Probit models for capture-recapture data subject to imperfect detection, individual heterogeneity and misidentification

As noninvasive sampling techniques for animal populations have become more popular, there has been increasing interest in the development of capture-recapture models that can accommodate both imperfect detection and misidentification of individuals (e.g., due to genotyping error). However, current methods do not allow for individual variation in parameters, such as detection or survival probability. Here we develop misidentification models for capture-recapture data that can simultaneously account for temporal variation, behavioral effects and individual heterogeneity in parameters. To facilitate Bayesian inference using our approach, we extend standard probit regression techniques to latent multinomial models where the dimension and zeros of the response cannot be observed. We also present a novel Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs algorithm for fitting these models using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Using closed population abundance models for illustration, we re-visit a DNA capture-recapture population study of black bears in Michigan, USA and find evidence of misidentification due to genotyping error, as well as temporal, behavioral and individual variation in detection probability. We also estimate a salamander population of known size from laboratory experiments evaluating the effectiveness of a marking technique commonly used for amphibians and fish. Our model was able to reliably estimate the size of this population and provided evidence of individual heterogeneity in misidentification probability that is attributable to variable mark quality. Our approach is more computationally demanding than previously proposed methods, but it provides the flexibility necessary for a much broader suite of models to be explored while properly accounting for uncertainty introduced by misidentification and imperfect detection. In the absence of misidentification, our probit formulation also provides a convenient and efficient Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of traditional closed population capture-recapture data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS783 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Life History Benefits of Residency in a Partially Migrating Pond-Breeding Amphibian

Species with partial migration, where a portion of a population migrates and the other remains residential, provide the opportunity to evaluate conditions for migration and test mechanisms influencing migratory decisions. We conducted a five-year study of two populations of red-spotted newts (Notophthalmus viridescens), composed of individuals that either remain as residents in the breeding pond over the winter or migrate to the terrestrial habitat. We used multistate mark-recapture methods to (1) test for differences in survival probability between migrants and residents, (2) determine if migrants breed every year or skip opportunities for reproduction, and (3) estimate the frequency of individuals switching migratory tactic. We used estimates of life history parameters from the natural populations in combination with previous experimental work to evaluate processes maintaining partial migration at the population level and to assess mechanisms influencing the decision to migrate. Based on capture-recapture information on over 3000 individuals, we found that newts can switch migratory tactics over their lifetime. We conclude that migrants and residents coexist through conditional asymmetries, with residents having higher fitness and inferior individuals adopting the migrant tactic. We found that newts are more likely to switch from residency to migrating than the reverse and males were more likely to remain as residents. Migration differences between the sexes are likely driven by reproduction benefits of residency for males and high energetic costs of breeding resulting in lower breeding frequencies for females. Environmental conditions also influence partial migration within a population; we found support for density-dependent processes in the pond strongly influencing the probability of migrating. Our work illustrates how migration can be influenced by a complex range of individual and environmental factors and enhances our understanding of the conditions necessary for the evolution and maintenance of partial migration within populations

Patch utilization and flower visitations by wild bees in a honey bee-dominated, grassland landscape

Understanding habitat needs and patch utilization of wild and managed bees has been identified as a national research priority in the United States. We used occupancy models to investigate patterns of bee use across 1030 transects spanning a gradient of floral resource abundance and richness and distance from apiaries in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States. Estimates of transect use by honey bees were nearly 1.0 during our 3.5-month sampling period, suggesting honey bees were nearly ubiquitous across transects. Wild bees more frequently used transects with higher flower richness and more abundant flowers; however, the effect size of the native flower abundance covariate (β̂ native = 3.90 ± 0.65 [1SE]) was four times greater than the non-native flower covariate (β̂ non−native = 0.99 ± 0.17). We found some evidence that wild bee use was lower at transects near commercial apiaries, but the effect size was imprecise (β̂ distance = 1.4 ± 0.81). Honey bees were more frequently detected during sampling events with more non-native flowers and higher species richness but showed an uncertain relationship with native flower abundance. Of the 4039 honey bee and flower interactions, 85% occurred on non-native flowers, while only 43% of the 738 wild bee observations occurred on non-native flowers. Our study suggests wild bees and honey bees routinely use the same resource patches in the PPR but often visit different flowering plants. The greatest potential for resource overlap between honey bees and wild bees appears to be for non-native flowers in the PPR. Our results are valuable to natural resource managers tasked with supporting habitat for managed and wild pollinators in agroecosystems

Visual Attention Bias for Self-Made Artworks

Action Contro

Consumer survey on hearing aid benefit and satisfaction

DATA AVAILABIITY STATEMENT : The data sets analyzed and the analysis scripts used during this study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.Portions of this project were presented at the American Academy of Audiology conference (2021, virtual).PURPOSE : There is unexplained variability in self-reported hearing aid outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate determinants of hearing aid benefit and satisfaction ratings using a large-scale customer survey and to analyze the relation between demographic variables, hearing aid attributes, benefit, and satisfaction. METHOD : The study used a retrospective design wherein 2,109 hearing aid users, recruited by Hearing Tracker and Hearing Loss Association of America, completed an online survey. The survey included questions about demographics, perceived hearing loss, devices, service delivery, cost, benefit, and satisfaction. The analytic approach included descriptive summaries and regression models to evaluate potential determinants of hearing aid benefit and satisfaction ratings. RESULTS : Hearing aid sound quality, fit and comfort, and battery life were related to both benefit and satisfaction. Respondents who rated these outcomes favorably were also likely to benefit from, and be satisfied with, their hearing aids. Benefit was also related to degree of hearing loss, hearing aid experience, and cost. Hearing aid users with greater self-perceived hearing loss, more hearing aid experience, and more expensive hearing aids reported more benefit. Satisfaction was also related to age, employment status, and brand. Younger respondents, those who were students, and those using certain brands reported more satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS : The results highlight importance of good hearing aid outcomes (quality, fit/comfort, and battery life) for benefit and satisfaction ratings. Professionals who fit hearing aids should strive to focus on achieving these outcomes and researchers should strive to explain the remaining variability in ratings of benefit and satisfaction.https://pubs.asha.org/journal/jslhrhj2023Speech-Language Pathology and Audiolog

Improving inferences in population studies of rare species that are detected imperfectly.

Abstract. For the vast majority of cases, it is highly unlikely that all the individuals of a population will be encountered during a study. Furthermore, it is unlikely that a constant fraction of the population is encountered over times, locations, or species to be compared. Hence, simple counts usually will not be good indices of population size. We recommend that detection probabilities (the probability of including an individual in a count) be estimated and incorporated into inference procedures. However, most techniques for estimating detection probability require moderate sample sizes, which may not be achievable when studying rare species. In order to improve the reliability of inferences from studies of rare species, we suggest two general approaches that researchers may wish to consider that incorporate the concept of imperfect detectability: (1) borrowing information about detectability or the other quantities of interest from other times, places, or species; and (2) using state variables other than abundance (e.g., species richness and occupancy). We illustrate these suggestions with examples and discuss the relative benefits and drawbacks of each approach

Colonization and extinction in dynamic habitats: an occupancy approach for a Great Plains stream fish assemblage

Despite the importance of habitat in determining species distribution and persistence, habitat dynamics are rarely modeled in studies of metapopulations. We used an integrated habitat-occupancy model to simultaneously quantify habitat change, site fidelity, and local colonization and extinction rates for larvae of a suite of Great Plains stream fishes in the Arikaree River, eastern Colorado, USA, across three years. Sites were located along a gradient of flow intermittency and groundwater connectivity. Hydrology varied across years: the first and third being relatively wet and the second dry. Despite hydrologic variation, our results indicated that site suitability was random from one year to the next. Occupancy probabilities were also independent of previous habitat and occupancy state for most species, indicating little site fidelity. Climate and groundwater connectivity were important drivers of local extinction and colonization, but the importance of groundwater differed between periods. Across species, site extinction probabilities were highest during the transition from wet to dry conditions (range: 0.52-0.98), and the effect of groundwater was apparent with higher extinction probabilities for sites not fed by groundwater. Colonization probabilities during this period were relatively low for both previously dry sites (range: 0.02-0.38) and previously wet sites (range: 0.02-0.43). In contrast, no sites dried or remained dry during the transition from dry to wet conditions, yielding lower but still substantial extinction probabilities (range: 0.16-0.63) and higher colonization probabilities (range: 0.06-0.86), with little difference among sites with and without groundwater. This approach of jointly modeling both habitat change and species occupancy will likely be useful to incorporate effects of dynamic habitat on metapopulation processes and to better inform appropriate conservation actions.KEYWORDS: Stream fishes, Species occurrence, Great Plains, USA, Intermittent streams, Groundwater, Joint habitat occupancy modeling, Metapopulation

Range-Wide Declines of Northern Spotted Owl Populations in the Pacific Northwest: A Meta-Analysis

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) inhabits older coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest and has been at the center of forest management issues in this region. The immediate threats to this federally listed species include habitat loss and competition with barred owls (Strix varia), which invaded from eastern North America. We conducted a prospective meta-analysis to assess population trends and factors affecting those trends in northern spotted owls using 26 years of survey and capture-recapture data from 11 study areas across the owls\u27 geographic range to analyze demographic traits, rates of population change, and occupancy parameters for spotted owl territories. We found that northern spotted owl populations experienced significant declines of 6–9% annually on 6 study areas and 2–5% annually on 5 other study areas. Annual declines translated to ≤35% of the populations remaining on 7 study areas since 1995. Barred owl presence on spotted owl territories was the primary factor negatively affecting apparent survival, recruitment, and ultimately, rates of population change. Analysis of spotted and barred owl detections in an occupancy framework corroborated the capture-recapture analyses with barred owl presence increasing territorial extinction and decreasing territorial colonization of spotted owls. While landscape habitat components reduced the effect of barred owls on these rates of decline, they did not reverse the negative trend. Our analyses indicated that northern spotted owl populations potentially face extirpation if the negative effects of barred owls are not ameliorated while maintaining northern spotted owl habitat across their range

The past and future roles of competition and habitat in the range-wide occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls

Slow ecological processes challenge conservation. Short-term variability can obscure the importance of slower processes that may ultimately determine the state of a system. Furthermore, management actions with slow responses can be hard to justify. One response to slow processes is to explicitly concentrate analysis on state dynamics. Here, we focus on identifying drivers of Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) territorial occupancy dynamics across 11 study areas spanning their geographic range and forecasting response to potential management actions. Competition with Barred Owls (Strix varia) has increased Spotted Owl territory extinction probabilities across all study areas and driven recent declines in Spotted Owl populations. Without management intervention, the Northern Spotted Owl subspecies will be extirpated from parts of its current range within decades. In the short term, Barred Owl removal can be effective. Over longer time spans, however, maintaining or improving habitat conditions can help promote the persistence of northern spotted owl populations. In most study areas, habitat effects on expected Northern Spotted Owl territorial occupancy are actually greater than the effects of competition from Barred Owls. This study suggests how intensive management actions (removal of a competitor) with rapid results can complement a slower management action (i.e., promoting forest succession)