- and decision-based weights are used, agreement between experienced observers can be almost perfect

Transpleural lung biopsy by the thorascopic route in patients with diffuse interstitial pulmonary disease

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